<p>There is a great variety of research about civil war and peacemaking. This thesis also deals with those topics, however, it focuses on one specific area about how different third-party interveners affect the duration of civil war.</p><p>Since the main goal of an intervention is to terminate the civil war as fast as possible, it is of great importance to be able to know which type of intervener can terminate it fastest. Throughout the modern history third-party interveners have been a mix of international organizations and major- and minor powers. These different types of interveners and what characterize them will here be discussed, compared and analyzed.</p><p>From a data set containing information about all civil wars between 1945 and 1999 six conflicts have been chosen for further examination. Two of the civil wars are wars where an international organisation was the intervener, two conflicts where major powers where the interveners and two where minor powers where the intervener. These six civil wars are viewed upon with characteristics of the conflict and intervener as basis.</p><p>Important to take into account is the aspect when international organizations in general tend to intervene. A scholar, Regan, pointed out that international organizations tend to intervene in already long lasting civil wars where states have chosen not to intervene or have failed. The result in this thesis shows that depending upon how forceful the intervention is, the shorter the duration of the civil war will be. What shows how forcefull an intervention can be is how strong the intervener is, on which side the intervention takes place and which strategy it choses.</p> / <p>Det finns en uppsjö av akademisk forskning om inbördeskrig och fredskapande. Denna uppsats avhandlar också dessa ämnen men fokus ligger istället på ett speciellt område; hur olika typer av interventionsparter påverkar längden av inbördeskrig.</p><p>Målet med en intervention är att få slut på inbördeskriget så fort som möjligt. För att kunna nå det målet så är det av yttersta vikt att ha kunskap om vilken typ av interventionsparter som gör det snabbast. Interventionsparterna har sedan den moderna tiden varit internationella organisationer, stormakter och småstater. I denna uppsats kommer de olika typerna att diskuteras, jämföras och analyseras. Allt för att sedan kunna dra slutsatser om vad som karaktäriserar dem och vad de har för inflytande på längden av inbördeskrig.</p><p>I uppsatsen kommer sex olika inbördeskrig att analyseras. Dessa fall är hämtade från ett data set som innehåller information om alla inbördeskrig mellan åren 1945 och 1999. Två utav inbördeskrigen är krig där en internationel organisation var interventionspart.</p><p>I två andra inbördeskrig är interventionsparten en stormakt och i de resterande två inbördeskrigen är interventionsparten en småstat. Dessa sex inbördeskrig är sedan analyserade med hjälp av karaktären utav kriget och typen av interventionspart.</p><p>En viktig aspekt för analysen rör internationella organisationer och när de gör interventioner. En forskare, Regan, påpekar att internationella organisationer tenderar att intervenera i inbördeskrig som redan har pågått under en längre tid och där enskilda stater har valt att inte ingripa eller har misslyckats. Analysen i denna uppsats visar att beroende på hur kraftfull interventionen är desto kortare blir längden utav inbördeskriget. Vad som avgör vad som är kraftfullt är hur stark interventionsparten är, vilken sida interventionen sker på och vilken strategi som används.</p>

<p>This composite dissertation explores mediation in internal armed conflicts from a bargaining perspective. Four separate essays investigate why mediation occurs, why it is successful, and why peace guarantors’ commitments are credible. Essay 1 examines the conditions under which mediation takes place. The study argues that whereas it is costly for governments to accept international mediation, it is a less costly intervention tool for potential third parties. This argument implies that mediation will be more likely when and where negotiated settlements are least likely to be reached, a contention that is supported by empirical tests. Essay 2 reviews the contemporary debate on what types of mediators that can disseminate information in a credible manner, and formulates a set of testable hypotheses on mediation partiality. The analysis shows that negotiated settlements are more likely if biased or interested mediators intervene, while neutral mediators are not associated with mediation success. Essay 3 elaborates on the role of biased mediators. It proposes that rebels face a commitment problem when negotiated settlements are to be reached, which government-biased mediators can mitigate. The study finds that such types of mediators outperform rebel-biased mediators in terms of helping combatants to settle the armed conflict. Essay 4 deals with the commitment problem that comes to pass between, on the one hand the primary parties, and on the other, the potential peace guarantors. The study probes the requests and promises for third-party security guarantees and suggests that the reputation of the United Nations (UN) enhances its credibility as peace guarantor compared to non-UN actors. It finds that although the UN is more restrictive with its promises, it is more likely that peacekeeping forces will be provided if the UN is one of the guarantors. In sum, utilizing unique data from two time-periods (post World War II and post Cold War), this dissertation arrives at new insights on the role of mediators in bringing about negotiated settlements of internal armed conflicts.</p>

This composite dissertation explores mediation in internal armed conflicts from a bargaining perspective. Four separate essays investigate why mediation occurs, why it is successful, and why peace guarantors’ commitments are credible. Essay 1 examines the conditions under which mediation takes place. The study argues that whereas it is costly for governments to accept international mediation, it is a less costly intervention tool for potential third parties. This argument implies that mediation will be more likely when and where negotiated settlements are least likely to be reached, a contention that is supported by empirical tests. Essay 2 reviews the contemporary debate on what types of mediators that can disseminate information in a credible manner, and formulates a set of testable hypotheses on mediation partiality. The analysis shows that negotiated settlements are more likely if biased or interested mediators intervene, while neutral mediators are not associated with mediation success. Essay 3 elaborates on the role of biased mediators. It proposes that rebels face a commitment problem when negotiated settlements are to be reached, which government-biased mediators can mitigate. The study finds that such types of mediators outperform rebel-biased mediators in terms of helping combatants to settle the armed conflict. Essay 4 deals with the commitment problem that comes to pass between, on the one hand the primary parties, and on the other, the potential peace guarantors. The study probes the requests and promises for third-party security guarantees and suggests that the reputation of the United Nations (UN) enhances its credibility as peace guarantor compared to non-UN actors. It finds that although the UN is more restrictive with its promises, it is more likely that peacekeeping forces will be provided if the UN is one of the guarantors. In sum, utilizing unique data from two time-periods (post World War II and post Cold War), this dissertation arrives at new insights on the role of mediators in bringing about negotiated settlements of internal armed conflicts.

There is a great variety of research about civil war and peacemaking. This thesis also deals with those topics, however, it focuses on one specific area about how different third-party interveners affect the duration of civil war. Since the main goal of an intervention is to terminate the civil war as fast as possible, it is of great importance to be able to know which type of intervener can terminate it fastest. Throughout the modern history third-party interveners have been a mix of international organizations and major- and minor powers. These different types of interveners and what characterize them will here be discussed, compared and analyzed. From a data set containing information about all civil wars between 1945 and 1999 six conflicts have been chosen for further examination. Two of the civil wars are wars where an international organisation was the intervener, two conflicts where major powers where the interveners and two where minor powers where the intervener. These six civil wars are viewed upon with characteristics of the conflict and intervener as basis. Important to take into account is the aspect when international organizations in general tend to intervene. A scholar, Regan, pointed out that international organizations tend to intervene in already long lasting civil wars where states have chosen not to intervene or have failed. The result in this thesis shows that depending upon how forceful the intervention is, the shorter the duration of the civil war will be. What shows how forcefull an intervention can be is how strong the intervener is, on which side the intervention takes place and which strategy it choses. / Det finns en uppsjö av akademisk forskning om inbördeskrig och fredskapande. Denna uppsats avhandlar också dessa ämnen men fokus ligger istället på ett speciellt område; hur olika typer av interventionsparter påverkar längden av inbördeskrig. Målet med en intervention är att få slut på inbördeskriget så fort som möjligt. För att kunna nå det målet så är det av yttersta vikt att ha kunskap om vilken typ av interventionsparter som gör det snabbast. Interventionsparterna har sedan den moderna tiden varit internationella organisationer, stormakter och småstater. I denna uppsats kommer de olika typerna att diskuteras, jämföras och analyseras. Allt för att sedan kunna dra slutsatser om vad som karaktäriserar dem och vad de har för inflytande på längden av inbördeskrig. I uppsatsen kommer sex olika inbördeskrig att analyseras. Dessa fall är hämtade från ett data set som innehåller information om alla inbördeskrig mellan åren 1945 och 1999. Två utav inbördeskrigen är krig där en internationel organisation var interventionspart. I två andra inbördeskrig är interventionsparten en stormakt och i de resterande två inbördeskrigen är interventionsparten en småstat. Dessa sex inbördeskrig är sedan analyserade med hjälp av karaktären utav kriget och typen av interventionspart. En viktig aspekt för analysen rör internationella organisationer och när de gör interventioner. En forskare, Regan, påpekar att internationella organisationer tenderar att intervenera i inbördeskrig som redan har pågått under en längre tid och där enskilda stater har valt att inte ingripa eller har misslyckats. Analysen i denna uppsats visar att beroende på hur kraftfull interventionen är desto kortare blir längden utav inbördeskriget. Vad som avgör vad som är kraftfullt är hur stark interventionsparten är, vilken sida interventionen sker på och vilken strategi som används.