The thesis studies the determinants of trust in the European Central Bank by employing various indicators. The main objective has been to assess the most significant determinants of trust and to study the impact of the Great Crisis on trust in the European Central Bank. First, the socio-demographic and macroeconomic variables have been studied as the predictors and socio-demographic ones have been confirmed to be more significant. We have also extended the regressions by two new variables: monetary policy transparency index and financial stability transparency index. Whereas the monetary policy transparency index has not been significantly correlated with trust, it has been proved that the financial stability transparency index has positive impact on the trust in the European Central Bank. Secondly, we have employed the bias-reduced linearization procedure for computation of the standard errors in order to account for clustering and serial correlation problems. After comparison with the robust standard errors, we have concluded that the robust standard errors are not able to completely deal with the clusters and serial correlation in data. Thirdly, it has been proved that the trust in the European Central Bank decreases during the crisis occurrence.

Diplomová práca je venovaná bankovým krízam, konkrétne problémom spojeným s ich identifikáciou a datovaním. V teoretickej časti sa zaoberá dvoma klasifikáciami prístupov ku identifikovaniu bankových kríz: Jedna rozlišuje medzi krízami identifikovanými na základe konkrétnych udalostí (takzvaný "prípadový" prístup) a krízami identifikovanými podľa indexov (takzvaný "indexový" prístup). Druhá klasifikácia rozdeľuje skupiny v rámci indexového prístupu (prezentované v 2. kapitole práce). Praktická časť diplomovej práce je venovaná bankovým krízam v jedenástich vybraných krajinách. Najprv je prezentovaná kompilácia bankových kríz v týchto krajinách, založená na 4 hlavných databázach bankových kríz (podľa "prípadového" prístupu). Následne sú konštruované 2 indexy s cieľom identifikovať (podľa nich) bankové krízy v týchto krajinách. Indexy sa volajú Banking Sector Fragility Index a Index of Money Pressure. Nakoniec sú výsledky oboch prístupov navzájom porovnané, a takisto sú navzájom porovnané výsledky oboch indexov. Bližšia diskusia je venovaná prípadu Českej republiky, kde indexy vykazujú lepšiu identifikáciu kríz než "prípadový" prístup. Tento fakt potvrdzujú aj akedmické štúdie českého bankovného sektoru. Indexy pre všetky krajiny aj s tabuľkami identifikovaných kríz sú priložené v prílohe na záver...

This study analyzes rainfall weather index insurance used for forage crops, in the Province of Ontario, Canada. The first objective of the study was to examine factors affecting the willingness of farmers to pay for forage rainfall index insurance, and a survey was undertaken. Some factors found to influence farmers' willingness to pay were knowledge and attitude regarding insurance, their risk profile, and socio-economic factors. A second objective of the study was to examine basis risk reduction approaches. Basis risk is the difference between the actual loss on a farm and the index measured loss payments that are determined by weather station data. The focus was to capture changing yield and weather relationships over crop growth stages. Using farm level forage yield and daily weather station data from Ontario, a multi-trigger index was designed using weighted crop cycle optimization, and results show that basis risk was substantially reduced. / May 2016

Modern GIS applications for transportation and defense often require the ability to store the evolving positions of a large number of objects as they are observed in motion, and to support queries on this spatiotemporal data in real time. Because the M-Tree has been proven as an index for spatial network databases, we have selected it to be enhanced as a spatiotemporal index. We present modifications to the tree which allow trajectory reconstruction with fast insert performance and modifications which allow the tree to be built with awareness of the spatial locality of reference in spatiotemporal data.

Polysaccharides are now popularly used in paper technology since they are able to improve mechanical properties of the paper. Xylan and pectin are two natural polymers that have a wide range of applications nowadays. These two polysaccharides can be used in their native forms as well as derivatives. In this study, xylan and pectin were modified to obtain cationic derivatives before adding into the paper for enhancement. The work was motivated by the fact that xylan and pectin share the same negative surface properties as cellulose. This leads to a slight repulsion effect between them once they are close. Their cationic derivatives, therefore, are believed to strengthen the paper due to electrostatic interactions between two oppositely charged objects beside hydrogen bonds. To fulfil the purposes, oat spelt xylan and apple pectin were chemically modified using different modification methods, including oxidation, amidation, and a combination of these two methods. A quantitative method to determine the adsorbed amount and relative retention capacity of xylan onto paper using high performance liquid chromatography was also developed. The results show that oat spelt and apple pectin, as well as their modified derivatives, can improve the paper mechanical properties. The oat spelt xylan significantly enhances the tensile strength, however, this contribution has a saturation level in correlation with the relative retention capacity of the xylan onto cellulose. The best retention capacity is achieved when 5% of xylan is added. This finding provides a practical approach to the application of xylan as a paper additive in consideration of economic issues. Although the application of apple pectin and its amidated derivatives in paper is rather rare, some interesting points have been discovered in this work. Among the apple pectin samples used, only the ones with low degree of esterification give a slight enhancement in tensile index at 5% dosage. The results also suggest that the dosage of the pectin added into the paper should not exceed 5% due to its viscous property at high concentrations.

OBJECTIVE: To compare skeletal maturation of female and male subjects from historic samples to present day subjects by assessing Fishman’s Skeletal Maturity Index (SMI). Present day eating habits and lifestyle have been suggested as factors in accelerating pubertal maturation seen within the last century. Consequently, Body Mass Index (BMI) as well as BMI percentile were evaluated to determine whether it is associated with significant differences in skeletal maturation patterns. METHODS: This pilot study included hand-wrist films from 92 subjects from the Burlington and Forsyth longitudinal growth studies (1959-1970) and 146 patients currently enrolled in the Orthodontic department of the Boston University Henry M. Goldman School of Dental Medicine (BUGSDM). The age of the subjects ranged between 7 and 16 years. SMI stage was determined and BMI and BMI percentile were calculated for each subject. RESULTS: The mean chronologic ages of all the SMI stages were not different in males or females when comparing the historic sample to the present sample except for the mean ages at SMI stage 7 and 11 for females and SMI stage 5 for males. Females in the present sample reached SMI stages 7 and 11 significantly earlier: 11.6 versus 13.3 years for SMI 7 (p<0.001) and 15.6 vs. 16.0 for SMI 11 (p<0.05). Males in the present sample also reached SMI 5 significantly earlier: 12.5 vs 13.8 years (p<0.05). It was also seen that present day females at SMI stage 11 not only matured earlier, but also had significantly higher mean BMI and mean BMI percentile than the females at the same stage in the historic sample. This suggests that BMI may be associated with acceleration of maturation among females at SMI stage 11 (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In both male and female subjects, there are differences between past and present populations at certain SMI stages. This evidence suggests that patterns of skeletal maturation may have changed and BMI may be associated with such changes. The differences in skeletal maturation between the two groups may also be a result of the different distribution of race in each group. In the current study, the historic sample consists of only Caucasian subjects whereas the present sample consists of subjects from many different backgrounds. As a result, effects of racial variations could have additionally played a role in the changes seen in skeletal maturation patterns. Increasing our sample size and controlling for race may help further elucidate these changes and determine if this transition towards earlier maturation is in fact due to increasing BMIs.

Thesis advisor: Zhijie Xiao / This dissertation consists of three independent studies in Financial Economics. The first chapter focuses on the predictive power of the implied correlation index on the future S&P 500 Index returns. The second chapter investigates a nonlinear contemporary relationship between stock returns and oil price changes. The last chapter discusses the relationship between impact trading costs and a number of market factors that affect the costs. In the first chapter, I investigate the predictive power of the implied correlation index on the future S&P 500 Index returns. This new index was launched by Chicago Board Option Exchange following 2007-2008 financial crisis. As it is derived from the S&P 500 Index option price and the option prices of the largest 50 S&P Index stocks, it is widely regarded by market participants as a gauge of average expected future stock return correlation. Because of its role in measuring systematic risks, any changes in this index may provide useful information about the future market movements. Motivated by this index's forward-looking characteristic, I propose a linear regression where the future S&P 500 Index multi-period return is regressed on a number of controls such as the current period changes of S&P index and the implied correlation index etc. I use weekly data and three different sample splits for in-sample estimation and out-of-sample performance evaluation. I find that the implied correlation index is informative for the period 2007-2009 in predicting the S&P 500 Index returns of 28 to 39 weeks. My model consistently outperforms the random walk model using the Superior Predictive Ability test. This implied correlation index is also useful in predicting the S&P index future multi-week returns for the period 2009-2011 and a longer time span from 2007-2011. I also do a test for the Efficient Market Hypothesis by incorporating the implied volatility index in the regression. There is no evidence supporting the view that the market is efficient for those time periods. In the second chapter, I estimate a nonlinear contemporary relationship between stock returns and oil price shocks. Previous studies on this issue suffer a number of limitations. For example, they do not control the factors potentially driving the economy and the oil market simultaneously. Although, Kilian and Park (2009) does a good job in identifying the relationship by distinguishing different oil market shocks, they use a linear regression framework and do not address the contemporary relationship. Considering the different impacts of different-size oil shocks on stock returns, I propose a two-step estimation procedure for identifying their relationship. In the first step, I follow Kilian and Park's methodology, i.e. a structural vector autoregression, to estimate the demand-specific oil shocks. During the second step, I use a nonparametric quantile regression to estimate the relationship between stock returns and the estimated exogenous oil price shocks. This way, I can control for the factors that simultaneously drive the economy and the oil market and am able to identify a nonlinear relationship of stock returns with oil shocks at the same time. The result shows that different-size oil price changes do have quite different impacts on stock returns. I also find an asymmetric effect of large oil shocks on large stock returns. Specifically, the positive impact of the large negative oil shocks on stock returns is much bigger than the negative impact of the large positive oil shocks on stock returns. I carry out a robust check by running regressions for a number of different model setups and the result persists. I also compare my model with Kilian and Park' SVAR model and it turns out that my model is a big improvement on their model in explaining the stock return variations. The third and last chapter focuses on impact trading cost and its relationship with several market factors. In this chapter, I focus on one of financial market microstructure issues, the immediate impact trading cost for major NASDAQ stocks. The immediate impact cost is the extra cost that market traders pay when they execute a large volume transaction without delay during the time when the market is less liquid. Because the market depth is defined to be the market's ability to sustain relatively large market orders without impacting the price of the security, this cost is closely linked to the trading volume. When trading volume becomes large, market liquidity gets worse and therefore the relationship between immediate impact cost and trading volume is virtually nonlinear. People trading in the market are interested in this relationship because they hope to figure out the best strategies in the situation where they want to execute a large volume order when the market is not deep. Another measure of market depth or liquidity people often use is market spread. Because it is the compensation for market makers' willingness to hold an imbalanced portfolio when the market is not liquid, it is regarded as another important factor linked to the impact cost. In this chapter, I use a nonparametric model to estimate the unknown relationship between immediate impact cost and market factors such as trading volume, market spread etc. for the major NASDAQ stocks. The result shows that, for many stock transactions, there is a certain volume threshold of trading volume beyond which impact costs increase dramatically. I find that for 99% of trading, immediate execution is optimal. I also identify a negative relationship between the occurrence likelihood of a large trading cost and the stock market cap. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2012. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

Thesis (M.Sc.)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Science, 2011 / A multifactor ecological integrity index, focusing on freshwater ecosystems on a quaternary catchment scale, can be of great benefit to conservation planning. No ecological integrity index has previously been developed for South African quaternary catchments. In this study an index was developed based on three environmental surrogates: land cover, river integrity and fish species conservation status, with the intention of identifying quaternary catchments of highest conservation concern. By developing such an index, the aim was to provide a general indication of the degree to which catchments have been transformed from a natural environment to a human altered environment, thereby identifying catchments most in need of conservation. For the three available datasets, indices were developed using a five category point-scoring system. A score of one indicates a completely degraded environment and a score of five indicates a pristine environment. The original land cover data consisted of 49 different land cover types which were reduced to five land cover transformation scores. Available river integrity data already existed in five categories and a numerical score of one to five was applied to each category. Fish species conservation status was scored according to the IUCN red data list classifications on a similar basis. Subsequently, a weighted mean score expressed as a percentage was calculated for the three indices for each quaternary catchment. These indices indicate the degree of change/transformation from a natural system (100%) to a largely degraded system (20%). Ultimately, an ecological integrity index was calculated as a mean value of the three related but independent indices. However, the results of the developed ecological integrity index were not representative of real world conditions. This is largely attributed to the lack of complete data found in two out of the three datasets used in the study. Some of the main limitations encountered were the lack of river segment definitions within each catchment and the incomplete and un-systematic collected fish species data records. The land cover data, on the contrary, was of high definition and high standard. It is recommended that in the interim, the developed land transformation index, based on a detailed analysis of land cover, be used as an indicator index of ecological integrity of catchments

Airport pavements and longitudinal elevation profiles, in conjunction with the aircraft, form a system where vertical displacements are produced that can compromise their performance. Rough pavements are generally responsible for the occurrence of dynamic responses such as vertical accelerations and pavement loads that affect the aircraft, increase stopping distance and difficult to read the cockpit instrumentation. To approach this problem, the International Roughness Index (IRI) and the Boeing Bump Index (BBI) are currently used to quantify airport pavement roughness and to identify sections that need maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) activities. However, such indices were developed only based on the dynamic responses of an automobile at 80 km/h to the irregularities of road pavements, and from the physical characteristics of the irregularities, respectively, without considering the effect of the aircraft dynamic response. In addition, current critical limits for IRI and BBI can misjudge the real condition of the pavement. This research aims to evaluate the effect of airport pavement roughness on aircraft dynamic response in terms of vertical accelerations at the aircraft cockpit (VACP) and at the center of gravity (VACG), as well of dynamic loads at the nose, main and rear landing gear (NGPL, MGPL, and RGPL), which may compromise the aircraft safety and the pavement performance. The ProFAA software was used to compute both indices and to simulate the responses of 4 representative aircraft traversing 20 runway profiles at 10 operational speeds varying from 20 to 200 knots (37 to 370 km/h). Statistical comparisons and regression analyses between roughness indices and dynamic responses were carried out. Principal results indicated that VACP was 50% higher than VACG and that NGPL was approximately 80% higher than MGPL. In addition, it was observed that VACP exceeds 0.40 g when the IRI is higher than 3.7 m/km and that NGPL doubles the static load when the IRI is higher than 3.3 m/km. A case study presented to compare these limits shown that decision-making based on the dynamic response of the aircraft can bring significant differences in the number and quality of M&R activities. / Os pavimentos aeroportuários e os perfis de elevação longitudinal, em conjunto com as aeronaves, formam um sistema onde são produzidos deslocamentos verticais que podem comprometer seu desempenho. Pavimentos irregulares são geralmente responsáveis pela ocorrência de respostas dinâmicas como acelerações verticais e carregamentos no pavimento que podem danificar a aeronave, aumentar a distância de parada e dificultar a leitura dos instrumentos de navegação na cabine dos pilotos. Para abordar esse problema, os índices International Roughness Index (IRI) e Boeing Bump Index (BBI) são utilizados atualmente para quantificar a irregularidade longitudinal dos pavimentos aeroportuários e identificar seções que demandem atividades de manutenção e reabilitação (M&R). No entanto, tais índices foram desenvolvidos apenas com base nas respostas dinâmicas de um automóvel a 80 km/h às irregularidades dos pavimentos rodoviários e a partir das características físicas das irregularidades, respectivamente, sem considerar o efeito da resposta dinâmica das aeronaves. Ainda, os limites críticos atuais para IRI e BBI podem subestimar a condição real do pavimento. Esta pesquisa objetiva avaliar o efeito da irregularidade longitudinal na resposta dinâmica das aeronaves em termos de acelerações verticais na cabine dos pilotos (VACP) e no centro de gravidade (VACG) assim como os carregamentos no trem de pouso de nariz, principal e traseiro (NGPL, MGPL e RGPL, respectivamente), que podem comprometer a segurança das aeronaves e o desempenho do pavimento. O software ProFAA foi utilizado para calcular os dois índices e para simular as respostas de 4 aeronaves representativas operando 20 pistas de pouso e decolagem em 10 velocidades de operação variando de 20 a 200 nós (37 a 370 km/h). Comparações estatísticas e análises de regressão entre índices e respostas dinâmicas foram realizadas. Os principais resultados indicaram que VACP foi 50% maior do que VACG e que NGPL foi aproximadamente 80% maior do que MGPL. Além disso, observou-se que VACP ultrapassa 0,40 g quando o IRI está acima de 3,7 m/km e que NGPL dobra a carga estática quando o IRI está acima de 3,3 m/km. Um estudo de caso apresentado para comparar esses limites indicou que a tomada de decisão baseada na resposta dinâmica das aeronaves pode trazer diferenças significativas na quantidade e qualidade das atividades de M&R.

O objetivo deste estudo é estimar o viés de substituição de produtos no cálculo da inflação ao consumidor, ou seja, estimar a inflação levando em conta a possibilidade da troca de bens dentro de uma cesta de produtos em resposta à mudança de preços relativos. Isso ocorre porque a fórmula utilizada atualmente pelo IBGE, tanto para o INPC quanto para o IPCA, para medir a inflação ao consumidor é a de Laspeyres modificado base móvel (índice do Bureau), que considera a mesma cesta de bens e serviços ao longo do tempo. Este índice tende a superestimar o aumento do custo de vida justamente por não considerar as trocas. Seguindo trabalhos anteriores, a estimação do viés se deu comparando um índice Laspeyres para um subconjunto do IPCA com a inflação mensurada pelo índice de Theil-Tornqvist para o mesmo subconjunto de produtos. Este índice se aproxima de um índice de custo de vida, logo, que considera a substituição de bens. No entanto, ele necessita atualizações freqüentes das cestas de bens e serviços ou das estruturas de ponderação. Como não existem no Brasil pesquisas de consumo das famílias que forneça estruturas de ponderações periódicas, estas tiveram que ser estimadas. Para tanto, foram utilizadas previsões de um modelo de sistema de demanda AIDS baseado nos microdados da POF 95-96. O viés de substituição estimado foi de 3,33 p.p. de agosto de 1999 a junho de 2006, o que equivale a dizer que a inflação ao consumidor foi superestimada em 0,31 p.p. ao ano. Pela impossibilidade de trabalhar com o nível mais desagregado do IPCA (o subitem), certamente, o viés calculado é subestimado. Caso o viés estimado fosse descontado dos reajustes dados às aposentadorias, pensões e demais auxílios concedidos pelo Ministério da Previdência e Assistência Social, o governo poderia ter poupado de 2000 a junho de 2006, aproximadamente, R$ 8 bilhões. / The objective of this study is to estimate the substitution of products bias in the calculation of consumer inflation, therefore, estimate the inflation taking into account the possibility of switching goods in a basket of products, in response to a change in relative prices. This happens because the estimation formula used by IBGE, both with INPC an IPCA, to measure consumer inflation is Laspeyres (Bureau\'s index), witch considers the same basket of goods over time. This index tends to overestimate the increase in the living cost, by not taking into account the substitution of products. Following previous works, the estimation of the bias was made comparing a Lapeyres index for a subgroups of IPCA with the inflation measure by the Theil-Tornqvist index for the same subgroups. This gets closer to an index of cost of living, which considers the substitution of goods. However, it needs frequent updates of the baskets of goods and services or of the weighted structures. As there are no surveys of family consumption in Brazil that provide periodic weighted structures, these had to be estimated. To do it, were used micro data of POF 95-96. The substitution bias estimated was 3,33 p.p of August 1999 to June 2006, which is equivalent of saying that the consumer inflation was overestimated in 0,31 p.p per year. With the impossibility of working with a more highly disaggregated level of IPCA (the sub items), certainly the calculated bias was underestimated. If the bias estimated was discounted from adjustment given to retirement, pensions and other benefits granted by the Ministry of Welfare and Social Assistance, the government could have saved, from 2000 to June 2006, approximately R$ 8 billions.