Within the framework of risk assessment and risk management, determination of the failure probability of dams plays an important role. In this paper, the probabilistic approach to hydraulic failure elaborated by the author in the nineties will be developed further and refined. Furthermore, it is shown how the random event “gate failure” can be taken into account when calculating the overtopping probability of barrages. / Im Rahmen von Risikobetrachtungen spielt die Bestimmung der Überflutungswahrscheinlichkeit eine wichtige Rolle. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird der probabilistische Ansatz, welcher in den neunziger Jahren vom Autor erarbeitet worden ist, weiterentwickelt und modifiziert. Außerdem wird gezeigt, wie das zufällige Ereignis „Versagen von Verschlüssen“ in die Berechnung der Überflutungswahrscheinlichkeit von Stauanlagen einbezogen werden kann.

Dam failures and the following emptying of the reservoir are very seldom. But such catastrophes caused significant damages in the past. The related risk has to consider as high despite the high return period. The paper describes the development of hazard maps showing the dimension of inundation in the downstream region of the dam due to a potential failure. The needed data and possible used software for the dam break flood simulation were discussed. A dam break occurred in the catchment area of the Müglitz river in the Ore mountains during the flood 2002 is described. / Das Versagen einer Talsperre mit einer sich anschließenden Entleerung des Stauraumes ist sehr selten. Jedoch zogen solche Ereignisse in der Vergangenheit immer große Schäden nach sich, so dass trotz der geringen Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit das Risiko als hoch einzuschätzen ist. Der Beitrag behandelt die Erstellung von Gefahrenkarten, die Auskunft darüber geben, wie groß die zu erwartende Überflutung infolge eines Bruches eines Absperrbauwerkes sein könnte. Dabei soll auf die zu ermittelnden Ausgangsdaten ebenso wie auf die zur Verfügung stehende Software zur Simulation der Ausbreitung von Talsperrenbruchwellen eingegangen werden. Als Fallbeispiel wird auf einen Dammbruch während des Hochwassers 2002 im Einzugsgebiet der Müglitz im Erzgebirge eingegangen.

Successful dam design endeavor involves generating technical solutions that can meet intended functional objectives and choosing the best one among the alternative technical solutions. The process of choosing the best among the alternative technical solutions depends on evaluation of design conformance with technical specifications and reliability standards (such as capacity, environmental, safety, social, political etc pecifications). The process also involves evaluation on whether an optimal balance is set between safety and economy. The process of evaluating alternative design solutions requires generating a quantitative expression for lifetime performance and safety. An objective and numerical evaluation of lifetime performance and safety of dams is an essential but complex undertaking. Its domain involves much uncertainty (uncertainty in loads, hazards, strength parameters, boundary conditions, models and dam failure consequences) all of which should be characterized. Arguably uncertainty models and risk analysis provide the most complete characterization of dam performance and safety issues. Risk is a combined measure of the probability and severity of an adverse effect (functional and/or structural failure), and is often estimated by the product of the probability of the adverse event occurring and the expected consequences. Thus, risk analysis requires (1) determination of failure probabilities. (2) probabilistic estimation of consequences. Nonetheless, there is no adequately demonstrated, satisfactorily comprehensive and precise method for explicit treatment and integration of all uncertainties in variables of dam design and risk analysis. Therefore, there is a need for evaluating existing uncertainty models for their applicability, to see knowledge and realization gaps, to drive or adopt new approaches and tools and to adequately demonstrate their practicability by using real life case studies. This is required not only for hopefully improving the performance and safety evaluation process accuracy but also for getting better acceptance of the probabilistic approaches by those who took deterministic design based research and engineering practices as their life time career. These problems have motivated the initiation of this research. In this research the following have been accomplished: (1) Identified various ways of analyzing and representing uncertainty in dam design parameters pertinent to three dominant dam failure causes (sliding, overtopping and seepage), and tested a suite of stochastic models capable of capturing design parameters uncertainty to better facilitate evaluation of failure probabilities; (2) Studied three classical stochastic models: Monte Carlo Simulation Method (MCSM), First Order Second Moment (FOSM) and Second Order Second Moment (SOSM), and applied them for modeling dam performance and for evaluating failure probabilities in line with the above mentioned dominant dam failure causes; (3) Presented an exact new for the purpose analytical method of transforming design parameters distributions to a distribution representing dam performance (Analytical Solution for finding Derived Distributions (ASDD) method). Laid out proves of its basic principles, prepared a generic implementation architecture and demonstrated its applicability for the three failure modes using a real life case study data; (4) Presented a multitude of tailor-made reliability equations and solution procedures that will enable the implementations of the above stochastic and analytical methods for failure probability evaluation; (5) Implemented the stochastic and analytical methods using real life data pertinent to the three failure mechanisms from Tendaho Dam, Ethiopia. Compared the performance of the various stochastic and analytical methods with each other and with the classical deterministic design approach; and (6) Provided solution procedures, implementation architectures, and Mathematica 5.2, Crystal Ball 7 and spreadsheet based tools for doing the above mentioned analysis. The results indicate that: (1) The proposed approaches provide a valid set of procedures, internally consistent logic and produce more realistic solutions. Using the approaches engineers could design dams to meet a quantified level of performance (volume of failure) and could set a balance between safety and economy; (2) The research is assumed to bridge the gap between the available probability theories in one hand and the suffering distribution problems in dam safety evaluation on the other; (3) Out of the suite of stochastic approaches studied the ASDD method out perform the classical methods (MCSM, FOSM and SOSM methods) by its theoretical foundation, accuracy and reproducibility. However, when compared with deterministic approach, each of the stochastic approaches provides valid set of procedures, consistent logic and they gave more realistic solution. Nonetheless, it is good practice to compare results from the proposed probabilistic approaches; (4) The different tailor-made reliability equations and solution approaches followed are proved to work for stochastic safety evaluation of dams; and (5) The research drawn from some important conclusions and lessons, in relation to stochastic safety analysis of dams against the three dominant failure mechanisms, are. The end result of the study should provide dam engineers and decision makers with perspectives, methodologies, techniques and tools that help them better understand dam safety related issues and enable them to conduct quantitative safety analysis and thus make intelligent dam design, upgrading and rehabilitation decisions.

Veränderte Randbedingungen erfordern modifizierte Betriebsregeln. Während die güteorientierte Bewirtschaftung von Stauräumen in der Vergangenheit hauptsächlich bei der langfristigen Bewirtschaftung eine Rolle spielte, gewinnt sie in jüngerer Zeit immer mehr auch bei der kurzfristigen Abflusssteuerung als Vorentlastung und während der Hochwasserereignisse an Bedeutung. Dabei soll vor allem die Entlastung aus Horizonten mit geringerer Wasserqualität ermöglicht werden. Gleichzeitig kann es notwendig werden, im Hochwasserfall insgesamt mehr vorzuentlasten und die Entnahmeeinrichtungen mit einzubeziehen. Der vorliegende Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit den diesbezüglichen Möglichkeiten bei Nutzung vorhandener Entnahmeeinrichtungen und den Anforderungen an bauliche Ergänzungen. Es werden Grundsätze für die Planung, die Berechnung, den Betrieb und die Überwachung sowie Beispiele aus hydraulischer Sicht besprochen.

Während die güteorientierte Bewirtschaftung von Stauräumen in der Vergangenheit hauptsächlich bei der langfristigen Bewirtschaftung eine Rolle spielte, gewinnt sie in jüngerer Zeit immer mehr auch bei der kurzfristigen Abflusssteuerung als Vorentlastung und während der Hochwasserereignisse an Bedeutung. Dabei soll vor allem die Entlastung aus Horizonten mit geringerer Wasserqualität ermöglicht werden. Der vorliegende Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit den diesbezüglichen Möglichkeiten bei Nutzung vorhandener Entnahmeeinrichtungen und den Anforderungen an bauliche Ergänzungen. Es werden Grundsätze für die Planung, die Berechnung, den Betrieb und die Überwachung aus hydraulischer Sicht besprochen.

Eigentümer und Betreiber von Anlgen mit einem großen Gefahrenpotential sind gehalten, den zuständigen Behörden Auskunft über mögliche Folgen eines Störfalles zu erteilen. Für den unwahrscheinlichen Fall des Bruches eines Absperrrbauwerkes können diesbezügliche Informationen erarbeitet werden.

Reservoirs and dams are often situated in the mountains upstream of cities and towns. This implies a theoretical but difficult to evaluate hazard potential for downstream communities. This paper reflects experiences of the related safety analysis practice including the steps from the breach estimation towards the drawing of special hazard maps.

Full protection from forces of nature can not be achieved. A residual risk will always remain. Compromises must be found between the expectations and demands on flood protection on the one hand and the technical, economical and ecological possibilities on the other. The calls for full flood protection by victims of the Weißeritz flood in 2002 and by some politicians can not be satisfied. However, the valid design criterias concerning the upgrading of the Weißeritz regarding flood protection do not meet the requirements. A more sophisticated approach by the Saxonian Dam Authority and the City of Dresden led to much greater design discharge values. Therefore the Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Applied Hydromechanics of TU Dresden developed physical and numerical models which will function as assisting tools during the decision process for the planned flood measures. / Der Schutz vor Naturgewalten ist kein vollständiger Schutz, ein Restrisiko bleibt immer. Hier sind Kompromisse erforderlich, Kompromisse zwischen den Erwartungen und Forderungen an den Hochwasserschutz und den technischen, ökonomischen und ökologischen Möglichkeiten. Die Forderungen vom Hochwasser betroffener Bürger sowie einiger Dresdner Politiker, sich vollständig vor Hochwasser an der Weißeritz zu schützen, sind nicht realisierbar. Andererseits sind Bemessungsgrößen nach derzeit geltenden Regeln für den Ausbau der Weißeritz nicht zeitgemäß. Eine differenziertere Betrachtungsweise für Dresden führte in den Verhandlungen zwischen der sächsischen Landestalsperrenverwaltung und der Stadt zu einem weit höheren Bemessungsabfluss. Die Hochwassermodelle am Institut für Wasserbau und Technische Hydromechanik der TU Dresden haben diesen Prozess unterstützt.

Many multipurpose reservoirs are situated in the low mountain range of Germany. Most of them are necessary for drinking water supply and flood protection as well. Other utilizations are recreation, water power and the downstream low water regulation during dry seasons. The operation rules of the reser-voirs have to be optimized to meet the different requirements of use. One tool within this framework is a management system for river basins including all reservoirs and their specific operation rules affecting the downstream reaches. As an optimization objective for instance the minimization of inundation risks can be defined. In this case the risk can be defined as hydraulic and hydrologic safety of the reservoir itself and the risk due to inundation and damaging in the downstream regions. Considering the European Water Framework Directive the ecological aspect of reservoir management is one more point in the optimization process. To es-tablish a pilot project the software TALSIM will be applied to river catchments in the ore mountains (Saxony).