Approved for public release, distribution unlimited / The promotion of democracy in the Arab world, an area to date resistant to effective political liberalization, hasbecome a central pillar in American Middle East foreign policy as well as an integral element in the Global Waron Terrorism (GWOT). How will this advocacy of democracy be received, given our theoretical and historicalknowledge? The underlying assumption of U.S. policy is that democracy will moderate some of the anti-Americansentiments from the region as well as undermine terrorist activities and support. Will overt American promotion ofdemocracy cause these states to democratize? Using aspects of social movement theory, this thesis examines Arabreactions to public American promotion of democracy. I argue that America's campaign is counterproductivebecause it has polarized the political discourse, a result which weakens potential sources of internal pressure anddistorts understandings of democracy, thus facilitating states maintenance of the status quo. It does this throughframing the message as inherently American and spurring opposing movements. Using al-Jazeera data derivedfrom the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), I recorded the connotations associated with eacharticulation of the word "democracy" to create a sample of competing frames to observe opposing movementdevelopments and frame contest trends.

Thesis explains why Chile maintains military budgets in excess of its threat levels. Historically, Chile required a well-funded and capable military due to tense regional relations. However, resolution of border conflicts, equipment acquisitions and superior economic performance reduced Chile's threats during the 1990's. Nonetheless, analysts attributed the continued high military budgets to an authoritarian hangover following General Pinochet's reign (1973-1989). Pinochet's 1998 arrest and trial diminished the power of the military, calling into question past explanations. The judiciary purged the state of junta era commanders, younger more flexible leadership came to power and the political parties agreed on constitutional reform. Yet, after sweeping constitutional reforms, budgets remained high. This thesis argues the government maintained defense budgets in order to further the "normalization" of civil-military relations. The military received high budgets and in turn recognized past human right abuses and pledged subordination. With relations stable, both the civilian elite and military agreed to reorient the military's mission towards peacekeeping. Peacekeeping reinforces civil-military relations while benefiting each party individually. The civilian elite receive international prestige furthering their foreign policy goals while the military's mission and budgets are justified. The stable equilibrium guarantees Chile will remain a regional leader in peacekeeping for the future.

The 9/11 terror attacks prompted a large number of public opinion surveys in the Islamic world by Gallup, Pew, Zogby, and others seeking to understand the level and nature of muslim antagonism toward America. Far less attention has been paid to public opinion surveys of Americans concerning their views of Islam, Muslims, and Muslim countries. This thesis sorts through the surveys and presents some surprising findings. First, while American views of Muslim have generally been rather unfavorable, the events of 9/11 did not have a marked change on those views. Moreover, Americans tend to make distinctions between Muslims as individuals, toward whom they have a relatively favorable view; Muslim countries, toward which they have a varied view; and Islam as a religion, toward which they have the most negative view. In addition, the polls show that misunderstandings about Islam and Muslims are pervasive among Americans. This thesis argues that the American Muslim community must play a leading role in correcting such misperceptions. In the absence of a sustained effort, there is little in the survey data that would lead one to believe that a change in perception is imminent.

Under the leadership of the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), the military is undergoing transformation to more effectively counter the asymmetric threat of non-state terrorists and extremists in the "long war." After five years, however, one component of national security strategy is visibly unfulfilled: military pursuit of terrorists and extremists outside of Afghanistan and Iraq. The lack of offensive military efforts outside of areas designated as combat zones creates the impression that the long war has stalled. Overt offensive military operations targeting non-state actors may advance the counterterrorism mission and serve as a deterrent. This thesis identifies and analyzes four major constraints on the conduct of such operations: legal concerns about the use of force, use of the CIA for covert paramilitary activities, limits on USSOCOM and Special Operations Forces, and civilian and military leaders' aversion to risk. It describes the historical, bureaucratic and cultural causes of the constraints, concluding with recommendations to allow the US government and the US military to pursue non-state terrorists and extremists with overt offensive military operations.

Approved for public release, distribution unlimited / "Over the last few decades, a number of Islamist groups, some listed as terrorist, have increasingly participated in political elections and shown a pattern of moderation. What explains the move away from violence to achieve group goals? Analyzing three cases, Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and Hamas in the occupied Palestinian territories, this thesis examines the causes of moderation and willingness to participate in existing political structures. Using aspects of social movement theory, it is argued that institutionalization and interests of maintaining membership explain why, when political opportunities arise, Islamist groups take the democratic path and forego violence. The conclusions aid in promoting democracy in the region by demonstrating when Islamist groups are willing to participate in formal politics."--p. i.

West Papua in the easternmost area of Indonesia has long been recognized as one of its most controversial provinces. Since its integration into the Republic of Indonesia in 1969, recurring controversy has colored many aspects of West Papuans' everyday lives and the province's relationship to the rest of Indonesia. The problems in West Papua are rooted in the way that it was originally integrated, which, according to some scholars, is "unacceptable". They argue that the Indonesian government manipulated the self-determination process and its results. The government, however, has always denied this claim, noting in its legal argumentation, for instance, the involvement of the United Nations and the international community in the process of self-determination, known as "The Act of Free Choice." Far from being resolved, the problems in West Papua have been exacerbated by the Indonesian government's policies, which rely heavily on a strict security approach in an effort to suppress the secessionist movement. As part of its attempt to address the problems comprehensively, the Indonesian government introduced a "special autonomy" bill for West Papua in late 2001. The bill, which was drafted mostly by indigenous West Papuans, passed the Indonesian parliament as Law No. 21 in November. Implementation of the law, however, has not worked as expected. Many of the law's requirements either have not been implemented or have been only minimally implemented, even five years after the law's promulgation. As a result, West Papuans have become increasingly skeptical and cynical about the government's promises. Obviously, the Indonesian government must deal with and resolve the problems inherent in the implementation of the law's requirements. This thesis addresses some of those problems and provides recommendations for potential solutions.

The U.S. government has utilized exiles for decades, the latest example being the use of Iraqi exiles starting after the Gulf War. For close to thirteen years America supported Iraqi opposition groups, overtly after the signing of the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998. DoD's role until months before the invasion of Iraq was minimal, but then increased dramatically. Iraqi opposition groups provided names of volunteers willing to work with the U.S. military. Most were turned away for a number of reasons, but those selected were trained in civil affairs operations and embedded with great success in small teams into U.S. civil affairs units. Another program, even more ad hoc, involved Ahmad Chalabi's fighting forces. Not receiving the welcome from Iraqis that intelligence experts told them to expect, U.S. military commanders were eager to put an "Iraqi face" on operations and build the core of the new Iraqi army. Chalabi's fighters, escorted by Army Special Forces A-Teams, provided a number of useful services to the war effort, but with minimal logistical support and hindered by Chalabi's political ambitions, they were quickly disbanded. Exiles have many of the skills necessary in conventional and asymmetric warfare: language skills, familial ties, and cultural proficiency. But this unique segment of our society needs to be better utilized by DoD. After analyzing each of the Iraqi exile programs in detail, suggestions on how to harness needed skills in the future are offered.

CHDS State/Local / consider their role in Homeland Security. Significant federal studies provided federal agencies with direction on needed changes; for state law enforcement there remains much to study. Deployment of traffic law enforcement officers in many agencies has not changed since 9/11, and remains a substantial resource that could be used for prevention of terrorist attacks. Changing deployment priorities of traffic law enforcement officers is complicated by the impact it could have on traffic safety and the over 40,000 people that are killed on America's highways every year. It becomes more complex with issues such as civil liberties concerns, political acceptability, citizen expectations and regulatory compliance. This thesis evaluates options for the deployment of traffic law enforcement officers to enhance Homeland Security efforts. It examines the value of traffic officers to overall deterrence plans and calls for the increased use of targeted and concentrated traffic patrols rather than random patrols. It recommends a strategy of intelligence based deployments as part of a layered security system that can maximize the total impact to the traffic safety and Homeland Security missions of state law enforcement agencies. / Captain, Washington State Patrol

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / This thesis examines the origins and implications of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) established in 2001 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It analyzes the organization from the Chinese, Russian, and Central Asian states' perspective. Chinese and Russian motives for creating the SCO appear to have been threefold. First, both sought an organization dedicated to providing security and stability to the Central Asian region. Second, both wished to foster stronger economic ties with the oil and natural gas-rich former Soviet republics. Finally, both favored stemming the influence of external powers, notably the United States. The Central Asian states' motives for joining the SCO emanate from security and economic needs. The increase in the U.S. military presence in the region since October 2001 has drawn no response from the SCO. Although some Russian politicians and military officers have criticized it, the governments of China and Russia seam to realize that the U.S. presence may help bring stability to the Central Asian region. Many uncertainties burden the SCO's future. It may constitute another failed attempt to establish a security alliance or turn into a significant voice in international politics, especially with the inclusion of additional members. / Lieutenant, United States Navy

Terrorist attacks were once predominately focused on US military posts or US embassies overseas, and the perception has been the danger was "over there". However there have been recent foreign and domestic terrorist attacks have occurring in the US. The most common form of the attack is a moving or stationary vehicle to carrying home-made explosives and detonating it at Federal, commercial, industrial, or educational facilities which are perceived symbols of the US. This report will review the general properties of a bomb blast, defense plan development, the concept of defense in depth for an urban planning layout, and preventing progressive collapse of a structure. A review of lessons learned from the case study of the 1993 World Trade Center, Oklahoma City, Beirut, and Khobar Towers. The last area will be final conclusions and recommendations when considering defensive applications. / Contract Number: N62271-97-G-0052.