本研究主要目的是為了個案公司營運上的實際需求，進而設計出一套衡量客戶信用風險的預警模型-「Credit Score Card」，希望藉由此模型可以預測客戶發生財務危機的機率，以達預警之功能。其研究方向是以財務變數及非財務變數來架構「Credit Score Card」, 並以個案公司之客戶資訊來驗證其有效性。經實證結論如下:
一、 本研究認為「Credit Score Card」是具有預測企業發生財務危機的能力。且各構面對財務危機預警的影響均為負相關，即當各構面的表現越好時，越不會發生財務危機。
二、 風險不可能完全被銷除，但是可以被控管，透過衡量指標的建立去評估風險，可以減低不確定性及未來可能的損失。
三、 當組織權責及區域高度分散時，就必須要有統一的信用風險控管政策及衡量標準,以利各地遵循。
四、 風險衡量指標或權重應依不同的銷售市場、營運模式及產業特性，作最適化的修正。
五、 指標衡量的資料,若取得來源困難,將影響指標的有效性,故在篩選衡量指標時應特別注意。 / The major purpose of this study is based on the operation needs of the case company, to design an early warning model to measure its customers credit risk -「Credit Score Card」, wish to use this model to predict the probability of customers’ financial crises, to achieve the early warning purpose. The direction of the study is the use of financial and non-financial variables to build up the 「Credit Score Card」, and using the customers’ data of case company to test its effectiveness. The empirical results are as follows:
1. This study suggests that 「Credit Score Card」 has the ability to predict the corporate financial crises. Each indicator's impact on the financial crisis early warning are negatively correlated, ie, the better performance of the indicators, the lower the probability of the financial crisis occur.
2. Risk cannot be completely eliminated, but can be controlled, through the establishment of measurable indicators to assess the risk, can help to reduce the uncertainty and possible future loss.
3. When an organization is highly decentralized and regionalized, it must have unified credit risk management policies and measures to facilitate the regions to follow.
4. Risk metrics or weight should depend on the sales market, business model and industry characteristic, for optimal correction.
5. If it is difficult to obtain data for indicator measurement, it will affect the effectiveness of indicator, therefore need to be cautioned when screening indicator measurement.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0095932237 |
| Creators | 李美玉, Lee, Anne |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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