Public traded companies are obliged to account for their operating numbers from time to time. These numbers are usually published in their interim and annual reports. Besides annual accounts and their balance sheet, the income statement provides great value for potential investors and shareholders. This master thesis wants to prove that announcements of operating numbers have verifiable influence on share prices.
Event studies are mainly used to determine abnormalities in return series. An event study focuses on the prediction of normal returns with the help of a certain market model and ascertains abnormal returns in a second step. The selection of a suitable market model is the essence of every event study. On the one hand, there are market models which use certain external factors in their regression equation, having influence on returns. On the other hand, a widely range of autoregressive models computes returns on the basis of their own precursors. Furthermore an extension to that is even able to detect and map volatility clustering in return series. Eventually the variety of different market models exhibits that return prediction can only be an approach to real observations.
Besides the study of abnormalities on a certain event day, it could be worthwhile to examine intervals in return series prior and afterwards an incident. Keynote of this analysis is that investors and shareholders could detect earnings surprises premature and also trade afterwards a publication on an extraordinary basis. The statistical question raised is whether there are coincidences between significantly more distinct trends in return series and the release of business reports. Furthermore, it is arguable whether these coincidences appear only on a random basis or not.
In addition to that, time series of capital market values succumb specific statistical characteristics. Properties like a leptokurtic distribution and weak stationarity constitute prerequisites to subsequent analysis. Additionally autocorrelation of returns is taken into particularly consideration. To sum up, it seems that capital markets provide a diversity of attributes to analyse. Taken all together, these procedures try to disprove capital market efficiency.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa.de:bsz:14-qucosa-185672 |
| Date | 13 November 2015 |
| Creators | Koltermann, Philipp |
| Contributors | Technische Universität Dresden, Fakultät Verkehrswissenschaften "Friedrich List", Dr. rer. nat. Reik Donner, Prof. Dr. rer. pol. Ostap Okhrin, Dr. rer. nat. Reik Donner |
| Publisher | Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden |
| Source Sets | Hochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden |
| Language | deu |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | doc-type:masterThesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
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