Background: Global climate change severely impacts human life, particularly health, as rising temperatures and extreme weather affect physical and mental well-being. Climate change can also alter the risk factors and epidemiology of infectious diseases, notably vector-borne diseases (VBDs), including those transmitted by mosquitoes. The Aedes mosquito, responsible for dengue, poses a significant threat due to its prevalence vector. Dengue prevention lacks effective methods beyond vector control, and the current vaccine has limitations, emphasizing the need for intensified research and prevention strategies to mitigate the expanding dengue burden worldwide. The goal of these studies was to establish a novel risk index as a baseline for improving prevention efforts for Dengue in the US.
Methods: An initial scoping review was conducted, looking at the state of literature surrounding risk factors associated with dengue transmission in the Americas and globally. Species distribution models (SDMs) were then constructed using Ae. aegypti occurrence data, and both current and projected climate data, to show the predicted current habitat suitability in North America and the potential projected changes in habitat suitability in 2070 and 2100 under differing climate change conditions. The results of the scoping review and SDMs, as well as the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index, were used to develop a novel risk index for identifying areas of potential dengue transmission in the Continental United States. Utilizing the results of the Dengue Enhanced Risk Priority Index (DERPI) and the National Park Service’s Planning for a Changing Climate guidebook, an Impact Scenario Plan (ISP) was developed for a select area of the US with the highest potential risk of dengue transmission.
Results and Implications: The SDMs show large-scale changes in suitable habitat for Ae. aegypti within North America, with the majority of Mexico, Texas, Florida, and Southern California having increased areas of suitable habitat under both climate change models. The DERPI found that large areas of the southern US were suitable for both vector habitat and viral transmission, putting these regions potentially at risk for dengue transmission. The findings of these studies show the need to begin developing dengue prevention and vector control strategies in the southern US.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ETSU/oai:dc.etsu.edu:etd-5988 |
| Date | 01 August 2024 |
| Creators | Beer, Matthew |
| Publisher | Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University |
| Source Sets | East Tennessee State University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | Electronic Theses and Dissertations |
| Rights | Copyright by the authors. |
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