Background The base rate of transition from subthreshold psychotic experiences (the exposure) to clinical psychotic disorder (the outcome) in unselected, representative and non-help-seeking population-based samples is unknown.
Method A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of representative, longitudinal population-based cohorts with baseline assessment of subthreshold psychotic experiences and follow-up assessment of psychotic and non-psychotic clinical outcomes.
Results Six cohorts were identified with a 3–24-year follow-up of baseline subthreshold self-reported psychotic experiences. The yearly risk of conversion to a clinical psychotic outcome in exposed individuals (0.56%) was 3.5 times higher than for individuals without psychotic experiences (0.16%) and there was meta-analytic evidence of dose–response with severity/persistence of psychotic experiences. Individual studies also suggest a role for motivational impairment and social dysfunction. The evidence for conversion to non-psychotic outcome was weaker, although findings were similar in direction.
Conclusions Subthreshold self-reported psychotic experiences in epidemiological non-help-seeking samples index psychometric risk for psychotic disorder, with strong modifier effects of severity/persistence. These data can serve as the population reference for selected and variable samples of help-seeking individuals at ultra-high risk, for whom much higher transition rates have been indicated.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa:de:qucosa:27014 |
| Date | January 2012 |
| Creators | Kaymaz, N., Drukker, M., Lieb, Roselind, Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich, Werbeloff, N., Weiser, M., Lataster, T., van Os, J. |
| Publisher | Technische Universität Dresden |
| Source Sets | Hochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | doc-type:article, info:eu-repo/semantics/article, doc-type:Text |
| Source | Psychological Medicine, Bd. 42 (2012), Nr. 11, S. 2239-2253, ISSN: 0033-2917 |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | 10.1017/S0033291711002911 |
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