This report mentions some of the difficulties faced by labor estimators when predicting the labor necessary to produce complex weapon systems. Specific attention is focused on estimating the durations and frequencies of testing, troubleshooting, and retesting activities. Emphasis is placed on estimating in a logical manner while using factors based on subjective judgment.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(医学) / 甲第23758号 / 医博第4804号 / 新制||医||1056(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院医学研究科医学専攻 / (主査)教授 今中 雄一, 教授 川上 浩司, 教授 小濱 和貴 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Medical Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

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no / While the general argument that it is easier and more cost-effective to prevent conflicts before the outbreak of violence has considerable attraction, a rigorous approach to estimating the cost and benefits of this policy is still lacking. The objective of this study is to contribute to the development of such an approach. The project involves six case studies, three retrospective (the Western Balkans, Afghanistan, and Rwanda) and three prospective (Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and southern Sudan). Its main conclusion is that targeted programmes of conflict prevention are (or would have been) significantly cheaper than cure.

Recent emphasis on producing energy from woody biomass has raised questions about the impact of a vibrant wood-to-energy market on the southern wood supply chain, which consists of forest landowners, forest industry mills, and harvesting contractors. This study utilized two surveys of southern wood supply chain participants and a designed operational study of an energywood harvest to investigate the impact of an expanded wood-to-energy market on each member of the southern wood supply chain. First, a survey of consulting foresters was conducted to examine how harvest tract size, forest ownership, and forest industry structure have changed within the U.S. South and how foresters expect the wood-to-energy market to impact the wood supply chain in the future. Second, this study employed a mail survey of forest landowners, forest industry mills, and wood-to-energy facilities from the thirteen southern states in order to investigate expected competition for resources, wood supply chain profitability, and landowner willingness to sell timber to energy facilities. Third, this study conducted a designed operational study on a southern pine clearcut in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, with three replications of three harvest prescriptions to measure harvesting productivity and costs when harvesting woody biomass for energy. The three treatments were: a Conventional roundwood only harvest (control), an Integrated harvest in which roundwood was delivered to traditional mills and residuals were chipped for energy, and a Chip harvest in which all stems were chipped for energy use. Results from the two surveys suggest that timber markets are inadequate in many areas of the South as a result of expanded timber supply and reduced forest products industry capacity. Only 12% of responding landowners and foresters had sold wood to an energy facility, indicating that wood-to-energy markets are non-existent in many areas of the South. Nonetheless, 98% of consulting foresters and 90% of landowners reported a willingness to sell timber to an energy facility if the right price were offered. Consulting foresters expected wood-to-energy facilities to provide an additional market for wood, and not displace forest products industry capacity. However, two-thirds of consulting foresters, wood-to-energy facilities, and private landowners expected competition between mills and energy facilities while 95% of fibermills (pulp/paper and composite mills) expected competition. Fibermills were much more concerned about competition for resources and increases in wood costs than any other member of the southern wood supply chain. The operational study documented the challenges facing some harvesting contractors in economically producing energywood. Onboard truck roundwood costs increased from $9.35 green t-1 in the Conventional treatment to $10.98 green t-1 in the Integrated treatment as a result of reduced felling and skidding productivity. Energy chips were produced for $19.19 green t-1 onboard truck in the Integrated treatment and $17.93 green t-1 in the Chip treatment. Energywood harvesting costs were higher in this study than in previous research that employed loggers with less expensive, more fuel efficient equipment. This suggests that high capacity, wet-site capable loggers may not be able to economically harvest and transport energywood without a substantial increase in energywood prices. This study suggests that the southern wood supply chain is in position to benefit from a vibrant wood-to-energy market. Landowners should benefit from an additional market for small-diameter stems. This study shows that high production, wet-site capable loggers should not harvest energywood until prices for this material appreciate considerably. Wet-site loggers have very expensive equipment with high hourly fuel consumption rates and this study documented that energywood production was not sufficiently high to offset the high hourly cost of owning and operating this equipment. Nevertheless, a wood-to-energy market should benefit harvesting contractors in general because unless the forest products industry contracts further, loggers can continue to harvest and deliver roundwood to mills as they do at present and those properly equipped for energywood harvesting at low cost may be able to profit from a new market. The forest products industry has the largest potential downside of any member of the southern wood supply chain. This study documents widespread anticipation of competition between the forest products and wood-to-energy industries. However, to date there has been minimal wide-scale competition between the forest products and wood-to-energy industries. It is possible that the wood-to-energy industry will complement, rather than compete with the forest products industry, and thereby benefit each member of the southern wood supply chain. / Ph. D.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the amount of information that potential adult male students had on financial aid and other aspects of college programs and to develop insights concerning the effects of an information gap (if any) on enrollment decisions and the degree to which colleges in a selected area are marketing information. To obtain the data necessary to answer the research questions posed in this study, a sample of 143 respondents between the ages of 25 and 60 was selected from the city of Richmond, Virginia. The basic process utilized was area sampling techniques. In addition, stratified random sampling techniques were used to select the specific locations where the sample was to be drawn and the Hill Directory was used to gain access to that population. The results of discriminant analysis and stepwise regression revealed the following nine variables were significant predictors of whether or not adult males would want to go to college. 1. Age--More younger males (25 to 35) expressed an interest in attending college than older males (ages 40 to 60). 2. Level of Education--More males with previous college experience wanted to go to college than males with no college experience. 3. Marital Status--More single males wanted to go to college than married males. 4. Cost--Males interested in attending college viewed cost of education as the major obstacle more often than males not interested in attending college. 5. Time--More males not interested in attending college mentioned time as a problem than males interested in attending college. 6. Annual Income--More males with incomes above $25,000 expressed no interest in attending college than males with incomes in the $6,000-12,000 range. 7. Home Responsibility--More males not interested in attending college viewed home responsibility as an obstacle than males interested in attending college. 8. Job Responsibility--More males not interested in attending college mentioned job responsibility as a deterrent to enrollment than males interested in attending college. 9. Knowledge of Academic Requirements--Males not interested in attending college had more information on academic requirements than males interested in attending college. It was concluded that the lack of information was a problem related to the adult males' participation in higher education. Even many of those who wanted to go to college had not been motivated to the point where they had (1) enrolled or (2) even acquired information. This study did not attempt to determine the effect of promotion (better information) on enrollment behavior. It would be useful to conduct such a study. It is recommended that further research be conducted to test the effects of various marketing and promotional techniques. Practice in the marketing of higher education would also profit from studies on "what were the factors that cause adults to make enrollment decisions" and "appropriate strategies for preparing an institution to pursue a new market." / Ed. D.

In this research, an effort is made to analyze the costs of fare collection on heavy rail and motorbus systems in the U.S. Since existing ticketing and fare collection (TFC) systems are major elements of transit infrastructure and there are several new alternative TFC technologies available on the market, the need to evaluate the performance of existing TFC systems arises. However, very little research has been done, so far, to assess impacts of TFC technologies on capital and operating expenses in public transit. The two objectives of this research are: (1) to formulate a conceptual evaluation framework and a plan to assess the operating costs of existing TFC systems in transit and (2) to analyze the operating expenses associated with existing TFC systems on heavy rail and motorbus transit in the U.S. with the aid of the evaluation framework and plan. This research begins with a review of the current state of knowledge in the areas of transit TFC evaluation, the economics of public transit operations, and fare collection practices and technologies. It helps to determine the scope of work related to assessment of TFC operating costs on public transit and provides the basis for the development of a conceptual evaluation framework and an evaluation plan. Next, this research presents a systematic approach to define and describe alternative TFC systems and suggests that the major TFC system determinants are payment media, fare media, TFC equipment, and transit technology (mode). Following this is the development of measures of effectiveness to evaluate alternative TFC systems. These measures assess cost-effectiveness and labor-intensiveness of TFC operations. The development of TFC System Technology Index follows. This Index recognizes the fact that TFC systems may consist of different sets of TFC technologies both traditional and innovative. Finally, this research presents statistical results that support the hypothesis that TFC operating costs are related to transit demand, transit technology (mode) and TFC technologies. These results further suggest that: (1) TFC operating costs per unlinked passenger trip on heavy rail systems are higher than on motorbus systems and (2) TFC operating costs per unlinked passenger trip tend to increase as the use of non-electronic fare media increases. Actions for further research are also recommended. / Ph. D.

Current marketing channel literature overwhelmingly suggests that entering exchange relationships leads to positive outcomes for the exchange parties. Yet, not all exchanges employ relational exchange. Thus, research appears to lack an understanding of the boundary conditions of successful relational exchange. This dissertation contributes to filling this gap by clarifying what is understood as relational exchange and differentiating it from vertical integration. Here, a two-dimensional perspective on exchange structure is offered that integrates our view of relational exchange and extends the conceptualization of vertical integration beyond sole ownership. To derive boundary conditions of relational exchange the literature on interorganizational relationships is integrated into six determinants and two key outcomes of relational exchange. These boundary conditions thus represent the facilitating circumstances that make relational exchange viable and the outcomes of relational exchange that exchange partners seek to achieve. / Ph. D.

A financial analysis was developed and adapted to a forest products firm’s timber harvest scheduling model in an attempt to increase its net present value of harvest returns, using alternative harvest criteria. The firm’s original harvest scheduling model was used as a control model for the study. A net present value financial analysis was developed for this model that represented the firm’s current financial management and taxation policies. A second model was developed that utilized the same model structure and solution technique, but a different harvest criterion consistent wit the simple financial maturity concept. A third model was also developed that utilized the same financial maturity harvest criterion, while simultaneously considering intermediate harvests in the form of one commercial thinning over the life of a stand. A series of eight management alternatives representing different combinations of allowable cut levels and harvest flow constraints was developed and tested using each of the scheduling models. The use of the second and third scheduling models resulted in an increase in net present value of harvest returns over a fixed planning horizon for each management alternative considered. In addition, the use of these two models eliminated any severe depletion of economically mature timer inventories, while maintaining a sustained flow of harvests. Thus, by using a marginal value approach to the scheduling of timber harvests, the firm’s timber capital was used more efficiently in comparison to its original harvest criterion. / M. S.

Economic theory and empirical research suggests product market competition can result in both positive and negative capital market effects. Specifically, research suggests competition reduces agency costs, but also reduces profitability. I examine the relation between product market competition and firm value in an international setting, focusing on how the relation varies with firm- and country-specific characteristics. I document lower values for firms in more competitive industries. However, the negative relation between competition and firm value is less pronounced for firms with higher firm-level liquidation risk, stronger country-level investor protection mechanisms, and higher firm-level transparency. These findings are consistent with an agency cost benefit resulting from product market competition. / Ph. D.