This thesis has treated the subject of DCC-GARCH model’s forecasting ability and Value-at- Risk applications on the Scandinavian foreign exchange market. The estimated models were based on daily opening foreign exchange spot rates in the period of 2004-2013, which captured the information in the financial crisis of 2008 and Eurozone crisis in the early 2010s. The forecasts were performed on a one-day rolling window in 2014. The results show that the DCC-GARCH model accurately predicted the fluctuation in the conditional correlation, although not with the correct magnitude. Furthermore, the DCC-GARCH model shows good Value-at-Risk forecasting performance for different portfolios containing the Scandinavian currencies.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:uu-375201 |
| Date | January 2019 |
| Creators | Andersson-Säll, Tim, Lindskog, Johan |
| Publisher | Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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