Opbrengskoerse van vasterentedraende effekte verander as gevolg van veranderings in vraag en aanbod op die kapitaalmark. Die veranderinge in opbrengskoerse bei'nvloed die pryse van vasterentedraende effekte, asook van die opsies op hierdie effekte en stel beleggers in hierdie instrumente bloot aan beleggingsrisiko. Hierdie studie ondersoek die uitwerking van veranderings in die opbrengskoerse op die pryse van vasterentedraende eff ekte en opsies indien geen verskansing teen beleggingsrisiko toegepas word nie. Verder word verskillende verskansingstegnieke vergelyk ten einde te bepaal welke tegniek beleggingsrisiko die mees doeltreffendste kan beperk. Die studie toon aan dat dit wenslik is om beleggings en vasterentedraende effekte en opsies teen beleggingsrisiko te verskans. Empiriese toetse is op verskeie tegnieke gedoen om te bepaal watter verskansingstegnieke beleggingsrisiko die doeltreffendste kan beperk. Die gevolgtrekking is dat beleggingsrisiko inderdaad doeltreffend beperk kan word. Vir elke posisie in vasterentedraende en opsies is 'n spesifieke verskansingstegniek gei'dentifiseer om sodanige posisie doeltreffend in terme van winsgewendheid te verskans. / Yield on fixed interest bearing securities change as a result of changes in the supply and demand in the capital market. These changes in the yield influence the prices of fixed interest securities, as well as options on fixed interest securities and expose .investors in these instruments to investment risk. This study investigates the effect of changes in yield on the prices of fixed interest securities and options if no hedging against investment risk is instituted. Different techniques are compared to establish which technique will restrict investment risk effectively. This study shows that it is desirable to hedge investments in fixed interest securities and options against investment risk. Empirical tests were conducted on a variety of techniques to establish which technique would restrict investment risk effectively. The conclusion is that investment risk can be limited. A specific technique has been identified for each position in fixed interest securities and options that can hedge such a position effectively against investment risk in terms of profitability. / Business Management / MCOM (Bedryfsekonomie)

Lai, Kwok Tung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 64-66). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.9 / Chapter 3 --- Preliminary Analysis of Data --- p.17 / Chapter 3.1 --- Data --- p.17 / Chapter 3.2 --- Preliminary Analysis of Unspanned Stochastic Volatility --- p.20 / Chapter 4 --- A Jump-Diffusion Model for Federal Funds Target Rate --- p.23 / Chapter 4.1 --- Model Specification --- p.23 / Chapter 4.2 --- Estimation Result --- p.31 / Chapter 5 --- Pricing and Hedging Performance of Interest Rate Derivatives --- p.34 / Chapter 5.1 --- Pricing Performance of Interest Rate Cap --- p.34 / Chapter 5.2 --- Hedging Performance of Interest Rate Caplet --- p.38 / Chapter 5.3 --- Hedging Performance of Interest Rate Straddle --- p.42 / Chapter 6 --- Conclusion --- p.49 / Figures --- p.51 / Tables --- p.55 / Bibliography --- p.64

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2006. / The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file viewed on (May 2, 2007) Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Opbrengskoerse van vasterentedraende effekte verander as gevolg van veranderings in vraag en aanbod op die kapitaalmark. Die veranderinge in opbrengskoerse bei'nvloed die pryse van vasterentedraende effekte, asook van die opsies op hierdie effekte en stel beleggers in hierdie instrumente bloot aan beleggingsrisiko. Hierdie studie ondersoek die uitwerking van veranderings in die opbrengskoerse op die pryse van vasterentedraende eff ekte en opsies indien geen verskansing teen beleggingsrisiko toegepas word nie. Verder word verskillende verskansingstegnieke vergelyk ten einde te bepaal welke tegniek beleggingsrisiko die mees doeltreffendste kan beperk. Die studie toon aan dat dit wenslik is om beleggings en vasterentedraende effekte en opsies teen beleggingsrisiko te verskans. Empiriese toetse is op verskeie tegnieke gedoen om te bepaal watter verskansingstegnieke beleggingsrisiko die doeltreffendste kan beperk. Die gevolgtrekking is dat beleggingsrisiko inderdaad doeltreffend beperk kan word. Vir elke posisie in vasterentedraende en opsies is 'n spesifieke verskansingstegniek gei'dentifiseer om sodanige posisie doeltreffend in terme van winsgewendheid te verskans. / Yield on fixed interest bearing securities change as a result of changes in the supply and demand in the capital market. These changes in the yield influence the prices of fixed interest securities, as well as options on fixed interest securities and expose .investors in these instruments to investment risk. This study investigates the effect of changes in yield on the prices of fixed interest securities and options if no hedging against investment risk is instituted. Different techniques are compared to establish which technique will restrict investment risk effectively. This study shows that it is desirable to hedge investments in fixed interest securities and options against investment risk. Empirical tests were conducted on a variety of techniques to establish which technique would restrict investment risk effectively. The conclusion is that investment risk can be limited. A specific technique has been identified for each position in fixed interest securities and options that can hedge such a position effectively against investment risk in terms of profitability. / Business Management / MCOM (Bedryfsekonomie)

New information has an important role in asset price movement. This paper investigates the role of scheduled domestic news releases on the Australian government bond market. Specifically, it examines the impact of pre-announced macroeconomic news release on bond futures markets and associated market volatility. Furthermore, an EGARCH-in-mean model is used to determine the asymmetric response of the conditional volatility to either news release or unexpected changes of some news content. The results indicate that excess return of bond futures in the research period was leptokurtic (fat-tailed) with time-varying conditional heteroscedasticity. Day of the week volatility was also present but with a declining pace. It’s generally attributed to the release dates of announcements and information flow from offshore markets. Although announcement effects to the bond futures market were significant, they depended on the type of maturity. Finally, results from EGARCH indicate that fundamental lagging indicators such as CPI and GDP are always important in explaining the impact of news release on market volatility, whereas the unemployment rate has a reasonable role in announcement surprises. The data suggest the following conclusion: investors are seriously concerned with news releases on macroeconomic variables they can feasibly forecast because they are always fundamental and provide a partial indication of the future economy. Surprises from news content are also critical to investors because some important variables can only be forecasted with limited accuracy. Therefore, deviation from anticipated outcomes in the actual content also causes significant market movement. / Thesis(M.Comm.)-- School of Commerce, 2007.

This thesis comprises three essays that explore several theoretical and empirical features of affine term structure models. In the first essay, we focus on the ability of continuous-time affine term structure models to capture time variability in the second conditional moment. Using data on US Treasury yields, we conclude that affine term structure models are much better at extracting time-series volatility from the cross-section of yields than argued in the literature. These models have nonetheless difficulty capturing volatility dynamics at the short end of the maturity spectrum, perhaps indicating some form of segmentation between long-maturity and short-maturity bonds. These results are robust to the choice of sample period, interpolation method and estimation method. In the second essay, we propose the use of the unscented Kalman filter technique for the estimation of affine term structure models using non-linear instruments. We focus on swap rates and show that the unscented Kalman filter leads to important reductions in bias and gains in precision. The use of the unscented Kalman filter results in substantial improvements in out-of-sample forecasts. Our findings suggest that the unscented Kalman filter may prove to be a good approach for a number of problems in fixed income pricing in which the relationship between the state vector and the observations is nonlinear, such as the estimation of term structure models using interest rate derivatives or coupon bonds, and the estimation of quadratic term structure models. The third essay provides a tractable framework for pricing defaultable securities with recovery risk. Pricing solutions are explored for a large family of discrete-time affine processes and a five-factor Gaussian model is estimated on BBB and B Standard and Poor's yield indices. This rich econometric setup allows the model to simultaneously capture two important stylized facts of defaultable securities: The positive correlation between the loss given default and the intensity of default, and the negative correlation between the intensity of default and the risk-free interest rate.

This dissertation consists of two chapters. In the first chapter, I revisit the role of Central Banks, the principal entity responsible for economic and financial stability. I indicate that we can consider a universal role for a central bank instead of just a lender. I consider a model of the financial crisis and market rejuvenation where direct policies from the central bank are not efficient as the public authority lacks critical information about the status of the economy. In contrast, there exist agents who have superior information about the available assets and future projects of the economy. I show that the public authority can benefit from contracting the informed agents to the benefit of the society, where the central bank will trade off the benefit of higher financing from liquidity provision to informed agents for the cost of a public market contraction. Based on the insight of this chapter, I propose a proactive ``planner of last resort'' role for a central bank as opposed to a naive lender of last resort suggested by Bagehot’s dictum. In the second chapter, I investigate a fundamental and yet less explored moment of asset returns which is the expected time it takes for a given asset's return to change state from high to low or vice versa. I introduce formally the concept of ``expected traveling time'' in the context of asset prices and returns and demonstrate a number of results. Mainly, I provide pricing equations for a class of fixed-income assets, which their payoff would default to zero when particular states are triggered (similar to a risky bond). Moreover, I show that barrier like option prices can reveal transition probabilities of the underlying asset's return. Finally, I discuss the estimation of the traveling times from historical data where I identify a considerable variation of traveling times across different assets.

No description available.

Darbe atlikta detali aktualių straipsnių, nagrinėjančių įvairių veiksnių įtaka skolos vertybinių popierių pajamingumui, apžvalga. Išskirti keli pagrindiniai pajamingumo pokyčius lemiantys veiksniai: likvidumas, kredito rizika bei bendra makroekonominė padėtis. Siekiant įvertinti nagrinėjamų veiksnių įtaką skolos vertybinių popierių pajamingumo pokyčiams, sukurti vektorinės autoregresijos modeliai skolos vertybinių popierių portfeliams, apibendrinantiems skirtingas skolos vertybinių popierių klases. Palyginus modeliavimo rezultatus, pateikiamos baigiamojo darbo išvados. Darbą sudaro 18 dalių: įvadas, tikslas, uždaviniai, aktualumas, literatūros apžvalga, pagrindiniai skolos vertybinių popierių rinką charakterizuojantys rodikliai, statistiniai metodai, modelio aprašymas, kintamujų aprašymas bei transformacijos, statistinė analizė, trendo išskyrimas, stacionarumo patikrinimas, modeliavimas, modelių palyginimas bei scenarijų analizė, išvados, literatūros sąrašas. / A brief survey of relevant researches on different factors’ impact on bonds’ yields is provided in master thesis. Several main factors were identified: liquidity, credit risk and macroeconomic environment. In order to measure the impact of distinguished factors on the yields’ changes vector autoregressive models for fixed income securities portfolios, generalizing different asset classes, were created. The modeling results are described and analyzed, conclusions are made Structure: introduction, goal, task, relevance, literature overview, the main indicators of sixed income securities market, statistical methods, models’ describtion, variables’ description and transformations, statistical analysis, elimination of the trend, stacionarity check, modeling, models’ comparison and scenario analysis, conclusions, references.

Our thesis aims to help the market participants to understand the source of the risk in green bonds market. We estimate the liquidity risk effects in green bonds' yield spreads as well as controlling for credit risk, bond-specific chracteristics and macroeconomic variables. Both of our liquidity measures suggest that green bonds are more liquid than investment grade US corporate bonds. We find that liquidity effect in green bonds' yield spreads is pronounced, and the result is robust after controlling for potential endogeneity bias. The power of green bonds' liquidity premium is about 10 to 100 times as strong as speculative grade German bonds and investment grade US corporate bonds respectively. In addition to the lack of clear risk profile in green bonds market, our three-stage least squares regression shows that credit risk influences the liquidity risk of green bonds, this indicates that credit risk is a potential source of private information that affects the high liquidity of green bonds. This result has an implication for policy as the credit risk and liquidity risk could be the pitfalls in green bonds market.