Successful dam design endeavor involves generating technical solutions that can meet intended functional objectives and choosing the best one among the alternative technical solutions. The process of choosing the best among the alternative technical solutions depends on evaluation of design conformance with technical specifications and reliability standards (such as capacity, environmental, safety, social, political etc pecifications). The process also involves evaluation on whether an optimal balance is set between safety and economy. The process of evaluating alternative design solutions requires generating a quantitative expression for lifetime performance and safety. An objective and numerical evaluation of lifetime performance and safety of dams is an essential but complex undertaking. Its domain involves much uncertainty (uncertainty in loads, hazards, strength parameters, boundary conditions, models and dam failure consequences) all of which should be characterized. Arguably uncertainty models and risk analysis provide the most complete characterization of dam performance and safety issues. Risk is a combined measure of the probability and severity of an adverse effect (functional and/or structural failure), and is often estimated by the product of the probability of the adverse event occurring and the expected consequences. Thus, risk analysis requires (1) determination of failure probabilities. (2) probabilistic estimation of consequences. Nonetheless, there is no adequately demonstrated, satisfactorily comprehensive and precise method for explicit treatment and integration of all uncertainties in variables of dam design and risk analysis. Therefore, there is a need for evaluating existing uncertainty models for their applicability, to see knowledge and realization gaps, to drive or adopt new approaches and tools and to adequately demonstrate their practicability by using real life case studies. This is required not only for hopefully improving the performance and safety evaluation process accuracy but also for getting better acceptance of the probabilistic approaches by those who took deterministic design based research and engineering practices as their life time career. These problems have motivated the initiation of this research.
In this research the following have been accomplished:
(1) Identified various ways of analyzing and representing uncertainty in dam design parameters pertinent to three dominant dam failure causes (sliding, overtopping and seepage), and tested a suite of stochastic models capable of capturing design parameters uncertainty to better facilitate evaluation of failure probabilities;
(2) Studied three classical stochastic models: Monte Carlo Simulation Method (MCSM), First Order Second Moment (FOSM) and Second Order Second Moment (SOSM), and applied them for modeling dam performance and for evaluating failure probabilities in line with the above mentioned dominant dam failure causes;
(3) Presented an exact new for the purpose analytical method of transforming design parameters distributions to a distribution representing dam performance (Analytical Solution for finding Derived Distributions (ASDD) method). Laid out proves of its basic principles, prepared a generic implementation architecture and demonstrated its applicability for the three failure modes using a real life case study data;
(4) Presented a multitude of tailor-made reliability equations and solution procedures that will enable the implementations of the above stochastic and analytical methods for failure probability evaluation;
(5) Implemented the stochastic and analytical methods using real life data pertinent to the three failure mechanisms from Tendaho Dam, Ethiopia. Compared the performance of the various stochastic and analytical methods with each other and with the classical deterministic design approach; and
(6) Provided solution procedures, implementation architectures, and Mathematica 5.2, Crystal Ball 7 and spreadsheet based tools for doing the above mentioned analysis.
The results indicate that:
(1) The proposed approaches provide a valid set of procedures, internally consistent logic and produce more realistic solutions. Using the approaches engineers could design dams to meet a quantified level of performance (volume of failure) and could set a balance between safety and economy;
(2) The research is assumed to bridge the gap between the available probability theories in one hand and the suffering distribution problems in dam safety evaluation on the other;
(3) Out of the suite of stochastic approaches studied the ASDD method out perform the classical methods (MCSM, FOSM and SOSM methods) by its theoretical foundation, accuracy and reproducibility. However, when compared with deterministic approach, each of the stochastic approaches provides valid set of procedures, consistent logic and they gave more realistic solution. Nonetheless, it is good practice to compare results from the proposed probabilistic approaches;
(4) The different tailor-made reliability equations and solution approaches followed are proved to work for stochastic safety evaluation of dams; and
(5) The research drawn from some important conclusions and lessons, in relation to stochastic safety analysis of dams against the three dominant failure mechanisms, are. The end result of the study should provide dam engineers and decision makers with perspectives, methodologies, techniques and tools that help them better understand dam safety related issues and enable them to conduct quantitative safety analysis and thus make intelligent dam design, upgrading and rehabilitation decisions.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa.de:bsz:14-qucosa-60843 |
| Date | 04 October 2010 |
| Creators | Kassa, Negede Abate |
| Contributors | Technische Universität Dresden, Fakultät Bauingenieurwesen, Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Hans-B. Horlacher, Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Hans.-B. Horlacher, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Jensen |
| Publisher | Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden |
| Source Sets | Hochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | doc-type:doctoralThesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
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