I investigated the effect of climate change in one of the few expanding markets in the world in Brazil. In the last decades the demand for pulpwood increased from zero to 11 million tons, leading to an expansion of 700 thousand hectares of Eucalyptus plantation. In 2024, a new mill will start operating increasing the consumption of wood fiber by 8.2 million tons (+49%). I used mathematical programming to investigate how different scenarios of productivity and land will affect the market. My results showed that around 946,000 hectares (+124%) of additional timberland will be necessary in the upcoming decades. The first impact will be an increase in the production cost of around US$550 million (+16.4%) in 25 years. If the rate of land cover change remains constant, the broad development of the local market would be constrained, discouraging future investments, and reducing potential positive externalities in the region.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:MSSTATE/oai:scholarsjunction.msstate.edu:td-7007 |
| Date | 08 December 2023 |
| Creators | Kimura, Roberto Hajime Sant Anna |
| Publisher | Scholars Junction |
| Source Sets | Mississippi State University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | Theses and Dissertations |
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