Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-07-07T19:08:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Camila Saúde da Silva.pdf: 1143896 bytes, checksum: 7d9be6a1a6912457222c5c679e26f19b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-07T19:08:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Camila Saúde da Silva.pdf: 1143896 bytes, checksum: 7d9be6a1a6912457222c5c679e26f19b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-14 / ApexBrasil - Agência Brasileira de Promoção de Exportações e Investimentos / Esta dissertação objetiva analisar comparativamente a evolução dos fluxos de investimento externo direto na economia mundial e brasileira no período entre 1994 e 2011. A metodologia é baseada na estatística descritiva utilizando a correlação de Pearson e dados secundários relacionados com os fluxos de investimento externo direto, estoque, além da origem dos investimentos (países) e discriminação das atividades receptoras de investimento. Examinaram-se inicialmente os fluxos mundiais e constatou-se que os mesmos têm aumentando, atingindo US$ 1,5 trilhões em 2011. Os fluxos também têm se direcionado para os países em desenvolvimento que apresentaram aumento de 12% em 2011 com relação ao ano anterior. Com relação à origem dos investimentos diretos externos, os países que mais investiram no mundo foram por região, Portugal, Estados Unidos, Japão e Nova Zelândia. As atividades da economia que mais receberam investimento externo direto mundial, foram indústria e serviços, com destaque para a indústria química e serviços de utilidade pública. No caso brasileiro, os países que mais investiram foram os Países Baixos, seguido dos EUA e Espanha. Nas atividades econômicas, o Brasil recebeu maiores investimentos no setor de serviços em 2011, com destaque para os serviços financeiros. O impacto na balança comercial e emprego foram positivos, todavia, com taxas de crescimento bem distintas. No caso do investimento brasileiro no exterior, os fluxos se direcionaram em sua maioria para os Países Baixos, e as atividades econômicas mais investidas no mundo pelas multinacionais brasileiras foram petróleo e gás natural e extração de minerais metálicos, metalúrgica e serviços financeiros. Com a análise da correlação entre os fluxos de investimento direto e o PIB, taxa de câmbio, taxa de inflação, taxa de juros e taxa de desemprego, concluiu-se que o produto interno bruto está positivamente relacionado com os fluxos de investimento direto com intensidade alta; a relação com a taxa de câmbio se mostrou positiva em alguns anos e negativa em outros; a taxa de inflação, a taxa de juros e a taxa de desemprego se mostraram negativamente relacionadas com os fluxos, confirmando a teoria. / This dissertation aims to comparatively analyze the evolution of FDI flows in the world economy and Brazil between 1994 and 2011. The methodology is based on descriptive statistics and analysis of secondary data related to flows of foreign direct investment, stock, beyond the origin of investments (countries) and discrimination against recipients of investment activities. Were examined initially global flows and found that they are increasing, reaching $ 1.5 trillion in 2011. The flows have also been directed to developing countries which showed an increase of 12% in 2011 compared with the previous year. Regarding the origin of foreign direct investment, countries that have invested most in the world by region, Portugal, United States, Japan and New Zealand. The activities of the economy that received more foreign direct investment worldwide, were industry and services, with emphasis on the chemical industry and utilities. In Brazil, the countries that invested were the Netherlands, followed by the USA and Spain. In economic activities, the country received more investment in the service sector in 2011, with emphasis on financial services. The impact on the trade balance and employment were positive, however, with very different growth rates. In the case of Brazilian investment abroad, the flow is directed mostly to the Netherlands, and economic activities more invested in the world by Brazilian multinationals were oil and natural gas extraction and metal ore, metallurgical and financial services. With the analysis of the correlation between flows of direct investment and GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate and unemployment rate, it was concluded that the gross domestic product is positively related to direct investment flows with high intensity , the relationship with the exchange rate was positive in some years and negative in others, the rate of inflation, the interest rate and the unemployment rate showed negatively related flows, confirming the theory.

Questa tesi presenta nuova evidenza empirica sulla relazione tra allocazione dei fattori di produzione e differenze di produttivita' tra paesi (primo capitolo) e tra imprese (secondo capitolo). Il primo capitolo analizza la questione degli scarsi movimenti di capitale tra paesi ricchi e paesi poveri (Lucas' paradox). Una calibrazione del modello neoclassico applicata a nuovi dati mostra come, una volta tenuto conto delle differenze nello stock di capitale umano e nella remunerazione del fattore capitale, i rendimenti da capitale fisico sono molti simili tra paesi ricchi e paesi poveri. Il secondo capitolo studia la relazione tra l'allocazione dei fattori fra imprese e la produttivita' totale dei fattori (TFP). Applicando il modello di Hsieh e Klenow (2009) a dati di imprese manifatturiere di Cile e Messico negli anni '80, si nota una minore presenza di distorsioni nell'allocazione dei fattori in Cile. Questa piu' efficiente allocazione dei fattori di produzione tra imprese potrebbe aiutare a capire perche' l'economia cilena, diversamente da quella messicana, recupero' velocemente dopo la crisi dei primi anni '80. / This Thesis provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between the allocation of factors of production and differences in productivity across countries (first chapter) and across firms (second chapter). In the first chapter I address the issue of small capital flows between rich and poor countries (the so-called Lucas' paradox) observed in data. Applying a calibration approach to new data I show that, taking into account differences in human capital and in the capital share on output, returns to physical capital in rich and poor countries are fairly close. In the second chapter I investigate the relationship between the allocation of factors across firms within a country and TFP. Applying the model proposed by Hsieh and Klenow (2009) to firm level data of Chile and Mexico during 1980s I find that there are less distortions operating on average in the Chilean manufacturing sector with respect to the Mexican one. I argue that the more efficient allocation of factors across firms could help explain why Chile recovered rapidly while Mexico stagnated after the crisis of the early 1980s.

The author valorizes also his practical experiences of a left-oriented politician and first results from sociological research has set an objective to check two hypotheses: 1) that in the conditions of global capitalism development to save and fully revitalize the social state in his conception of a factor that is not only mitigating urgent social inequalities, but also raise the society and cultivates the human being, 2) that in the process of capitalist crises and the crises of a social state, senior citizens living from their pensions belong to the most threatened social groups. Methodologically the author claims to belong to modern Marxism and critically demarcate himself both from stalinism as well as from the recent official ideology, above all neoliberalism. The author refuses also the attempts to equate Marxism and the policy of KSČM to the ideology of the past governing class of controlling apparatus and comprehend the KSČM as a party disguised as Stalinist, anti human and non-democratic and in agreement with the program of this party that it represent in the Parliament of Czech Republic belongs to the self- managed socialism as a long-term objective of a societal transformation. As far as the method is concerned, in the view of a certain interdisciplinarity of the present publication, the...

The inability to effectively hedge against unfavourable exchange rate movements, using the current forward exchange rate as the only guideline, is a key inhibiting factor of international trade. Market participants use the current forward exchange rate quoted in the market to make decisions regarding future exchange rate changes. However, the current forward exchange rate is not solely determined by the interaction of demand and supply, but is also a mechanistic estimation, which is based on the current spot exchange rate and the carry cost of the transaction. Results of various studies, including this study, demonstrated that the current forward exchange rate differs substantially from the realized future spot exchange rate. This phenomenon is known as the exchange rate puzzle. This study contributes to the dynamics of modelling exchange rate theories by developing an exchange rate model that has the ability to explain the realized future spot exchange rate and the exchange rate puzzle. The exchange rate model is based only on current (time t) economic fundamentals and includes an alternative approach of incorporating the impact of the interaction of two international financial markets into the model. This study derived a unique exchange rate model, which proves that the exchange rate puzzle is a pseudo problem. The pseudo problem is based on the generally excepted fallacy that current non–stationary, level time series data cannot be used to model exchange rate theories, because of the incorrect assumption that all the available econometric methods yield statistically insignificant results due to spurious regressions. Empirical evidence conclusively shows that using non–stationary, level time series data of current economic fundamentals can statistically significantly explain the realized future spot exchange rate and, therefore, that the exchange rate puzzle can be solved. This model will give market participants in the foreign exchange market a better indication of expected future exchange rates, which will considerably reduce the dependence on the mechanistically derived forward points. The newly derived exchange rate model will also have an influence on the demand and supply of forward exchange, resulting in forward points that are a more accurate prediction of the realized future exchange rate. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

The inability to effectively hedge against unfavourable exchange rate movements, using the current forward exchange rate as the only guideline, is a key inhibiting factor of international trade. Market participants use the current forward exchange rate quoted in the market to make decisions regarding future exchange rate changes. However, the current forward exchange rate is not solely determined by the interaction of demand and supply, but is also a mechanistic estimation, which is based on the current spot exchange rate and the carry cost of the transaction. Results of various studies, including this study, demonstrated that the current forward exchange rate differs substantially from the realized future spot exchange rate. This phenomenon is known as the exchange rate puzzle. This study contributes to the dynamics of modelling exchange rate theories by developing an exchange rate model that has the ability to explain the realized future spot exchange rate and the exchange rate puzzle. The exchange rate model is based only on current (time t) economic fundamentals and includes an alternative approach of incorporating the impact of the interaction of two international financial markets into the model. This study derived a unique exchange rate model, which proves that the exchange rate puzzle is a pseudo problem. The pseudo problem is based on the generally excepted fallacy that current non–stationary, level time series data cannot be used to model exchange rate theories, because of the incorrect assumption that all the available econometric methods yield statistically insignificant results due to spurious regressions. Empirical evidence conclusively shows that using non–stationary, level time series data of current economic fundamentals can statistically significantly explain the realized future spot exchange rate and, therefore, that the exchange rate puzzle can be solved. This model will give market participants in the foreign exchange market a better indication of expected future exchange rates, which will considerably reduce the dependence on the mechanistically derived forward points. The newly derived exchange rate model will also have an influence on the demand and supply of forward exchange, resulting in forward points that are a more accurate prediction of the realized future exchange rate. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.