The main objective of the thesis was to investigate the feasibility of accurately and precisely fore-
casting the number of both national and provincial bene ciaries of social security grants in South
Africa, using simple autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The series of the
monthly number of bene ciaries of the old age, child support, foster care and disability grants from
April 2004 to March 2010 were used to achieve the objectives of the thesis. The conclusions from
analysing the series were that: (1) ARIMA models for forecasting are province and grant-type spe-
ci c; (2) for some grants, national forecasts obtained by aggregating provincial ARIMA forecasts
are more accurate and precise than those obtained by ARIMA modelling national series; and (3)
for some grants, forecasts obtained by modelling the latest half of the series were more accurate
and precise than those obtained from modelling the full series. / Mathematical Sciences / M.Sc. (Statistics)
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:unisa/oai:umkn-dsp01.int.unisa.ac.za:10500/5810 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Luruli, Fululedzani Lucy |
| Contributors | Ndlovu, P. |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Dissertation |
| Format | 1 online resource (i, 42 leaves) |
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