Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The subject of prediction of business failure from an academic point of view dates back
to the turn of the century with the development of a single ratio, the current ratio, as an
evaluation of credit-worthiness. Subsequently studies conducted have become complex
using different statistical techniques and more than one variable to predict failure. The
challenge in these studies has been to establish a reliable model to predict failure.
The aim of this report was to find out which financial factors best predicted failure in the
South African environment using a matched study by refining some elements of the
study conducted by Court (1993). The data used was similar to that of Court (1993),
which was independently obtained from the Bureau of Financial Analysis of the
University of Pretoria. The variables used in the study were then computed from this
raw data. The variables were then imputed into the stataΤΜ statical software package to
run a conditional logistic regression model.
As a result of a small sample size and a substantial number of missing variables in the
sample size, the study did not reveal an accurate indication of the important variable. It
was also found that with the instability and general complexity of conditional logistic
regression the study need not have been a matched study.
The recommendation is that future research be done with a larger sample size using the
same methodology. It is also recommended that the data include non-financial
variables. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die voorspelling van besigheidsmislukkings as 'n akademiese onderwerp, dateer vanaf
die begin van die vorige eeu met die ontwikkeling van 'n enkele verhouding, die
bedryfsverhouding, as maatstaf van kredietwaardigheid. Die toepassing van statistiese
tegnieke en inkorporasie van meerdere veranderlikes het aan verdere studies 'n hoë
mate van kompleksiteit verleen. Die gevolglike uitdaging was om 'n betroubare model te
ontwikkel om besighiedsmislukkings akkuraat te kan voorspel.
Die doel van hierdie verslag is om aan te dui welke finansiele faktore mees gepas sal
wees om besigheidsmislukkings in die Suid Afrikaanse omgewing te voorspel. Die
verslag gee weer die bevindinge van 'n gepaarde studie wat gegrond is op 'n verfyning
van sekere elemente soos geneem uit die Court studie van 1993. Die data gebruik, is
baie soos die wat die Court studie onderlê en is onafhanklik verkry vanaf die Bureau vir
Finansiele Analise (Universiteit van Pretoria). Die veranderlikes wat in die studie
gebruik is gebaseer op hierdie rou data en is ingesleutel en verwerk deur die stataΤΜ
statistiese sagteware program na 'n kondisionele, logiese regressie model.
As gevolg van 'n klein steekproef en 'n beduidenswaardige aantal ontbrekende
veranderlikes in hierdie steekproef, kon die studie nie 'n belangrike veranderlike met
akkuraatheid aandui nie. Dit is ook bevind dat die onstabiliteit en algemene
kompleksiteit van die kondisionele, logiese regressie model die gebruik van 'n gepaarde
studie onnodig gelaat het.
Die aanbeveling is dat verdere navorsing dieselfde metodologie sal toepas op 'n groter steekproef. Dit word ook
aanbeveel dat nie-finansiele veranderlikes by die data ingesluit word.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/52084 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Mota, Stephen Kopano |
| Contributors | Biekpe, N., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic & Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 52 p. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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