Return to search

Comparison of the 1st and 2nd order Lee–Carter methods with the robust Hyndman–Ullah method for fitting and forecasting mortality rates

The 1st and 2nd order Lee–Carter methods were compared with the Hyndman–Ullah method in regards to goodness of fit and forecasting ability of mortality rates. Swedish population data was used from the Human Mortality Database. The robust estimation property of the Hyndman–Ullah method was also tested with inclusion of the Spanish flu and a hypothetical scenario of the COVID-19 pandemic. After having presented the three methods and making several comparisons between the methods, it is concluded that the Hyndman–Ullah method is overall superior among the three methods with the implementation of the chosen dataset. Its robust estimation of mortality shocks could also be confirmed.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:mdh-48383
Date January 2020
CreatorsWillersjö Nyfelt, Emil
PublisherMälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation
Source SetsDiVA Archive at Upsalla University
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeStudent thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text
Formatapplication/pdf
Rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Page generated in 0.0024 seconds