United States intelligence officers and policymakers need reliable forecasts of country, regional, and global stability or instability. Such forecasts require a methodology for identifying and analyzing factors that contribute to stability. The anticipation of this stability level can facilitate crisis warning and diplomatic strategies for various timelines, including five, ten, and twenty year forecasts. While the problem of forecasting can be tackled in various ways, in the interest of time and space, I will only go into a few of them. The approach I will use is multiple linear regression to generate a short-term forecast for the stability levels of the countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). This model could ultimately be used to help formulate policies that enhance stability in developing or transitioning countries.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:vcu.edu/oai:scholarscompass.vcu.edu:etd-2204 |
| Date | 01 January 2006 |
| Creators | Keck, Margaret Erin |
| Publisher | VCU Scholars Compass |
| Source Sets | Virginia Commonwealth University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | Theses and Dissertations |
| Rights | © The Author |
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