The seasonal asymmetry in coastal temperatures on Hudson Bay was explored and evaluated as a proxy to hindcast sea ice conditions prior to 1972. Various indices of air temperature difference (∆T) between Churchill, MB and Inukjuak, QC were tested for linear correlations with spatially averaged sea ice concentration (SIC) and ice-free season length (IFS). A multiple regression equation employing a 31-day average of peak ∆T and a 61-day average of temperature during freeze-up reproduced the IFS record with an average error of 8.1 days. This equation was employed to extend the IFS record by 28 years. The resulting 68-year time series revealed a significant increasing trend most pronounced from 1985 to 2011. Hindcast data helped eliminate low-frequency climate oscillations of periodicity <68 years as a source of this trend, lending further evidence to the growing consensus of a declining sea ice being the result of anthropogenic climate forcing.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TORONTO/oai:tspace.library.utoronto.ca:1807/43258 |
| Date | 05 December 2013 |
| Creators | McGovern, Peter |
| Contributors | Gough, William A. |
| Source Sets | University of Toronto |
| Language | en_ca |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
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