對於現有文獻中討論的預測市場模型，嘗試加入風險與聲譽變數，觀察與分析其成效，並參考文獻中的代理人系統實驗方法，對論文中相關部分進行修正、設計並模擬之預測市場模型。 / In this research, we proposed two variables that could be incorporated with prediction
markets: Reputation and Risk. Instead of attracting new players, The reputation system
could stop losing bankrupted player, Player willing to help bankrupted player will gain
reputation, and bankrupted player will lose reputation. Previous works suggest longshot
bias is related to the risk-neutrality of players. Our approach is to experiment dierent
risk distribution. We observe the impact of these variables in an agent-based model
of prediction markets. We use zero-intelligence agents, where human qualities such as
maximizing prot, learning or obeserving are missing. We further discuss the result, and
the impact of risk and reputation.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0097753013 |
| Creators | 呂一軒 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 英文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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