Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research involves the study of the relationship between share prices,
earnings per share, dividends per share and cash flow per share. The aim is to
estimate the extent of the effect of earnings per share, dividends per share and
cash flow per share on share prices.
A sample of industrial companies, all listed on the Johannesburg Stock
Exchange is used. The sample includes 17 sectors, containing a total of 326
companies.
The data relating to these companies is sourced from the database of the
University of Stellenbosch Business School.
Twenty consecutive years of reported financial results are used. This includes (i)
share prices as at the company's year-end, (ii) earnings per share, (iii) dividends
per share and (iv) cash flow per share for the financial year.
The data for each individual company is arranged in three separate structures.
One structure, known as levels, is created using the data in their original form. A
second structure, first differences, is constructed using the annual changes in the
original data. The third structure, first difference percentages, is created using the
annual changes in the original data calculated as a percentage of the previous
year's figure. Several methods are used to analyse data, by way of statistical models known as
linear regression, multiple regression and stepwise regression, which is a
variation of multiple regression. Regression analysis is used in deterministic
models because the value of one variable is predicted on the basis of other
variables. Such models are called deterministic because they allow users of data
to determine the value of the dependent variable from the value of the
independent variable(s).
Linear regression is capable of calculating the relationship between variables,
which are dependent on each other and represents the dependency as a
percentage.
Multiple regression is a statistical model, which calculates and represents the
relationship between three or more variables as an equation. Multiple regression
is capable of calculating the relationship between the three or more variables
which are dependent on each other and represents the dependency as a
percentage.
The statistical models are applied to each company individually, based on the
three structures of the data. The conclusions of this research are based upon the
results of the dependency of the variables, calculated by the various statistical
models. The conclusions arrived at were that (1) the first differences structure is best
suited to this model, (2) by placing the data of individual companies together in
one pool, the problem of weighing each company was overcome, and (3) using
linear regression results together with the multiple and stepwise regression
results added value in terms of comparison of the accuracy of results.
A comparison was drawn between the findings of this study and those of
previous writers and is referred to in the text. Four researchers namely Strong,
Board and Day, Brown and Mara-Tjingaete, regressed the results of earnings
versus share price and produced R2 values of 12,8 percent, 13 percent, 7
percent and 7,8 percent respectively. Brown and Mara-Tjingaete found R2 results
of 14 percent and 0,6 percent respectively for dividends versus share price and
this study also produced an R2 result of 0,4 percent for cash flow versus share
price. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsing behels die studie van die verwantskap tussen aandeelpryse,
verdienste per aandeel, dividende per aandeel en kontantvloei per aandeel. Die
doel daarvan is om die uitwerking van verdienste per aandeel, dividend per
aandeel en kontantvloei per aandeel op aandeelpryse te bereken.
'n Steekproef van industriële maatskappye genoteer op die Johannesburgse
Effektebeurs is gebruik. Die steekproef strek oor 17 sektore en sluit 326
maatskappye in.
Die data van hierdie maatskappye is verkry van die databank van die Universiteit
van Stellenbosch Bestuurskool.
Twintig opeenvolgende jare se gepubliseerde finansiële state word in die
steekproef gebruik. Dit sluit in (i) aandeelpryse soos op die maatskappye se
finansiële jaareinde, (ii) verdienste per aandeel, (iii) dividende per aandeel en (iv)
kontantvloei per aandeel vir die finansiële jaar.
Die data vir elke maatskappy is in drie verskillende strukture gerangskik. Een
struktuur, bekend as vlakke, is geskep deur die data in hulle oorspronklike vorm
te gebruik. 'n Tweede struktuur, eerste verskille, is saamgestel deur die jaarlikse
verandering in die oorspronklike data te gebruik. Die derde struktuur, eerste verskille-persentasies, is geskep deur die jaarlikse veranderinge in die
oorspronklike data, bereken as 'n persentasie van die vorige jaar se syfer, te
gebruik.
Verskeie metodes word gebruik om data te ontleed, deur middel van statistiese
modelle bekend as lineêre regressie, meervoudige regressie en stapsgewyse
regressie, 'n variasie van meervoudige regressie. Regressie ontledings word
gebruik in bepalende modelle omdat die waarde van een veranderlike gebruik
word as basis om die waarde van die ander veranderlike te probeer voorspel.
Sulke modelle word bepalend genoem vanweë die feit dat dit gebruikers van
data in staat stel om die waarde van die afhanklike veranderlike te bepaal deur
middel van die waarde van die onafhanklike veranderlike(s).
Lineêre regressie kan die verwantskap tussen interafhanklike veranderlikes
bereken en die afhanklikheid as 'n persentasie uitdruk.
Meervoudige regressie is 'n statistiese model wat die verwantskap tussen drie of
meer veranderlikes as 'n vergelyking bereken en voorstel. Meervoudige
regressie kan die verwantskap tussen drie of meer interafhanklike veranderlikes
bereken en die afhanklikheid as 'n persentasie uitdruk.
Die statistiese modelle word toegepas op elke individuele maatskappy, gebaseer
op die bogenoemde drie strukture. Die bevindinge van die navorsing is gebaseer op die resultate van die afhanklikheid van die veranderlikes soos deur die
verskillende statistiese modelle bereken.
Die uiteindelike gevolgtrekking was dat (1) die eerste verskille-struktuur die mees
gepaste vir hierdie model is, (2) deur die data van die afsonderlike maatskappye
in een poel te plaas, is die probleem van die gewig per maatskappy oorkom, (3)
die gebruik van lineêre, meervoudige en stapsgewyse regressie het baie waarde
ten opsigte van die vergelyking van akkuraatheid van die resultate toegevoeg.
Vergelykings is getref tussen bevindinge in hierdie werkstuk en die van ander
navorsers. Vier navorsers, naamlik Strong, Board en Day, Brown en Mara-
Tjingaete het R2 resultate vir verdienste per aandeel teenoor aandeelpryse van
onderskeidelik 12,8 persent, 13 persent, 7 persent en 7,8 persent gekry. Brown
en Mara-Tjingaete het R2 resultate van onderskeidelik 14 persent en 0,6 persent
bevind vir dividende per aandeel teenoor aandeelpryse en hierdie studie het ook
R2 resultate van 0,4 persent vir kontantvloei per aandeel teenoor aandeelpryse
gelewer.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/52114 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Mara-Tjingaete, Cashandra Candice |
| Contributors | Hamman, W. D., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic & Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business . |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 267 p. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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