Despite increasing levels of military spending and a growing number of recurring conflicts, research has until now failed to consider the impact of arms transfers on the durability of peace. Investigating the recurrence of conflicts allows us to delve deeper into the enduring impact of arms transfers, shedding light on whether weapons induce, suppress, or merely postpone conflict relapse. This thesis studies the impact of post-conflict arms transfers on the likelihood of conflict recurrence, hypothesizing that the effect is conditional on the outcome of the previous conflict. By conducting a multinomial logistic regression analysis, the initial results of this study imply that post-conflict arms transfers can have a stabilizing effect, regardless of whether the initial conflict ended in a military victory or a negotiated settlement. However, a closer analysis of results implies that the advantages and disadvantages of arms transfers are highly contextual and depend on a series of factors that may fuel or contain violence.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:uu-530904 |
| Date | January 2024 |
| Creators | Mustafić, Selma |
| Publisher | Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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