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Previous issue date: 2015-02-24 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / Os Eventos de Precipita??o Intensa (EPI) v?m causando grandes preju?zos sociais e econ?micos
?s regi?es atingidas. Na Amaz?nia, esses eventos podem causar importantes impactos
principalmente aos n?cleos de ocupa??o populacional nas margens dos seus in?meros rios, pois
quando h? eleva??o do n?vel dos rios, em geral, t?m-se inunda??es e enchentes. Neste sentido,
o objetivo principal desta pesquisa ? estudar os EPI, com aplica??o da Teoria dos Valores
Extremos (TVE), para estimar o per?odo de retorno desses eventos e identificar as regi?es da
Amaz?nia Brasileira onde os EPI apresentam seus maiores valores. Para tanto, foram utilizados
os dados di?rios de precipita??o da rede hidrometeorol?gica gerenciada pela Ag?ncia Nacional
de ?gua e do Banco de Dados Meteorol?gicos para Ensino e Pesquisa do Instituto Nacional de
Meteorologia, referente ao per?odo de 1983 a 2012. Primeiramente, regi?es homog?neas de
precipita??o foram determinadas, por meio da an?lise de agrupamento, utilizando o m?todo
hier?rquico aglomerativo de Ward. Em seguida, s?ries sint?ticas para representar as regi?es
homog?neas foram criadas e aplicadas na TVE, por interm?dio da Distribui??o Generalizada
de Valores Extremos (Generalized Extreme Value - GEV) e da Distribui??o Generalizada de
Pareto (Generalized Pareto Distribution - GPD). A qualidade do ajuste dessas distribui??es foi
avaliada pela aplica??o do teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov, que compara as distribui??es
emp?ricas acumuladas com as te?ricas. Por ?ltimo, a t?cnica de composi??o foi utilizada para
caracterizar os padr?es atmosf?ricos dominantes na ocorr?ncia dos EPI. Os resultados sugerem
que a Amaz?nia Brasileira possui seis regi?es pluviometricamente homog?neas. Espera-se que
os EPI com maiores valores ocorram nas sub-regi?es do sul e litoral da Amaz?nia. Os eventos
mais intensos s?o esperados durante o per?odo chuvoso ou de transi??o, com total di?rio de
146.1, 143.1 e 109.4 mm (GEV) e 201.6, 209.5 e 152.4 mm (GPD), ao menos uma vez ao ano,
no sul, litoral e noroeste da Amaz?nia Brasileira, respectivamente. No sul da Amaz?nia, as
an?lises de composi??o revelam que os EPI est?o associados com a forma??o da Zona de
Converg?ncia do Atl?ntico Sul. No litoral, os EPI devem estar associados com sistemas de
mesoescala, como as Linhas de Instabilidade. No noroeste, s?o aparentemente associados ?
Zona de Converg?ncia Intertropical e/ou ? convec??o local. / Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the
affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for
populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated,
floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is
to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events
and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was
performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the
National Water Agency (Ag?ncia Nacional de ?gua) and the Meteorological Data Bank for
Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorol?gicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the
National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period
1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using
the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the
homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized
Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of
these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which
compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the
composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the
occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous
regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More
intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region,
with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4
mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian
Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are
associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.
Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall
Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical
Convergence Zone and/or local convection.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/20112 |
| Date | 24 February 2015 |
| Creators | Santos, Eliane Barbosa |
| Contributors | 77231295720, http://lattes.cnpq.br/5291232352923880, Costa, Francisco Alexandre da, 27023320482, http://lattes.cnpq.br/5307397723573993, Lima, Kellen Carla, 67048358220, http://lattes.cnpq.br/4524628383146981, Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos, 16515740816, http://lattes.cnpq.br/4978912302419377, Dias, Maria Assun??o Faus da Silva, 69396361887, http://lattes.cnpq.br/3519989612857544, Silva, Claudio Mois?s Santos e, L?cio, Paulo S?rgio |
| Publisher | Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, PROGRAMA DE P?S-GRADUA??O EM CI?NCIAS CLIM?TICAS, UFRN, Brasil |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRN, instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, instacron:UFRN |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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