Thesis (MSc)-- Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Today, development of innovative modes of transport is taking place in order to accelerate the economic
growth of transport users as well as reducing the environmental pollution, through an improved
transport system. These new transport modes are associated with advances in modern technologies that
are able to provide solutions to different problems in the transport industry of developing countries.
This research was motivated by the cost reduction and environmental benefits, accruing from the use
of new technology of Hybrid Lighter Than Air (HLTA) transport mode. The intention then, was to
evaluate the modes choice preference of transport users in the case where the HLTA is introduced in
Rwanda. The new mode of HLTA is believed to make a contribution in solving transport challenges
stemming from the fact that Rwanda is a landlocked country. The landlockedness is associated with
lack of access to seaports, remoteness and isolation from major markets. This continues to impede the
development of the country and the problem is exacerbated by the fact that, road transport mode
dominates the transport operations in Rwanda. From an economic point of view, road transport causes
high transport economic costs for both passengers and freight, and increases, to a large extent,
environmental pollution.
In order to achieve the transport users’ modes choice preferences, this study has developed and used an
efficient survey design process of Stated Preference. Drawing from current literature, Stated Preference
is an accurate tool for data collection of studies that relate to choice preferences. This technique made
it possible to design questionnaires by hypothetically creating choice games using three attributes; i.e.
In Vehicle Travel Time, Waiting Time and Travel Cost for available alternative modes of transport.
Thereafter, the collection of data took place by interviewing the transport users of three routes that
accommodate heavy traffic in the study area, Rwanda.
The SPSS version 21 computer programme was used to analyse mode choice preference data and then
for a matter of checking the results, STATA S/E 11.1 was used. Among the results, these computer
programmes reported coefficients of attributes and these were applied in the Binomial logistic
regression mathematical structure in the model building process. The model refinement and validation
processes that followed, have suggested a removal of Waiting Time from the explanatory variables.
This was due to poor performance that Waiting Time has demonstrated in terms of prediction and
significance. Then, magnitudes of utilities of models were determined based on the two remaining
variables. The choice probability value of each alternative on different routes was calculated; and thus
transport demand of each mode was quantified.
According to the results, transport users in Rwanda would prefer and use HLTA in case it starts
operating. For both cargo and passenger transport, HLTA was chosen above other modes set into choice
process, with probabilities of 79.7%, 86.1%, and 58% for HLTA-Passenger on long, medium and short routes respectively and 71%, 56% and 77% for HLTA-Cargo on long, medium and short route
respectively. The passenger transport volume share of HLTA-Passenger projected in the year 2014 was
found to be 6269256 passengers against a total annual passenger traffic demand of 7941752 passengers
on the three routes considered. The annual freight volume of HLTA-Cargo was 10947921 tonnes
against a total of 16935637 tonnes on all the routes considered. These high demand volumes of HLTA
were due to high choice probabilities which in turn, were due to small values of attributes that HLTA
has got compared to those of other modes. It is, therefore, proposed that more research should be
conducted to study the viability of HLTA use in Rwanda. While doing so, such studies should consider
issues of economic viability, environmental benefit research and other studies engaging demand data,
since these data items would be published as the main results of this current work. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die ontwikkeling van innoverende vervoermiddels vind deesdae plaas ten einde die ekonomiese groei
van die gebruikers van vervoer te versnel, asook om maniere te soek om omgewingsbesoedeling te
bekamp deur die verbetering van vervoerstelsels. Hierdie nuwe vervoermiddels word geassosieer met
vooruitgang in moderne tegnologie, wat ten doel het om oplossings te voorsien vir verskeie probleme
in die vervoerindustrie van ontwikkelende lande. Hierdie navorsing is gemotiveer deur
kostevermindering en omgewingsvoordele, wat uit die gebruik van die nuwe tegnologie van Hibriede
Ligter as Lug vervoermiddels (lugskip) voortspruit. Die bedoeling was dan om die keuse van
vervoermiddelvoorkeure deur gebruikers, te evalueer ingeval die bogenoemde lugskip in Rwanda as
vervoermiddel implementeer sou word. Daar word beweer dat hierdie nuwe lugskip vervoermiddel ‘n
aandeel sal hê om die vervoeruitdagingsprobleme van Rwanda, wat landingeslote is, te help oplos.
Hierdie landingeslotenheid word geassosieer met ‘n gebrek aan toegang tot seehawens, afstand en
afsondering van groot markte. Voorts belemmer dit die ontwikkeling van die land en die probleem word
vererger deur die feit dat padvervoer die vervoer bedrywighede in die land oorheers. Padvervoer
veroorsaak hoë vervoer onkoste in die land se ekonomie, vir beide passasiers- en vragvervoer, en daar
is ‘n aansienlike toename in omgewingsbesoedeling.
Ten einde die vervoergebruikers se vervoermiddelkeuse voorkeure te bereik, het hierdie studie 'n
doeltreffende opname-ontwerp proses van Verklaarde Voorkeur ontwikkel en gebruik. Uit kennis van
huidige literatuur, word aanvaar dat Verklaarde Voorkeur 'n akkurate instrument is vir data-versameling
vir studies wat verband hou met die keuse van voorkeure. Hierdie tegniek het dit moontlik gemaak om
vraelyste te ontwerp deur die hipotetiese skepping van keuse speletjies wat drie eienskappe gebruik,
naamlik In-Voertuig Reistyd, Wagtyd en Reiskoste vir beskikbare alternatiewe vervoermiddels. Daarna
het dataversameling plaasgevind deurdat onderhoude met vervoergebruikers van drie swaarverkeerroetes
in Rwanda gevoer is.
Die SPSS weergawe 21 rekenaarprogram is gebruik om die vervoermiddel-keuse voorkeurdata te
analiseer, en daarna, ten einde die uitslae te ondersoek, is die STATA S/E 11.1 program gebruik. As
deel van die uitslae het hierdie rekenaarprogramme berig oor eienskappe van koëffisiënte. Hierdie
uitslae is toegepas in die Binomiale logistieke regressie wiskundige struktuur in ‘n modelbou-proses.
Die model validasieproses wat gevolg het, het voorgestel dat wagtyd weggelaat word as een van die
verklarende veranderlikes. Dit was as gevolg van swak prestasie wat wagtyd getoon het in terme van
voorspelling en betekenis. Daarna is groottes van modelle se nuttigheid bepaal op grond van die twee
oorblywende veranderlikes. Laastens is die keuse waarskynlikheidswaardes van elke alternatief op
verskillende roetes bereken, en sodoende is die vervoeraanvraag van elke vervoermiddel
gekwantifiseer. Volgens die uitslae sou vervoergebruikers in Rwanda die lugskip as vervoermiddel verkies en gebruik,
indien dit implementer sou word. Vir beide vrag- en passasiersvervoer, is die lugskip bo ander vorme
gekies wat in die keuse proses beskikbaar was, met waarskynlikhede van 79.7%, 86.1%, en 58 vir
lugskip-passasier op 'n lang, medium en kort roete onderskeidelik, en waarskynlikhede van 71%, 56%
en 77% vir lugskip-vrag op die lang, medium en kort roetes onderskeidelik. Die projeksie van die
passasier vervoer volume gedeelte van lugskip-passasier vir die jaar 2014 het bevind dat 6269256
passasiers uit 'n totale passasiersverkeer aanvraag van 7941752, geprojekteer vir 2014, op die drie
oorweegde roetes voorspel was. Die vrag volume van lugskip-vrag was 10947921 ton, teenoor 'n totaal
van 16935637 ton op al die oorweegde roetes. Hierdie hoë aanvraag volumes van lugskip vervoer was
as gevolg van hoë keuse waarskynlikhede wat op hul beurt, as gevolg van die klein waardes van
eienskappe van die lugskip in vergelyking met dié van ander vervoermiddels veroorsaak is. Die voorstel
is dus dat meer navorsing gedoen moet word om die lewensvatbaarheid van die gebruik van lugskip
vervoer in Rwanda te bestudeer. Terselfdertyd moet sodanige studies kwessies oorweeg wat die
ekonomiese lewensvatbaar van die vervoermiddel ondersoek, voordele vir die omgewing inhou en
ander studies waar aanvraagdata oorweeg word, aangesien sulke data alreeds gepubliseer sal wees as
die belangrikste resultate van hierdie huidige studie.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/96931 |
| Date | 03 1900 |
| Creators | Rwunguko, Jean d'Amour |
| Contributors | Johann, Andersen, Mahabudul, Bari, Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Civil Engineering. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 227 pages : illustrations |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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