Emissions of carbon dioxide from combustion of fossil fuels, which may contribute to long-term climate change, are projected through 2050 using reduced form models estimated with national-level panel data for the period 1950-1990. We employ a flexible form for income effects, along with fixed time and country effects, and we handle forecast uncertainty explicitly. We find an "inverse-U" relation with a within-sample peak between carbon dioxide emissions (and energy use) per capita and per captia income. Using the income and population growth assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we obtain projections significantly and substantially above those of the IPCC. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 25-27). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). / Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, and the National Science Foundation.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:MIT/oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/3642 |
| Date | 04 1900 |
| Contributors | Schmalensee, Richard., Stoker, Thomas M., Judson, Ruth A. |
| Publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| Source Sets | M.I.T. Theses and Dissertation |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Format | 27 p, [17] p. of plates, 171374 bytes, application/pdf |
| Relation | Report no. 5 |
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