蔬菜的供給彈性非常小，收成之後，不僅產量會決定售價的高低，同類蔬
菜之間的替代效果，對於價格變化也有很大的影響力。因此若能事先預測
同類蔬菜未來的價格變化，即可計劃各類蔬菜的生產量。在本篇論文中，
我們試著將時空數列應用在非空間系統的經濟領域上。以臺灣地區三種常
見的蔬菜為例，分別以時空數列的 STARMA 模式與單變量 ARIMA 時間數
列，利用蔬菜批發價格建立模式，並比較其短期預測效果。最後，就價格
變動與產銷策略之關係進行討論。 / The supply elasticity of vegetables is so small. Once the
production has been known, it would reflect on the price as
soon as possible. And at the same time, the substitute effect
between the vegetables has also great influence on the change
of the price. However, if we could forecast the variation of
the vegetables price,then the production-marketing strategy
would be planned in advance. In this paper, we apply the
spatial time series analysis on the field of economic, which is
included in the non-spatial system. An investigate about the
price variation for three kinds of vegetables in Taiwan.And the
comparison of short-term forecasting performance for the STARMA
model and traditional ARIMA model are also made. Finally, we
discuss in detail about the relationship between the change of
vegetable price and production-marketing strategy.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002004191 |
| Creators | 譚光榮, Tan, kuang Jung |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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