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Estimability of natural mortality within a statistical catch-at-age model: a framework and simulation study based on Gulf of Mexico red snapper

Estimation of natural mortality within statistical catch-at-age models has been relatively unsuccessful and is uncommon within stock assessments. The models I created estimated population-dynamics parameters, including natural mortality, through Metropolis-Hastings algorithms from Gulf of Mexico red-snapper Lutjanus campechanus data. I investigated the influences of assumptions regarding model configuration of natural mortality and selectivity-at-age parameters by comparing multiple models. The results of this study are preliminary due to parameter estimates being bounded by uniform priors and thus a potential lack of convergence to the posterior distribution. Estimation of a natural-mortality parameter at age 0 or a Lorenzen natural-mortality parameter could be confounded with selectivity-at-age-1 parameters for bycatch from the shrimp fisheries. The Lorenzen natural-mortality curve was calculated by dividing the parameter by red snapper length at age. An age-1 natural-mortality parameter might not be estimable with the currently available data. Values of the natural-mortality parameter for ages 2 and older appear to be slightly less influenced by assumptions regarding selectivity-at-age parameters. We conducted a simulation study to determine the accuracy and precision of natural-mortality estimation assuming the selectivity-at-age-1 parameter for bycatch from the shrimp fisheries equaled 1.0 and a Lorenzen natural-mortality curve. The simulation study indicated that initial abundance-at-age parameters may be inestimable within the current model and may influence other parameter estimates. The preliminary simulation results showed that the Lorenzen natural-mortality parameter was consistently slightly underestimated and apical-fishing-mortality parameters were considerably underestimated. The estimation of natural mortality within a statistical catch-at-age model for Gulf of Mexico red snapper has many caveats and requires additional investigation. / Master of Science

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/52244
Date15 November 2013
CreatorsVincent, Matthew Timothy
ContributorsFisheries and Wildlife Sciences, Jiao, Yan, Smith, Eric P., Murphy, Brian R., Walter, John F.
PublisherVirginia Tech
Source SetsVirginia Tech Theses and Dissertation
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeThesis
FormatETD, application/pdf
RightsIn Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

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