台灣的經濟型態屬於海島型經濟，受限於地域狹小、天然資源匱乏，在要素或產品市場都相當依賴對外投資。自1980年代起，由於國內產業環境惡化，企業為尋求低廉生產成本，維持競爭優勢，形成一股海外投資潮。1990年後，中國大陸的改革及對外開放經濟的政策，更促使台商的投資大批湧向中國大陸。2006年台商對中國大陸投資占整體海外投資比重高達63.91%，顯示海外投資高度集中於中國大陸。在廠商追求最大利潤目的下，產能外移後自有將其產品回銷台灣，搶占市場之獲利誘因。回銷可能取代國內生產，使製造業產值及就業人口減少，甚至削減貿易順差效果。而加入WTO後，政府逐步開放中國大陸商品進口，更使回銷比率大幅提升。政府應對影響廠商回銷因子有所認知並進行政策檢討，避免對相關產業造成重大不良影響。因此，本文的研究目的在於以2004至2006年經濟部統計處「製造業對外投資實況調查」中，最主要投資地區為中國大陸之製造業廠商之追蹤資料，搭配Tobit模型的估計研究，探討以下問題：一、瞭解台商對中國大陸投資概況、台灣對中國大陸產品開放進口概況及2003至2005年大陸投資台商回銷比率變化狀況；二、探究影響廠商回銷台灣金額比率之因素；三、對產品回銷所衍生問題及提昇國內產業競爭力相關議題，提供具體的政策建議。
本文研究主要發現，廠商次要投資地區不論為歐美或東南亞地區對回銷比率均無顯著影響。廠商特性中研發密集度、廠商海外事業規模、開始投資中國大陸時間對回銷比率均無顯著影響；國際化程度及廠商國內事業規模均對回銷比率呈顯著負向影響。投資動機中當地市場發展潛力大、配合國外客戶要求或隨台灣客戶赴當地投資對回銷比率呈顯著負向影響；原料供應方便，價格便宜或利用當地價廉充沛勞工對回銷比率呈顯著正向影響；當地土地取得容易則對回銷比率無顯著影響。水平分工中，產品不同，但台灣生產的附加價值高，對回銷比率呈顯著正向影響；產品相同，但台灣產品較高級以及產品種類及品質完全相同均對回銷比率影響不顯著。垂直分工關係中，台灣生產零組件與半成品，海外事業裝配及生產成品，以及海外事業生產零組件與半成品，台灣裝配及生產成品，對回銷比率均具有顯著正向影響，且後者之係數估計值高於前者。中國大陸投資事業之行銷方式由台灣母公司負責行銷，對回銷比率有顯著正向影響關係。對外投資之23個行業中，有16個行業之回銷比率，相對於食品及飲料製造業顯著為高，其中係數值前五大為精密器械業、電子零組件業、家具及裝設品業、運輸工具製造修配業與電腦通信及視聽電子產品業，顯示這些產業之回銷比率相較於其他產業為高。最後，由時間虛擬變數估計結果發現，相對於2003年，2004年回銷比率並無顯著地高於2003年，但2005年回銷比率顯著地高於2003年。 / Taiwan economy is an inland-style economy, curbed by limited land and lack of natural resource; Taiwan’s factor and product market depend heavily on investment to foreign countries. Starting from the 1980s, due to the deterioration of domestic industry environment, enterprises were searching for lower production costs to maintain competitive advantages; a trend of overseas investment hence formed. After 1990, Mainland China’s reforms and open economic policy have led to a huge inflow of Taiwanese investment into Mainland China. In 2006, Taiwan businesses’ investment in Mainland China is as high as 63.91% of Taiwan’s total overseas investment signaling high concentration of Taiwan overseas investment in Mainland China. Under the objective of maximizing profit, the enterprises have incentives to reverse import their products back to Taiwan for grabbing market share after moving their production capacity overseas. The reverse import could replace domestic production and lead to reduction in manufacturing output value and employment, even reduce the trade surplus effect. After join WTO, the government has gradually opened the market for products from Mainland China which leads to a sharp increase in the reverse import ratio. The government should understand the factors affecting enterprises’ decision on reverse import products back to Taiwan and carry out policy reviews to avoid creating significantly negative impacts on related industries. Accordingly, the research of this thesis aims to use the panel data of manufacturing firms who are primarily investing in China from the “Survey of Current Condition on Manufacturing Industry Overseas Investment” compiled by Department of Statistics of Ministry of Economic Affairs between 2004 and 2006 and combine with Tobit model to conduct an estimation research and probe into the following issues: 1. Understand the general condition of Taiwanese business’ investment in China, the general condition of Taiwan’s progress in opening up market for products from Mainland China and the variation of reverse import ratios of Taiwanese business investing in Mainland China between 2003 and 2005; 2. Probe into the factors affecting the reverse import ratio; 3. Offer concrete policy suggestions for problems generated from product reverse import from China to Taiwan and the related issues of enhancing competitive capability of domestic industries.
The major finding of this study is that the secondary investment area has no significantly impact to reverse import ratio no matter the area is Europe, America or Southeast Asia. And if analyzing within enterprise characteristics, R&D concentration, foreign business scale and the time started to invest in Mainland China all have no significantly impact to reverse import ratio; the degree of internationalization and the enterprises’ scale in domestic have significantly negative impact to reverse import ratio. Within investment motives, local market development potential, cooperation with foreign customers’ request or the following of the footstep of their Taiwanese customers have significantly negative impact to reverse import ratio; convenient material supply, cheap input prices or the utilization of local cheap and abundant labor has significantly positive impact to reverse import ratio; the ease of obtaining land has no significantly impact to reverse import ratio. Looking into horizontal integration characteristics, for different type of products, the higher value added if produced in Taiwan has significantly positive impact to reverse import ratio; for same type of products but Taiwan products have higher grade and same quality products, they all have no significantly impact to reverse import ratio. Within the vertical integration relationship, if Taiwan companies make components and semi finished products and their overseas divisions are in charge of assembly and making finished products or the reverse situation all have significantly positive impact to reverse import ratio, and the later situation has higher estimated coefficient value than the former situation. If the parent company in Taiwan is taking charge of the marketing and sell of its invested business in Mainland China, the situation has significantly positive impact to reverse import ratio. Within the 23 industries which invested abroad, compared with food & beverage manufacturing industry, 16 industries have significantly higher reverse import ratios, and the industries which have the top 5 coefficient value are precision equipment, electronic parts & components, furniture & fixture, transportation tool manufacturing & repairing and Computer, Communication, Video & Radio electronic product industries; in other words, these five industries have higher reverse import ratios compared with other industries. Finally, from estimation results on time dummy variable, the study found that the reverse import ratio of 2004 is not significantly higher than that of 2003, however, the reverse import ratio of 2005 is significantly higher than that of 2003.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0094921030 |
| Creators | 趙宇涵, Chao, Yu Han |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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