Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-14T14:26:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
438672.pdf: 3421737 bytes, checksum: 7029092d941a31889249b186ea079f0c (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2012-03-26 / This study examines the relationship between technical change and climate change in the micro level that has global consequences. For this purpose, we use the Bak-Sneppen model of Evolution, a model developed by Bak and Sneppen (1993) and used in biological systems. The model specifies a number N of agents on an ecosystem, each with a variable that determines the fitness adaptability on this environment. Furthermore, there behavioral rules that are repeated t times in time: 1) the agent with the lowest fitness is selected for mutation, and 2) mutations also occur in the neighboring agents with lower fitness. In this investigation has adapted to the Bak-Sneppen model for the economy, assuminga number N of firms that have two fitness variables, one that represents the technical change and another his care for the environment. To support technical change appealed to the Theory of Induced Technical Change, and climate change to the Theory of Sustainable Development in its complex aspect. From computer simulations of the highlights are three scenarios that describe the complex relationships between technical progress and climate change: the scenario has been called the most probable, and to incorporate the debate is one in which firms aim to maximize their technical and some of them can adopt clean technologies and not others, which makes both systems self-organize at a critical level approximately equal to 0.4 fitness. The adverse scenario is one in which the correlation between technical change and the environment is negative, and technical improvements are polluting and every company that wants to decrease their environmental externalities have to reduce technology. In this scenario, both systems and no changes its threshold is close to 0. Finally, the stage was called the ideal one in which the relationship between technical change and climate change is positive, it is assumed only firms adopt clean technologies. In this, both systems are evolving rapidly, reaching steady state at the threshold of 0.6. / O presente estudo analisa a rela??o entre o progresso tecnol?gico e as mudan?as clim?ticas no plano microecon?mico que apresenta consequ?ncias globais. Para tanto, utiliza-se o modelo de Bak-Sneppen, um modelo desenvolvido por Bak e Sneppen (1993) e que trata da evolu??o biol?gica. O modelo especifica um n?mero N de agentes dispostos num ecossistema, cada um com uma vari?vel fitness que determina sua capacidade de adapta??o relativa a esse meio. Ademais, existem regras comportamentais que s?o repetidas t vezes no tempo: 1) o agente com menor fitness ? selecionado para muta??o; e 2) muta??es tamb?m ocorrem nos agentes vizinhos ao de menor fitness. Nessa investiga??o adaptou-se o modelo de Bak-Sneppen para a economia, supondo um n?mero N de firmas que apresentam duas vari?veis fitness, um que representa a mudan?a t?cnica e outro o seu cuidado com o meio ambiente. Para sustentar teoricamente a mudan?a t?cnica recorreu-se a Teoria do Progresso T?cnico Induzido, e no as mudan?as clim?ticas a Teoria do Desenvolvimento Sustent?vel em seu aspecto complexo. A partir das simula??es computacionais destacaram-se tr?s cen?rios que descrevem as rela??es complexas entre progresso t?cnico e mudan?as clim?ticas: o cen?rio que se chamou de mais prov?vel, por incorporar bem o debate ? aquele em que as firmas objetivam maximizar sua t?cnica e algumas delas podem adotar tecnologias limpas e outras n?o, o que faz com que ambos os sistemas se auto-organizem num n?vel cr?tico aproximadamente igual a 0,4 de fitness. O cen?rio desfavor?vel ? aquele em que a correla??o entre a mudan?a t?cnica e o meio ambiente ? negativa, assim melhorias t?cnicas s?o poluidoras e toda firma que deseja diminuir suas externalidades ambientais tem que reduzir tecnologia. Nesse cen?rio, em ambos os sistemas n?o houve evolu??o e seu limiar fica pr?ximo a 0. Por fim, o cen?rio chamado de ideal foi aquele em que a rela??o entre mudan?a t?cnica e mudan?a clim?tica ? positiva, nele sup?e-se as firmas adotam apenas tecnologias limpas. Nesse, ambos os sistemas evoluem rapidamente, atingindo o estado estacion?rio no limiar de 0,6.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:tede2.pucrs.br:tede/3926 |
| Date | 26 March 2012 |
| Creators | Oliveira, Guilherme de |
| Contributors | Bagolin, Izete Pengo |
| Publisher | Pontif?cia Universidade Cat?lica do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Economia do Desenvolvimento, PUCRS, BR, Faculdade de Administra?, Contabilidade e Economia |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_RS, instname:Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul, instacron:PUC_RS |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | -5405171042897922792, 500, 600, 685343171243503703 |
Page generated in 0.0026 seconds