D.Phil. / Despite a sharp decline in the birthrate, recent projections show that the population groups in the RSA are still expected to grow rapidly in the future. Since its inception in 1974, the National Family Planning Programme has been very successful, and by 1980 more than a million women from all population groups were practising contraception. Although the programme planners set as their goal an annual increase in this figure, it was not clear what the effect of a given increase would be on population growth in the RSA. In this study recent population projections for the RSA were used as the point of departure, and it was established what the increased family planning input would have to be if the prospect of reduced population sizes were held out. Furthermore, it was assumed in the models used that changes would take place over a period of time in respect of the average period of use of contraceptives, and that there would be a shift to more effective methods. The TABRAP and PROJTARG models used for these analyses were extremely suitable for experimentation so that an in-depth study of the family planning situation of Asians, Coloureds and Blacks could be made. There are certain shortcomings in these models, however, and a new model incorporating characteristics from both models was developed to conduct projections up to the year 2010.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:uj/uj:13199 |
| Date | 09 February 2015 |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | University of Johannesburg |
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