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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

[en] COMMODITY PRICES AND EXCHANGES RATES IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC / [pt] PREÇOS DE COMMODITY E TAXA DE CÂMBIO NA PANDEMIA DE COVID-19

MATEUS DELLA GIUSTINA DE AGUIAR 06 October 2023 (has links)
[pt] É consenso na teoria econômica que o aumento dos termos de troca leva a uma apreciação da taxa de câmbio real. No entanto, durante o período recente da pandemia do COVID-19, essa relação parece ter sido interrompida, pois houve um aumento significativo nos preços das commodities, mas as taxas de câmbio reais de vários países não se valorizaram correspondentemente. O objetivo deste trabalho de pesquisa é examinar as razões para esse desvio da correlação estabelecida. Eu estimo vários SVARs para países exportadores de commodities com um esquema recursivo de identificação em blocos e concluo que outros choques estruturais além do de commodities explicaram a depreciação da taxa de câmbio real no período da pandemia. Em 2020, o risco global foi o principal fator responsável pela depreciação da taxa de câmbio, enquanto em 2021 o alto risco-país, especialmente para os países emergentes, e o baixo nível da taxa de juros doméstica aparecem como os principais responsáveis por essa quebra. / [en] It is a consensus in economic theory that the increase in the terms of trade leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. However, during the recent period of the COVID-19 pandemic, this relationship appears to have been disrupted, as there has been a significant rise in commodity prices but the real exchange rates of many countries have not appreciated correspondingly. The aim of this M.Sc. Thesis is to examine the reasons for this deviation from the established correlation. I estimate several SVARs for commodity exporting countries with a recursive block identification scheme and conclude that structural shocks other than the commodity one explained the real exchange rate depreciation in the pandemic period. In 2020, the global risk was the main factor responsible for depreciating the exchange rate, while in 2021 the high country risk, specially for emerging countries, and the low level of the domestic interest rate appear as the main factors responsible for this break.

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