International Fisher Effect (IFE) is a theory in international finance which asserts that the spot exchange rate between countries should move in opposite direction with the interest rate differential between these countries. The aim of this thesis is to analyze whether differences in nominal interest rates between countries and the movement of spot exchange rates between their currencies tend to move together over the long run. The presence of IFE is tested among the G-5 countries and Turkey for the period from 1985:1 to 2007:12. The long run relationship is estimated with the Johansen co-integration method and supportive evidence is found for all country pairs. Individually modeled equations are further tested with the Dynamic SUR method. Those DSUR equations that include the Turkish currency provide supportive evidence for IFE that higher interest rates in favor of Turkey would cause depreciation of the Turkish Lira. The magnitude of the effect is found to be lower than expected which indicates that there might be other factors in economy, such as inflation rates, that affect the exchange rate movements.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:METU/oai:etd.lib.metu.edu.tr:http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12610157/index.pdf |
| Date | 01 December 2008 |
| Creators | Ersan, Eda |
| Contributors | Danisoglu, Seza Assistant Prof. Dr |
| Publisher | METU |
| Source Sets | Middle East Technical Univ. |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | M.B.A. Thesis |
| Format | text/pdf |
| Rights | To liberate the content for public access |
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