Issuers’ credit ratings change by one or more notches when credit rating agencies provide new ratings. Unique to the literature, I study the influences affecting multi notch versus single notch rating upgrades and downgrades. For Standard & Poors data, I show that rating changes with multiple notches provide more information to the market than single notch rating changes. Consistent with prior literature on the business cycle, I show that investors value good news rating changes (upgrades) more in bad times (recession) and that investors value bad news rating changes (downgrades) more in good times (expansion).
I model and test probit models using variables capturing the characteristics of the previous issuer’s credit rating, liquidity, solvency, profitability, and growth opportunity to determine the classification of single notch versus multi notch rating changes. The determinants of multi notch versus single notch rating changes for upgrades and downgrades differ. Business cycle influences are evident.
Firms that have multi notch rating upgrades and downgrades have significantly different probit variables vis-à-vis firms that have single notch rating upgrades and downgrades. The important characteristics for determining multiple notch upgrades are a firm’s prior rating change, prior rating, cash flow, total assets and market value. The important characteristics for determining multiple notch downgrades are a firm’s prior rating change, prior rating, current ratio, interest coverage, total debt, operating margin, market to book ratio, capital expenditure, total assets, market value, and market beta. The variables that differ for multi notch upgrades in recessions are cash flow, net income, operating margin, market to book ratio, total assets, and retained earnings. The variables that differ for multi notch downgrades in expansions are a firm’s prior rating change, current ratio, interest coverage ratio, debt ratio, total debt, capital expenditure and market beta.
The power of the explanatory tests improves when the stage of the business cycle is considered. Results are robust to consideration of rating changes across rating categories, changes from probit to logit, alternative specifications of accounting variables, lags and leads of recessions and expansions timing, Fama and French industry adjustments, and winsorization levels of variables.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:unt.edu/info:ark/67531/metadc848118 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Poudel, Rajeeb |
| Contributors | Conover, James Allen, 1961-, Karafiath, Imre, 1955-, Mantecon, Tomas, Jain, Ravi |
| Publisher | University of North Texas |
| Source Sets | University of North Texas |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis or Dissertation |
| Format | viii, 160 pages : illustrations, Text |
| Rights | Public, Poudel, Rajeeb, Copyright, Copyright is held by the author, unless otherwise noted. All rights reserved. |
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