Under the current regulatory regime for insurance undertakings, Solvency I, the required capital margin does not depend on the allocation of investments, i.e. it is not sensitive to market risk arising from the volatility of market prices for e.g. equity, bond or real estate investments.
To improve the protection of policyholders and create a unified regulatory regime in all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA), a risk-sensitive, forward-looking and principle-based regulatory accord for insurance undertakings called Solvency II will replace the current regime by 01.01.2016. Unlike Solvency I, Solvency II requires the backing up of any investment in risky assets with risk capital rather than imposing investment limits. Own funds eligible to cover the solvency capital requirements under Solvency II shall be based on the difference of market-consistently valuated assets and liabilities in the Solvency II balance sheet.
In this thesis, I first summarize academic contributions as well as opinions from industry representatives on the expected consequences of the current calibration of the Solvency II standard formula. The accuracy of the calibration itself is another focal point of this work.
This work contains four scientific papers. The first paper examines the presence of contagion effects between Eurozone countries in the period 2008-2012. In a market-consistent valuation approach like Solvency II contagion effects intensify the volatility of own funds and therefore of the solvency ratio of insurers. The intensity of contagion peaked in 2010 and first half of 2011 but decreased subsequently which is likely to be a consequence of bailout measures by the EU and the IMF and ECB interventions.
The second and third paper address the zero risk charge for sovereign debt issued by EU member states assumed under the Solvency II standard formula. If one accepts German bond yields to be a risk-free asset, using modern cointegration techniques I showed that bonds of only one third of EU member countries can be perceived as risk-free as well. The fourth paper provides evidence for convergence in the shock-response-behavior of the stock indices of Germany, UK and France during the past decades, which in turn indicates support for the assumption of a perfect tail correlation between listed equity in the Solvency II standard formula.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa:de:qucosa:28782 |
| Date | 18 June 2015 |
| Creators | Ludwig, Alexander |
| Contributors | Karmann, Alexander, Kemnitz, Alexander, Technische Universität Dresden |
| Source Sets | Hochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | doc-type:doctoralThesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis, doc-type:Text |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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