Most statistical methods to design and analyze randomized controlled trials with time-to-event data, and synthesize their results in meta-analyses, use the hazard ratio (HR) as the measure of treatment effect. However, the HR relies on the proportional hazard assumption which is often violated, especially in cancer trials. In addition, the HR might be challenging to interpret and is frequently misinterpreted as a risk ratio (RR). In meta-analysis, conventional methods ignore that HRs are estimated over different time supports when the component trials have different follow-up durations. These issues also pertain to advanced statistical methods, such as network meta-analysis and surrogate endpoints validation. Novel methods that rely on the difference in restricted mean survival times (RMST) would help addressing these issues.
In this dissertation, I first developed a Bayesian network meta-analysis model using the difference in RMST. This model synthesizes all the available evidence from multiple time points and treatment comparisons simultaneously through within-study covariance and between-study covariance for the differences in RMST. I proposed an estimator of the within-study covariance and estimated the model under the Bayesian framework. The simulation studies showed adequate performance in terms of mean bias and mean squared error. I illustrated the model on a network of randomized trials of second-line treatments of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer.
Second, I introduced a novel two-stage meta-analytical model to evaluate trial-level surrogacy. I measured trial-level surrogacy by the coefficient of determination at multiple time points based on the differences in RMST. The model borrows strength across data available at multiple time points and enables assessing how the strength of surrogacy changes over time. Simulation studies showed that the estimates of coefficients of determination are unbiased and have high precision in almost all of the scenarios we examined. I demonstrated my model in two individual patient data meta-analyses in gastric cancer. Both methods, for network meta-analysis and surrogacy evaluation, have the advantage of not involving extrapolation beyond the observed time support in component trials and of not relying on the proportional hazard assumption.
Finally, motivated by the common misinterpretation of the HR as a RR, I investigated the theoretical relationship between the HR and the RR and compared empirically the treatment effects measured by the HR and the RR in a large sample of oncology RCTs. When there is evidence of superiority for experimental group, misinterpreting the HR as the RR leads to overestimating the benefits by about 20%. / 2026-02-08T00:00:00Z
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bu.edu/oai:open.bu.edu:2144/48048 |
| Date | 08 February 2024 |
| Creators | Tang, Xiaoyu |
| Contributors | Trinquart, Ludovic |
| Source Sets | Boston University |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis/Dissertation |
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