A piecewise linear model is developed to detect climatic trends and possible structural changes in time series with a priori unknown number and positions of breakpoints. The initial noise is allowed to be interpreted by the first- and second-order autoregressive models. The goodness of fit of candidate models, if the residuals are accepted as normally distributed white noise, is evaluated using the Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion. The uncertainties of all modeled trend parameters are estimated using the Monte-Carlo method. The model is applied to the mesosphere/lower thermosphere winds obtained at Collm (52°N, 15°E) during 1960-2007. A persistent increase after ~1980 is observed in the annual mean zonal wind based on the primary model while only a weak positive trend arises in the meridional component. Major trend breakpoints are identified around 1968-71 and 1976-79 in both the zonal and meridional winds.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa:de:qucosa:16361 |
| Date | 27 September 2017 |
| Creators | Liu, R. Q., Jacobi, Ch. |
| Publisher | Universität Leipzig |
| Source Sets | Hochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion, doc-type:article, info:eu-repo/semantics/article, doc-type:Text |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-212040, qucosa:14999 |
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