本篇論文將Kariya, Ushiyama, and Pliska三位學者在2003所發表之三因子不動產證券化評價模型加入信用風險(credit risk)的考量. / In this paper, we extend Kariya, Ushiyama, and Pliska’s three factor mortgage-backed securities pricing model with credit risk. In our model, two reasons that cause prepayment behaviors are the refinancing factor and the equity factor. Our pricing model is a discrete-time model, and the credit risk is priced due to the concept of reduced form model. We also use Monte Carlo simulation to test our theoretical value and make some comparisons between changing parameters.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Melbourne, Dept. of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Commerce, 2002. / Typescript (photocopy). Includes bibliographical references.

La dette souveraine est un instrument puissant de la politique publique. Avec sa croissance rapide dans les pays développés, d'une part, et le changement fondamental de sa structure dans les pays en développement d'autre part, comprendre les déterminants du risque souverain est devenu un sujet de préoccupation majeur pour les chercheurs et les investisseurs. Cette thèse étudie les aspects du risque de défaut dans les économies avancées et émergentes. La partie théorique présente le risque de défaut souverain. Les principaux résultats montrent que le choix de la devise d'émission représente un aspect important du profil de risque de défaut d'un Etat.Dans la première, une analyse détaillée des défauts souverains en utilisant une nouvelle base de données qui inclut 100 pays observés sur la période 1996-2012 a été conduite. Les résultats montrent que la décision d'un gouvernement de faire défait diffère sensiblement selon la dénomination de la monnaie et du type des détenteurs de la dette publique. La seconde étude a permis d'apporter un nouvel éclairage sur le rating souverain. Elle démontre que les pays dont la dette est en grande partie - ou entièrement - libellée dans leur propre monnaie bénéficient d'un avantage considérable sur les pays qui émettent en devise étrangère. Dans la dernière section empirique, le prix de marché du risque souverain a été exploré. L'étude montre que les facteurs globaux influent sur la rémunération des investisseurs pour la tenue du risque souverain, mais pas le risque lui-même.Les principaux résultats impliquent que toute modélisation du risque de défaut souverain appelle à une distinction entre devise locale et devise étrangère. / Sovereign debt is a powerful instrument of the public policy. With its dramatic increase in the western economies, on the one hand, and the fundamental change of its structure in the emerging markets, on the other, understanding the determinants of the sovereign default risk has became a subject of major concern for both researchers and investors. This dissertation investigates aspects of sovereign default risk in advanced and emerging economies.The theoretical section explores the sovereign default risk. The main results show that the choice of the currency of issue represents an important aspect of the sovereign's risk profile.Three empirical studies have been conducted. In the first, a detailed analysis of the sovereign defaults using a new database which includes 100 countries observed over the period 1966-2012 has been conducted. The results show that sovereigns typically default under different economic and financial conditions depending on the bond's currency denomination and the investor's base.The key contribution of the second research is to assess the importance of the currency of issuance in the rating of sovereign debt. The study demonstrates that countries whose debt is largely - or entirely - denominated in their own currency enjoy a substantial advantage over government issuing debt in foreign currency.The last empirical section explores the market price ofs overeign risk. It arugues that the default probability on sovereign bonds is unrelated to global factors.The main results imply that any sovereign default risk modeling requires a distinction between local currency and foreign currency.

The Saudi Government’s 2030 Vision directs local banks to increase and improve credit for the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) of the economy (Jadwa, 2017). Banks are, however, still finding it difficult to provide credit for small businesses that meet Basel’s capital requirements. Most of the current credit-risk models only apply to large corporations with little constructed for SMEs applications (Altman and Sabato, 2007). This study fills this gap by focusing on the Saudi SMEs perspective. My empirical work constructs a bankruptcy prediction model based on logistic regressions that cover 14,727 firm-year observations for an 11-year period between 2001 and 2011. I use the first eight years data (2001-2008) to build the model and use it to predict the last three years (2009-2011) of the sample, i.e. conducting an out-of-sample test. This approach yields a highly accurate model with great prediction power, though the results are partially influenced by the external economic and geopolitical volatilities that took place during the period of 2009-2010 (the world financial crisis). To avoid making predictions in such a volatile period, I rebuild the model based on 2003-2010 data, and use it to predict the default events for 2011. The new model is highly consistent and accurate. My model suggests that, from an academic perspective, some key quantitative variables, such as gross profit margin, days inventory, revenues, days payable and age of the entity, have a significant power in predicting the default probability of an entity. I further price the risks of the SMEs by using a credit-risk pricing model similar to Bauer and Agarwal (2014), which enables us to determine the risk-return tradeoffs on Saudi’s SMEs.

Concerns about the state of public finances in the main advanced economies have increased as a result of the global financial and economic crisis that started in late 2007 - 2008. The fiscal solvency of several euro area peripheral countries has been put under the spotlight of the market participants who started to believe that a sovereign default was likely to happen in an advanced economy member of the euro area. This thesis seeks to investigate the sovereign risk in the euro area countries during the period before, during and after the crisis by focusing on the sovereign bond and credit default swaps spreads and the factors that drive them. In Chapters 2, we investigate the determinants of the government bond yields and sovereign credit default swaps. In our analysis for the government bond yields we find that the macroeconomic fundamentals used in our analysis are highly significant for the periphery countries, while they are less or not significant at all for the core euro area countries. We also find evidence that during the crisis the fluctuations of the government bond yields are not only explained by the macroeconomic fundamentals but also explained by factors related to the uncertainty in the euro area. In Chapter 3, we employ the panel cointegration approach in order to investigate the macroeconomic and financial indicators that impacted the sovereign credit default swaps in the crisis period using data from October 2008 until December 2014. We provide fresh evidence that the financial indicators, proxied by the iTraxx index as well as liquidity indicators, proxied by the bid-ask had a dominant role in explaining the CDS in almost all countries. In Chapter 4, in regard to the study of the price discovery relationship between the government bond yields and sovereign CDS, we suggest the use of cointegration methodology and also test for a structural break using the Gregory and Hanson approach to investigate the linkages between the two instruments. The structural break test suggests that the relation changed during the crisis and that the price discovery took place in the CDS market. Finally, in Chapter 5, we investigate the main factors causing the sovereign defaults. We use a panel of 99 countries to assess the impact that various macroeconomic and political risk indicators have on sovereign defaults on foreign currency bank loans, foreign currency bonds and local currency debt, utilizing an extended database constructed by the Bank of Canada. Our results suggest that the favorable economic indicators, lower debt levels, and higher political stability all reduce the likelihood of default. We also find that the capital outflows restrictions are positively associated with higher probability of default.

We analyze the nature of sovereign credit risk for selected Asian and European countries through a set of sovereign CDS data for an eighty-year period that includes the episode of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Our principal component analysis results suggest that there is strong commonality in sovereign credit risk across countries after the crisis. The regression tests show that the commonality is linked to both local and global financial and economic variables. Besides, we also notice intriguing differences in the sovereign credit risk behavior of Asian and European countries. Specifically, we find that some variables, including foreign reserve, global stock market, and volatility risk premium, affect the of Asian and European sovereign credit risks in the opposite direction. Further, we assume that the arrival rates of credit events follow a square-root diffusion from which we build our pricing model. The resulting model is used to decompose credit spreads into risk premium and credit-event components.

The wellness of credit risk has great influence on the Value of Mortage-Backed Securities (MBS), but there isn¡¦t any valuator to supervise and to estimate these securities-issued institutions in Taiwan. For earning the trust of the masses, these institutions must have great abilities to control credit risk in an acceptable degree, and then the people will be willing to invest in these MBS. This research makes use of data totaling 20,576 cases (17,425 normal cases and 3,151 default cases) from a certain domestic bank, Bank P, and constructs the Logistic Regression Model to steer the substantial evidence research. With the right prediction of 96.7% in normal, 85.4% in default, and 95% in whole, we find that we can use the borrower¡¦s age, occupation, the object of collateral, the use of collateral, the loan purpose, the year of loan, the line of credit, the category of interest, the interest rate, the source of case and the branch office as key factors for credit risk appraisal of reference provided to banks. In this study, we will determine whether interest rate is the key factor for default, followed by occupation. The other two factors, the category of interest and the source of case, which are not popularly talked about in related studies, are confirmed as the remarkable influence factors for credit risk. The other important discovery is that the influence of the loan condition and the specialities of the collateral have greater impact on credit risk than the personality of the borrower. This research provides some reference for financial institutions on credit evaluation, and makes up a good model for credit control. For previously issued MBS, this research also provides some academic basis for future adaptation.

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