Magister Commercii - MCom / This mini-thesis examines the speed and magnitude of exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in South Africa. The shift from fixed exchange rate regimes to a system of floating exchange rates by many countries after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system increased the role of the exchange rate in the determination of inflation. In theory, exchange rate depreciation causes inflation via a process called exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). The effect of exchange rate variations on inflation is of special interest to policy makers especially for countries under inflation targeting regimes. The knowledge of the speed and magnitude of ERPT to domestic inflation (import, producer and consumer inflation) is important in the designing of an optimal monetary policy mix which is needed to ensure price stability. South Africa is one of the countries that moved to an inflation targeting regime under a system of a floating exchange rate. This study therefore aims to empirically determine the speed and magnitude of ERPT to domestic prices in the short run and long run using VAR and VEC models. The empirical results show that ERPT to import prices is immediate and moderately high reaching a peak of about 45% and 47% within three quarters for the VAR and VEC models respectively. In contrast, ERPT to producer and consumer prices is gradual and low. For instance, long-run ERPT is below 30% for producer prices and around 20% for consumer prices. Moreover, the results indicate a high pass-through (above 75%) of producer price shocks to consumer prices. In sharp contrast, the extent of pass-through of import price shocks to consumer prices as reported in the VECM is low at approximately 10% in the short run and declining to approximately 2% in the long run. / National Research Foundation (NRF)

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Agricultural Economics / Glynn T. Tonsor / The U.S. beef industry is comprised of multiple, vertically connected segments. Beginning at the cow-calf level, cattle move through the industry to backgrounding/stocker operations, feedlots, and then to beef packers. The beef produced then continues to move through the marketing channel from beef packers to wholesalers and on to multiple final consumer outlets. Each level of the beef industry has both distinct and related economic issues. This dissertation contains three essays on beef cattle economics. Essay 1 focuses on price and animal health risk management at the feedlot level. Essays 2 and 3 explore how upstream demand changes impact primary beef suppliers. The objective of Essay 1 is to determine if feedlot operators manage price risk and animal health risk as two separate and independent risks or if they manage them jointly. The animal health attribute of interest is purchasing feeder steers from a single known source versus an auction with unknown background. The output price risk mitigation tools are futures contracts, forward contracts, other, and accept cash price at time of sale. Primary data is collected using an online survey administered to feedlot operators. Participants are placed in forward looking, decision making scenarios utilizing a split-sample block design. Evidence of a relationship between animal health risk and output price risk management is mixed. Ricardian rent theory (RRT) is tested in Essay 2 to determine if complete pass-through occurs from fed cattle and corn prices to feeder cattle prices. Monthly price data from December 1995 to December 2016 is used. Based on RRT, surplus rents should pass through the market to the holder of the scarcest resource. In cattle markets, feeder calves are the scarcest, widely traded resource and thus gains and losses at the feedlot theoretically pass-through to feeder cattle prices. The hypothesized pass-through rates suggested by RRT is calculated using monthly production data from the Focus on Feedlots data series. The regression pass-through estimates are tested against the hypothesized RRT pass-through. In many models, the estimated pass-through rate is statistically greater than the RRT hypothesized pass-through rate. Thus, when fed cattle or corn prices change, these changes are more than fully passed to cow-calf producers through the feeder cattle price. Evidence is found of asymmetric pass-through during times of herd expansion versus contraction. Essay 3 provides a quantification of how changes in retail and export beef demand are transmitted to different members of the beef industry. Understanding how information is transmitted from primary consumer demand through the supply chain is key for long-term prosperity of the U.S. cattle industry. However, empirical applications quantifying how demand signals are transmitted through vertically connected industries are limited. Using both naïve and forward looking price expectations, a four equation system of inverse demand and supply equations for live and feeder cattle is estimated. Using retail and export beef demand indices, the impacts of 1% change in retail or export demand on live cattle and feeder cattle prices are quantified.

Purpose - this study is aimed at to investigating the effects exchange rate and other variables on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have on the Namibian economy. Methodology -The model comprises of the unit root test, the co-integration test, the long run equation co-efficient, an error correction model, the normality test and the stability test, were employed to estimate and interpret the results. Finding and recommendations - The results of the study have revealed that a relationship exists between exchange rate and FDI. However, this relationship is said to be statistically insignificant. It cannot therefore be used as a tool to influence FDI in Namibia. The results further indicated that GDP and trade openness were the most significant determinants of FDI in Namibia. The recommendations of this study thus suggest that the government should implement policies to diversify its production across all sectors and increase the manufacturing of finished goods, so as to enhance the GDP growth. Namibia should further advance its trade open through in-creased and fast-tracked trade agreements at both bilateral and multilateral levels.

This thesis analyzes the incomplete exchange rate pass-through effect on Mongolian economy and its implication on monetary policy under foreign and domestic shocks. The analysis is carried out in a small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model proposed by Monacelli (2005), where incomplete exchange rate pass-through is introduced via nominal rigidities on import prices. In order to accomplish the goal, we firstly derive the solutions of the model, calibrate the parameters, and finally simulate the impulse responses. Moreover, SVAR estimation is achieved to estimate the pass-through. Four main results are obtained. First, the exchange rate pass-through into import price and inflation is 0.69% and 0.49% respectively in short run, implying incomplete pass-through in Mongolia. Second, the exchange rate acts as a shock absorber for domestic productivity and foreign demand shock, but as a shock amplifier for domestic demand shock. Third, in case of incomplete pass-through the central bank of Mongolia is required to adjust the nominal interest rate more under the productivity shock, but less for the domestic and foreign demand shock. Finally, deviations from the law of one price contributes considerably to the variability of the output gap under the low pass-through. Therefore, considering incomplete pass-through in...

TESIS PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE MAGISTER EN ANÁLISIS ECONÓMICO / En los últimos quince años, tanto las autoridades de libre competencia como la literatura han entregado una mayor importancia a la incorporación del pass-through en los casos de colusión. En la estimación de pass-through, varios artículos han expuesto diferentes sesgos a los que se incurre si ésta se estima de forma reducida (estimación más común en la literatura para el pass-through). Esta tesis busca reafirmar la importancia de incluir las estimaciones de pass-through con motivo de estimar los perjuicios en colusión e inspeccionar parte de los sesgos que ocasiona la estimación en forma reducida. En específico, se revisa estos sesgos en un caso aplicado en Chile, investigando en profundidad asimetrías en la estimación de pass-through. Las contribuciones de la investigación se basan en primer lugar, en aportar a la discusión del país sobre un tema que no es analizado localmente. El segundo aporte se basa en observar asimetrías de pass-through en las respuestas de los competidores gracias a un shock heterogéneo en los costos marginales. Para evaluar lo anterior, se utilizan técnicas comúnmente utilizadas en la organización industrial empírica, esto es: estimar la demanda en el mercado final, recuperar los costos marginales y, realizar diferentes contrafactuales suponiendo variados shocks. Los resultados permiten identificar que el efecto pass-through es relevante para evaluar los perjuicios en colusión y, que existe gran heterogeneidad en las respuestas que causa un shock en los costos. El resultado más importante muestra que si hay un shock en costos específico para una marca, solamente los productos con mayor sustitución cambian sus precios finales en la misma dirección que lo realiza la marca afectada, mientras que los productos que no son sustitutos cercanos mantienen sus precios. La heterogeneidad de los shocks y de las respuestas no puede capturarse con estimaciones de forma reducida, esto provoca que los perjuicios estimados, en la mayoría de los casos, se alejen de los reales.

Cette thèse met en évidence l’aspect macroéconomique du degré de report du taux de change sur les prix dans la zone euro. Nous utilisons un large éventail de méthodes économétriques récentes afin de fournir des mesures robustes sur la transmission du taux change ainsi que sur ses déterminants macroéconomiques. Notre recherche révèle le rôle prépondérant des facteurs macroéconomiques dans le déclin récent du degré de report. Une conséquence directe de ce résultat est que la baisse du taux de transmission du change n’est pas nécessairement un phénomène structurel, et il peut être ainsi résolu par des politiques macroéconomiques conjoncturelles. Par exemple, l’adoption de régimes de politique monétaire plus crédibles avec l’engagement de maintenir une inflation faible joue un rôle important dans la réduction de la sensibilité des prix aux variations du change. Ceci est particulièrement valable pour les pays dont les politiques macroéconomiques sont historiquement laxistes. Ainsi, la poursuite de politiques économiques solide et lisible au sein de l’UEM peut être un outil efficace pour réduire le degré de report du taux de change / This thesis highlights the macroeconomic aspect of the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in the euro area countries. We use a wide range of up-to-date econometric methods in order to provide robust measures of the rate of pass-through as well as to shed further light on its macro determinants. The main finding of our research is the prominent role of macroeconomic forces in driving the recent declin of the transmission of currency movements. A direct consequence of this result is that the lowering in the rate of pass-through is not necessarily a structural phenomenon and it may be solved via macroeconomic policies. For instance, the shift to a more stable monetary policy conditions with credible and anti-inflationary regime would reduce the sensibility of prices to exchange rate changes. This is especially true for countries with historically poor macroeconomic policies. Thus, a better macroeconomic management with a sounder set of policies within the EMU may be an effective tool for reducing the degree of pass-through

In the beginning of 1990s Sweden implemented several measures in order to maintain price stability. These measures have resulted in an environment in which inflation is lower and more stable. The same development could be seen in other OECD countries. At the same time a decrease in exchange rate pass-through was noticed in many countries. This has led researchers to believe that there may be a connection, between these two phenomena. This dissertation analyzes whether there has been any change in exchange rate pass-through for manufacturing products in Sweden between the high inflation period (1977-1993) and the low inflation period (1994-2006). The result shows that there is a difference in the exchange rate pass-through between the two periods. During the low inflation period the degree of pass-through was lower than during the high inflation period.

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A warfighter's situation awareness is vital to their survival and lethality on the battlefield. Situation awareness, achieved through audition, allows the warfighter to quickly and accurately locate the position of fellow warfighters and potential threats. However, hearing loss, acoustic trauma, or the use of hearing protection can diminish this vital ability to locate sounds in the environment accurately. The introduction of electronically modulated hearing protection and enhancement devices (HPED) is an attempt to improve auditory situation awareness for the warfighter. Currently, however, there are no auditory fitness-for-duty measures that allow an warfighter, commander, or medical personnel to assess localization performance in the open-ear or with hearing protection. Such an assessment is important for pre-placement of a warfighter into a hearing critical job and also as a readiness metric prior-to and during a deployment. The ability to measure performance with a hearing protector will also assist warfighters in selecting protection that will afford maximum performance. This study examined a set of auditory fitness for duty (AFFD) test/stimulus combinations designed to quantify horizontal localization performance. Three listening conditions were used throughout the study; they included an open-ear condition as well as in-the- ear HPED and over-the-ear HPED. The Peltor Com-Tac IITM was used as the over-the- ear HPED and the Etymotic EB15 BlastPLGTM was used as the in-the-ear HPED. Stimuli consisted of filtered pink-noise that differed in both duration and frequency. Frequencies ranged from 500-1000 Hz (low) and 3000-6000 Hz (high) and durations included 300 ms (short) and 3 seconds (long). Stimuli were presented at 60 and 70 dB SPL. AFFD measures were specifically designed to measure current performance or to predict performance after training. Measures of current performance include an accuracy test measured in four quadrants (Left-Front, Right-Front, Left-Rear, and Right- Rear) and a front-back confusion test (FBCT). Accuracy within each quadrant was reduced to a mean absolute error, in degrees, for stimuli presented at 30 deg and 60 deg from the medial plane. FBCT consisted of a percent correct for stimuli presented at 0 deg and 180deg. Measures of post-training performance include an inter-aural cues test and a front-back difference test FBDT. The IACT and FBDT required participants to identify if two sequential stimuli were presented from the same or different locations. The IACT was tested in the left-front and right-front quadrants (for stimuli at 30 deg and 60 deg) and the FBCT was tested with stimuli at 0 deg and 180 deg These tests also provided a percent. Results show that the high-frequency long-duration (H-Long) stimuli predicted current localization performance well, for all listening conditions. Other AFFD test/stimulus combinations were also found to predict performance for a given listening condition, but not for all conditions. AFFD measures designed to predict post-training performance did not show any AFFD test/stimuli combinations that worked for all listening conditions. There were some combinations that worked for a given listening condition but not all conditions. A further analysis of the data showed that the limited number and types of HPEDs used may have confounded these results. Passive hearing protectors as well as HPEDs are known to disturb the spectral and temporal auditory cues that allow for accurate localization. While these cues are disturbed they are often still present in the signal heard by the listener. With training/use of a hearing protector, auditory learning may occur that allows these cues to be used again to accurately locate a sound source. Auditory learning was assessed by providing HPED training/use to novice hearing protection users. Pre and post-training testing was performed with the open-ear, in-the-ear HPED, and over-the-ear HPED. Training was provided for only one type of HPED. Results indicate that auditory learning occurred for the training HPED only. There was no crossover of auditory learning to the non-training protector. Other measures of auditory learning included a subjective confidence rating of the HPED and a measure of response time for the localization task. Results showed that confidence increased for the HPED that was used in training. However, no changes in response time were found for any listening condition. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that AFFD measures continue to be developed for implementation as pre-placement, HPED selection, return-to-duty, and readiness metrics for U.S. military personnel. It is also recommended that objective and subjective measures of hearing protection performance consider the effect of auditory learning. The rating or ranking of HPEDs by novice users of such a device, without adequate training/use to allow for auditory learning, should be weighed carefully. / Ph. D.

Thesis (Doctoral)--Vallendar, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (p. [93]-97).