system model and computational methodology have been developed which
evaluate the worth of flood forecast - response systems in reducing the
economic damage caused by floods. The efficiencies of the forecast system,
the response system, and the overall system may be individually obtained
and compared.
In this report the case study of Milton, Pennsylvania, was extended and
further case studies were performed including a large residential section of
Victoria, Texas, and all the residences in Columbus, Mississippi. These locations
show better forecast and response efficiencies than obtained for Milton,
Pennsylvania. The difference is attributed to longer forecast lead times
at Columbus and Victoria. Sensitivity analyses were run at all three
locations. These show the effects of many system factors, such as the time
required to produce, disseminate and respond to a forecast, on the
efficiency of the system. The forecast efficiency improves significantly
as these times are reduced. Further analysis of the response system based
on human factors involved has led to the development of a simulation model
of the process by which the floodplain dweller determines the appropriate
response to a flood warning. Investigation of ways to extend the methodology
to evaluate regions lacking the detailed data used for the case studies has
indicated more problems than answers. Extrapolation based on overall
system efficiency related to published regional and national flood damage
estimates was used to provide an approximate value of the flood forecast -
response system for two regions and for the nation.A listing of simplicities and approximations which make computations
tractable but which may affect accuracy is given. Finally, an evaluation
of the work accomplished for this project and suggestions for the constructive
use of the flood forecast -response system model and computational
procedures is given.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/620154 |
| Date | 01 1900 |
| Creators | Krzysztofowicz, Roman, Davis, Donald Ross, Ferrell, William R., Hosne-Sanaye, Simin, Perry, Scott E., Rototham, Hugh B. |
| Contributors | Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona, Department of Systems and Industrial Engineering, The University of Arizona |
| Publisher | Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ) |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text, Technical Report |
| Source | Provided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources. |
| Rights | Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents |
| Relation | Technical Reports on Natural Resource Systems, No. 33 |
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