Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral infection that affects all
Artiodactyls (cloven-hoofed) species. The United States has been free of FMD since
1929, and the entire population of cloven-hoofed species is therefore susceptible to FMD
virus infection. In the face of an outbreak, it is crucial that appropriate control measures
be applied rapidly to control the disease. However, in most cases decisions on mitigation
strategies must be made with little current or empirical data and in the context of
political, economic and social pressures. Disease spread models can be used to evaluate
the design of optimal control strategies, for policy formulation, for gap analysis and to
develop and refine research agendas when disease is not present. This research project is
designed to investigate the potential role of wildlife (deer) in the transmission and
spread of FMD in an extensive livestock management system in southern Texas. The
spread of FMD was simulated in white tailed deer populations using a Geographic
Automata model. Past research has focused primarily on modeling the spread of FMD in
livestock populations. There has been limited research into the potential role of wildlife
in the spread and maintenance of FMD, specifically in the United States and using a spatial modeling approach. The study area is a nine-county area located in southern
Texas, bordering Mexico. It is a region of concern for the introduction of foreign animal
diseases, particularly through the movement of wild and feral animal species. It is both a
strategic location and is generally representative of the many similar eco-climatic
regions throughout the world. It is an ideal model landscape to simulate FMD incursions.
In this research project, the potential spread of FMD is simulated based on various
spatial estimates of white tailed deer distribution, various estimates of critical model
parameters (such as the latent and infectious periods), seasonal population variability
and in the face of potential pre-emptive mitigation strategies. Significant differences in
the predicted spread were found for each group of simulations. The decision-support
system developed in the studies described in this dissertation provide decision-makers
and those designing and implementing disease response and control policy with
information on the potential spread of a foreign animal disease incursion with a likely
wildlife reservoir. Use of such a decision-support system would enhance the disease
incursion preparedness and response capacity of the United States.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:tamu.edu/oai:repository.tamu.edu:1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2883 |
| Date | 15 May 2009 |
| Creators | Highfield, Linda |
| Contributors | Ward, Michael P. |
| Source Sets | Texas A and M University |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Book, Thesis, Electronic Dissertation, text |
| Format | electronic, application/pdf, born digital |
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