This paper presents an innovat ive cons t ruct ion of a probabilistic model for predicting chance situations. It describes the construction of a four phase model, derived from an intense qualitative analysis of the written responses of 94 mathematically talented middle school students to the probabilistic compound event problem: “How many doubles are expected when rolling two dice fifty times?” We found
that the students’ comprehension process of compound event situations can be broken down into a four phase model: beliefs, subjective estimations, chance estimations and probabilistic calculations. The paper focuses on the development of the model over the course of the experiment, identifying the process the
students underwent as they attempted to answer the question. We explain each phase as it was reflected in the students\' rationalizations. All phases, including their definitions and students’ citations, will be presented in the paper. While not every student necessarily goes through all four phases, an awareness and
understanding of them all allows for efficient, effective intervention during the learning process. We found that guidance and learning intervention helped shorten the preliminary phases, leading to more relative time spent on probabilistic calculations.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa.de:bsz:14-qucosa-80241 |
| Date | 17 April 2012 |
| Creators | Jan, Irma, Amit, Miriam |
| Contributors | HTW Dresden, Informatik, Mathematik |
| Publisher | Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden |
| Source Sets | Hochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | doc-type:conferenceObject |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | Proceedings of the tenth International Conference Models in Developing Mathematics Education. - Dresden : Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft, 2009. - S. 267 - 271 |
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