The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications (i.e., stock returns) of the following Great Depression.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CLAREMONT/oai:scholarship.claremont.edu:cmc_theses-2728 |
| Date | 01 January 2017 |
| Creators | Cresap, Will |
| Publisher | Scholarship @ Claremont |
| Source Sets | Claremont Colleges |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | CMC Senior Theses |
| Rights | © 2017 Will R Cresap, default |
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