Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH3) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). We construct mean and upper and lower 95% emissions scenarios (available from the authors at 1 degree by 1 degree latitude-longitude grid). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), we find a temperature change range in 2100 of 0.9 to 4.0 degrees C, compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios that result in a range of 1.3 to 3.6 degrees C when simulated through MIT IGSM. / Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/) / Includes bibliographical references (p. 23-25).
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:MIT/oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/3566 |
| Date | 08 1900 |
| Contributors | Webster, Mort David., Babiker, Mustafa H.M., Mayer, Monika., Reilly, John M., Harnisch, Jochen., Hyman, Robert C., Sarofim, Marcus C., Wang, Chien. |
| Publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| Source Sets | M.I.T. Theses and Dissertation |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Format | 25 p., 678825 bytes, application/pdf |
| Rights | http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a79 |
| Relation | Report no. 79 |
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