This paper explores the fit of a stochastic volatility model, in which the Box-Cox transformation of the squared volatility follows an autoregressive Gaussian distribution, to the continuously compounded daily returns of the Australian stock index. Estimation was difficult, and over-fitting likely, because more variables are present than data. We developed a revised model that held a couple of these variables fixed and then, further, a model which reduced the number of variables significantly by grouping trading days. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the joint density and derive estimated volatilities. Though autocorrelations were higher with a smaller Box-Cox transformation parameter, the fit of the distribution was much better.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:wpi.edu/oai:digitalcommons.wpi.edu:etd-theses-1471 |
| Date | 29 April 2010 |
| Creators | Volfson, Alexander |
| Contributors | Balgobin Nandram, Advisor, , |
| Publisher | Digital WPI |
| Source Sets | Worcester Polytechnic Institute |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | Masters Theses (All Theses, All Years) |
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