The research focuses on the utilisation of open-source information in
augmentation of the all-source counterespionage endeavour. The study has the
principal objective of designing, contextualising and elucidating a micro-theoretical
framework for open-source environmental scanning within the civilian, statutory
counterespionage sphere.
The research is underpinned by the central assumption that the environmental
scanning and the contextual analysis of overt information will enable the
identification, description and prioritisation of espionage risks that would not
necessarily have emerged through the statutory counterespionage process in
which secretly collected information predominates. The environmental scanning
framework is further assumed to offer a theoretical foundation to surmount a
degenerative counterespionage spiral driven by an over-reliance on classified
information. Flowing from the central assumption, five further assumptions formulated
and tested in the research are the following: (1) A methodically demarcated referent premise enables the focusing and
structuring of the counterespionage environmental scanning process amid the
exponential proliferation of overt information.
(2) Effective environmental scanning of overt information for counterespionage
necessitates a distinctive definition of ‘risk’ and ‘threat’, as these are
interlinked yet different concepts. It is therefore asserted that current notions
of ‘threat’ and ‘risk’ are inadequate for feasible employment within an overt
counterespionage environmental scanning framework. (3) A framework for overt counterespionage environmental scanning has as its
primary requirement the ability to identify diverse risks, descriptively and
predicatively, on a strategic as well as a tactical level. (4) The degree of adversity in the relationship between a government and an
adversary constitutes the principal indicator and determinant of an espionage
risk. (5) The logical accommodation of a framework for overt counterespionage
environmental scanning necessitates a distinctive counterintelligence cycle,
as existing conceptualisations of the intelligence cycle are inadequate.
The study’s objective and the testing of these five assumptions are pursued on both the
theoretical and pragmatic-utilitarian levels. The framework for counterespionage,
open-source environmental scanning and risk assessment is presented as part of
a multilayered unison of alternative theoretical propositions on the all-source
intelligence, counterintelligence and counterespionage processes. It is furthermore
advanced from the premise of an alternative proposition on an integrated
approach to open-source intelligence. On a pragmatic-utilitarian level, the
framework’s design is informed and its application elucidated through an
examination of the 21st century espionage reality confronting the nation state,
contemporary statutory counterintelligence measures and the ‘real-life’ difficulties
of open-source intelligence confronting practitioners.
Although with certain qualifications, the assumptions are in the main validated by
the research. The research furthermore affirms this as an exploratory thesis in a
largely unexplored field. / Thesis (Ph.D)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Political Sciences / Unrestricted
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:up/oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/30840 |
| Date | 23 May 2011 |
| Creators | Duvenage, Petrus Carolus |
| Contributors | Hough, Mike (Michael), duvenage@live.co.za |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | © 2011, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. |
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