The GARCH model estimates the volatility of a time series. Information criteria are often used to determine orders of the GARCH model, although their suit- ability is not known. This thesis focuses on the order selection of the GARCH model using information criteria. The simulation study investigates whether in- formation criteria are appropriate for the model selection and how the selection depends on the order, number of observations, distribution of innovations, estima- tion method or model parameters. The predictive capabilities of models selected by information criteria are compared to the true model. 1

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Capable and well-organized data mining algorithms are essential and fundamental to helpful, useful, and successful knowledge discovery in databases. We discuss several data mining algorithms including genetic algorithms (GAs). In addition, we propose a modified multivariate Newton's method (NM) approach to data mining of technical data. Several strategies are employed to stabilize Newton's method to pathological function behavior. NM is compared to GAs and to the simplex evolutionary operation algorithm (EVOP). We find that GAs, NM, and EVOP all perform efficiently for well-behaved global optimization functions with NM providing an exponential improvement in convergence rate. For local optimization problems, we find that GAs and EVOP do not provide the desired convergence rate, accuracy, or precision compared to NM for technical data. We find that GAs are favored for their simplicity while NM would be favored for its performance.

In this thesis, we present the use of logistic regression method to develop a credit scoring modelusing the raw data of 4447 customers of a bank. The data of customers is collected under 14independent explanatory variables and 1 default indicator. The objective of this thesis is toidentify optimal coefficients. In order to clean data, the raw data set was put through variousdata calibration techniques such as Kurtosis, Skewness, Winsorization to eliminate outliers.On this winsorized dataset, LOGIT analysis is applied in two rounds with multiple statisticaltests. These tests aim to estimate the significance of each independent variable and modelfitness. The optimal coefficients can be used to obtain the credit scores for new customers witha new data set and rank them according to their credit risk.

The search for the sources of astrophysical neutrinos is a central open question in particle astrophysics. Thanks to substantial experimental efforts, we now have large-scale neutrino detectors in the oceans and polar ice. The neutrino sky seems mostly isotropic, but hints of possible source-neutrino associations have started to emerge, leading to much excitement within the astrophysics community. As more data are collected and future experiments planned, the question of how to statistically quantify point source detection in a robust way becomes increasingly pertinent. The standard approach to null-hypothesis testing leads to reporting the results in terms of a p-value, with detection typically corresponding to surpassing the coveted 5-sigma threshold. While widely used, p-values and significance thresholds are notorious in the statistical community as challenging to interpret and potentially misleading. We explore an alternative Bayesian approach to reporting point source detection and the connections and differences with the frequentist view. In this thesis, two methods for associating neutrino events to candidate sources are implemented on data from a simplified simulation of high-energy neutrino generation and detection. One is a maximum likelihood-based method that has been used in some high-profile articles, and the alternative uses Bayesian Hierarchical modelling with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to sample the joint posterior of key parameters. Both methods are applied to a set of test cases to gauge their differences and similarities when applied on identical data. The comparisons suggest the applicability of this Bayesian approach as alternative or complement to the frequentist, and illustrate how the two approaches differ. A discussion is also conducted on the applicability and validity of the study itself as well as some potential benefits of incorporating a Bayesian framework, with suggestions for additional aspects to analyze. / Sökandet efter källorna till astrofysiska neutriner är en central öppen fråga i astropartikel- fysik. Tack vare omfattande experimentella ansträngningar har vi nu storskaliga neutrino-detektorer i haven och polarisen. Neutrinohimlen verkar mestadels isotropisk, men antydningar till möjliga källneutrinoföreningar har börjat antydas, vilket har lett till mycket spänning inom astrofysikgemenskapen. När mer data samlas in och framtida experiment planeras, blir frågan om hur man statistiskt kvantifierar punktkälledetektering på ett robust sätt alltmer relevant. Standardmetoden för nollhypotes-testning leder ofta till rapportering av resultat i termer av p-värden, då en specifik tröskel i signifikans eftertraktas. Samtidigt som att vara starkt utbredda, är p-värden och signifikansgränser mycket omdiskuterade i det statistiska samfundet angående deras tolkning. Vi utforskar en alternativ Bayesisk inställning till utvärderingen av punktkälldetektering och jämför denna med den frekvensentistiska utgångspunkten. I denna uppsats tillämpas två metoder för att associera neutrinohändelser till kandidatkällor på basis av simulerad data. Den första använder en maximum likelihood-metod anpassad från vissa uppmärksammade rapporter, medan den andra använder Hamiltonsk Monte Carlo till att approximera den gemensamma aposteriorifördelningen hos modellens parametrar. Båda metoderna tillämpas på en uppsättning testfall för att uppskatta deras skillnader och likheter tillämpade på identisk data. Jämförelserna antyder tillämpligheten av den Bayesianska som alternativ eller komplement till den klassiska, och illustrerar hur de två metoderna skiljer sig åt. En diskussion förs också om validiteten av studien i sig samt några potentiella fördelar med att använda ett Bayesiskt ramverk, med förslag på ytterligare aspekter att analysera.

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