Esta pesquisa investiga o comportamento não-linear do pass-through de taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira, durante o período de câmbio flutuante (2000-2015), a partir de um modelo de equilíbrio geral dinâmico estocástico com mudança de regime Markoviana (MS-DSGE). Para isso, utilizamos a metodologia proposta por Baele et al. (2015) e um modelo Novo-Keynesiano básico, sobre o qual incluímos novos elementos na curva de oferta agregada e uma nova equação para a dinâmica cambial. Encontramos evidências de existência de dois regimes distintos para o repasse cambial e para a variância dos choques sobre a inflação. No regime denominado de “Normal”, o pass-through de longo prazo é estimado em 0.0092 pontos percentuais para inflação, dado um choque cambial de 1%, contra 0.1302 pontos percentuais no regime de “Crise”. A superioridade do modelo MS-DSGE sobre o modelo com parâmetros fixos é constatada de acordo com diversos critérios comparativos. / This research investigates the non-linearity of exchange rate pass-through on the Brazilian economy during the floating exchange rate period (2000-2015) in a Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework (MS-DSGE). We apply methods proposed by Baele et al. (2015) in a basic New Keynesian model, with the addition of new elements to the aggregate supply curve and a new equation for the exchange rate dynamics. We find evidence of two distinct regimes for the exchange rate pass-through and for the volatility of shocks to inflation. During the regime named “Normal”, the long run pass-through is estimated as 0.0092 percent points to inflation, given a 1% exchange rate shock, in contrast to 0.1302 percent points during the “Crisis” regime. The MS-DSGE model appears superior to the fixed parameters model according to various comparison criteria.

Introduction of emission trading scheme of tradable permits become a great phenomena among energy business agents. Each emitter of CO2 is granted or allocated definite amount of tradable permitts. These allow him to produce one tonne of CO2 or to sell them on the spot or forvard market. Since these tradable permits became valuable (behave as a commercial instrument) they carry two possible usage. To be consumed when producing MWh of energy of to be sold on the market. These alternative usage are according to economy theory opportunity costs, therefore should be considered as the implicit costs and implemented into the price setting. When operating on competitive market, this cost increase should be fully passed on to the price. In this paper we analyze this pass-through of the permits costs. By using regression analysis we try to estimate the pass-through rate of the permits costs in power energy market. We analyze the spot and futures market in the Czech Republic (PXE) and in Germany (EEX). Estimated pass through rate ranges between 0,65 and 1,2. The results emphasize that the energy market is quite competitive, because the costs are more or less fully passed on consumers. One interesting feature arose from results. The pass-through rate greater than one is sort of economically counter-intuitive and should be studied in more detail in some future work.

Cette thèse analyse les effets redistributifs du salaire minimum. Le premier chapitre montre que l’introduction du salaire minimum en 1967 dans un certain nombre de secteurs de l’économie qui en étaient exclus jusqu’alors peut expliquer plus de 20% de la réduction des inégalités entre Blancs et Noir-Américains dans les années 1960 et le début des années 1970 aux États-Unis – la seule période (depuis la seconde guerre mondiale) au cours de laquelle les inégalités raciales sur le marché du travail ont diminué. Cette réforme a eu un rôle aussi déterminant dans l’évolution des inégalités raciales que l’augmentation du nombre d’années d’études pour les Noir-Américains ou les lois contre la discrimination. Le deuxième chapitre de cette thèse est consacré à l’estimation de la transmission des augmentations de salaire minimum dans les prix des produits vendus dans les supermarchés américains.Une augmentation moyenne de 10% du salaire minimum se traduit par une augmentation de 0.2% dans les prix des supermarchés entre 2001 et 2012. Cette elasticité-prix est cohérente avec une tranmission de l’intégralité de l’augmentation des coûts du travail dans les prix de vente aux consommateurs. L’augmentation des prix des supermarchés réduit les gains de revenu nominaux liés à l’augmentation du salaire minimum entre de 3 à 12%, selon le niveau de revenu du ménage. Le troisième chapitre calibre un modèle du marché du travail qui permet de simuler les effets d’une augmentation du salaire minimum au niveau fédéral à $15 d’ici 2024 aux États-Unis. Il s’agit de comparer les niveaux d’emploi obtenus si la réforme est adoptée aux niveaux d’emploi obtenu si la réforme n’est pas adoptée, et ce, selon les valeurs d’une série d’élasticités bien identifiées. / This dissertation studies the redistributive effects of minimum wage policies. The first chapter provides the first causal evidence of how the minimum wage has affected the historical evolution of racial inequality in the United States. It shows that the extension of the federal minimum wage to new sectors of the economy in 1967 can explain more than 20% of the decline in the racial earnings gap observed during the Civil Rights Era -- the only period of time (post World-War II) during which racial inequality fell in the United States. This effect is as large as previously studied policies and economic factors, such as the improvement in schooling for African-Americans or federal anti-discrimination policies. The second chapter estimates the pass-through of minimum wage increases into prices of US grocery stores, using high-frequency scanner level data. A 10% minimum wage hike translates into a 0.2% increase in grocery prices between 2001 and 2012. This magnitude is consistent with a full pass-through of cost increases into consumer prices. Depending on household income, grocery price increases offset between 3 and 12% of the nominal income gains. The third chapter estimates a calibrated labor market model to analyze the likely effects of a $15 federal minimum wage by 2024. It compares employment numbers if the policy were adopted to employment numbers if the policy had not been adopted using a wide range of well-identified elasticities.

Previous research suggests that a policy interest rate cut below the reversal interest rate reverses the intended effect of monetary policy and becomes contractionary for lending. This paper is an empirical investigation into whether the reversal interest rate was breached in the Swedish negative interest rate environment between February 2015 and July 2016. We find that banks with a greater reliance on deposit funding were adversely affected by the negative interest rate environment, relative to other banks. This is because deposit rates are constrained by a zero lower bound, since banks are reluctant to introduce negative deposit rates for fear of deposit withdrawals. We show with a difference-in-differences approach that the most affected banks reduced loans to households and raised 5 year mortgage lending rates, as compared to the less affected banks, in the negative interest rate environment. These banks also experienced a drop in profitability, suggesting that the zero lower bound on deposits caused the lending spread of banks to be squeezed. However, we do not find evidence that the reversal rate has been breached. / Tidigare forskning menar att en sänkning av styrräntan under brytpunktsräntan gör att penningpolitiken får motsatt effekt och blir åtstramande för utlåning. Denna rapport är en empirisk studie av huruvida brytpunktsräntan passerades i det negativa ränteläget mellan februari 2015 och juli 2016 i Sverige. Våra resultat pekar på att banker vars finansiering till större del bestod av inlåning påverkades negativt av den negativa styrräntan, relativt till andra banker. Detta beror på att inlåningsräntor är begränsade av en lägre nedre gräns på noll procent. Banker är ovilliga att introducera negativa inlåningsräntor för att undvika att kunder tar ut sina insättningar och håller kontanter istället. Vi visar med en "difference-in-differences"-analys att de mest påverkade bankerna minskade lån till hushåll och höjde bolåneräntor med 5-åriga löptider, relativt till mindre påverkade banker, som konsekvens av den negativa styrräntan. Dessa banker upplevde även en minskning av lönsamhet, vilket indikerar att noll som en nedre gräns på inlåningsräntor bidrog till att bankernas räntemarginaler minskade. Vi hittar dock inga bevis på att brytpunktsräntan har passerats.

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We investigate the practical use of Taylor-type rules in Trinidad and Tobago, which is in the process of implementing market based monetary policy and seeks to implement flexible inflation targeting in the presence of a managed exchange rate. This is motivated by the idea that normative Taylor rules can be shaped by the practical experience of developing countries. We find that the inflation – exchange rate nexus is strong, hence the country may be unwilling to allow the exchange rate to float freely. We contend that despite weak market development the Taylor rule can still be applied as the central bank is able to use moral suasion to achieve full pass through of the policy rate to the market rate. Our evidence rejects Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) argument that the optimal monetary policy rule for the open economy is isomorphic for a closed economy. Rather, our evidence suggests that the rule for the open economy allows for lower variability when the rule is augmented by the real exchange rate as in Taylor (2001). We also reject Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) hypothesis that domestic inflation is optimal for inclusion in the Taylor-type rule. Instead we find that core CPI inflation leads to lower variability. Additionally, our evidence suggests that the monetary rule, when applied to Trinidad and Tobago, is accommodating to the US Federal Reserve rate. Further, we expand the work of Martin and Milas (2010) which considered the pass through of the policy rate to the interbank rate in the presence of risk and liquidity. By extending the transmission to the market lending rate, we are able to go beyond those disruptive factors by considering excess liquidity and spillovers of international economic disturbances. We found that these shocks are significant for Trinidad and Tobago, but it is not significant enough to disrupt the pass through. As a result, full pass through was robust to the presence of these disruptive factors.

近年來，由於國際化的開展，國際貿易愈來愈普及，匯率因此扮演一個重要的角色。貶值固然可以提高一國的出口競爭力，卻可能造成通貨膨脹而不利本國消費，激烈的匯率波動更會造成兩國間貿易的不確定性。因此，各國中央銀行為了穩定外匯市場及商品市場，並為了追求低而穩定的通貨膨脹率而干預匯率波動。依據Devereux and Engle (2003)，跨國廠商在訂貿易財價格時可採生產者貨幣訂價法（producer-currency pricing, PCP）或當地貨幣訂價法（local-currency pricing, LCP），在此兩種訂價方式下，匯率的轉嫁程度會有所不同，此亦可能會改變貨幣政策的總體經濟效果。 本文在一小型開放的動態隨機一般均衡模型（DSGE）下，加入央行的資產負債表與貨幣政策法則，探討當外生衝擊發生時，在不同的匯率轉嫁程度下，央行採取彈性匯率或管理浮動匯率對總體經濟變數產生的影響。 / With the development of the global economy, the international trade has become more common. When the country trades with other countries, exchange rate plays an important role. The currency depreciation may generate the current account surplus, but may lead to higher inflation and hurt the domestic consumption. Drastic exchange rate fluctuations may result in the uncertainty in trades. As the result, central banks may intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize exchange rate movements. Devereux and Engle (2003) build up the two-country DSGE model to examine macroeconomic effects of monetary policy under different degree of exchange rate pass-through. They consider two cases: producer-currency-pricing (PCP) where the exchange rate pass-through is complete and expenditure-switching effect exists, and local-currency-pricing (LCP) where the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete and there is no expenditure-switching effect. In the paper, we follow the small-open-economy DSGE model in Kollmann (2002) by including the balance sheet and alternative monetary policy rules of the monetary policy to examine the different macroeconomic effects under different degrees of exchange rate pass-through.

In this thesis, we examine the exchange rate pass-through phenomenon in the Czech Re- public over 1998:1-2014:1 period. As our vector autoregression results indicate, short-term pass-through effect slowed down and prolongated its duration substantially. Consequently, the accumulated value to be transmitted increased compared to previous findings. In the case of exchange rate pass-through effect to CPI, the accumulated response after 18 months accounts for about 40-60 per cent. In this regard, our time-varying results using unique Chebyshev Time Polynomials points to period 2008-2014 to be the leading cause. It seems that during macroeconomically less stable periods the exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic tends to increase. Even though the consensus on the pass-through lev- els and its development over time is rather scarce, we find support for our conclusions. More interestingly, having in mind November's currency interventions of the Czech Na- tional Bank to weaken koruna (and thus avoiding deflation), our results reveal that this measure has become much more effective in the latest years (as consequence of the crisis) than previous literature suggested. Following up on that, it seems that exchange rate regained some of its rather historical importance while conducting monetary policy...

台灣的經濟發展，仰賴對外貿易甚鉅。廠商如何因應匯率的變動，在國際競爭激烈的貿易市場中策略性的定價以取得優勢，一直是國際貿易與金融發展上重要的議題。因此，本論文包括三篇文章，依序透過台灣進口物價、出口物價，以及人造纖維梭織布的出口價格，探討匯率轉嫁與市場取價的相關議題。以下就每篇文章的重點摘要如下。 第一篇主要驗證「菜單成本」(menu costs) 存在，所產生之不對稱匯率轉嫁行為。由於菜單成本的存在，出口商必須在調價所產生的菜單成本，以及不調價對其市場競爭力的減損中，進行權衡取捨(trade-off)。我們首先透過模型推導，說明在此情況下，出口商唯有在匯率變動超過某一水準（門檻）時， 才會因應匯率變動進行調價。這意謂若匯率波動幅度較小時，出口商囿於菜單成本不會調整價格，進口國將面臨完全匯率轉嫁；而若匯率變動幅度夠大，出口商才會調整價格以維持其市場競爭力，而產生不完全匯率轉嫁。為驗證並說明此一不對稱匯率轉嫁現象，我們利用門檻迴歸模型(threshold regression model)進行台灣進口品是否有不對稱轉嫁之實證分析。結果顯示，以匯率變動幅度為門檻變數下，當匯率變動幅度小於門檻值3%時，匯率轉嫁程度高達58.7%;而匯率變動幅度高於門檻值3%時，則無顯著之匯率轉嫁。 我們因此認為菜單成本的存在，確實可能導致匯率不對稱轉嫁行為。 第二篇則應用門檻迴歸模型檢驗台灣出口物價是否因菜單成本導致在匯率變動幅度不同時，產生不同程度調整加成的出口定價行為，導致不對稱匯率轉嫁。 實證結果顯示，當匯率變動幅度低於門檻2.5%時，調整出口價格的幅度為27%。反之，當匯率變動幅度超過門檻值時，相較於前者，調價幅度增加至42%。經檢定兩者有顯著差異，證實有不對稱匯率轉嫁。上述不對稱匯率轉嫁的實證結果與理論預期並未完全相符。我們認為可能的原因在於出口商考量當期市佔率對未來利潤的潛在影響力，因此即使當期匯率變動幅度小，仍選擇微幅調價，藉以維持市場優勢與價格競爭力。亦即菜單成本可能並非影響其定價行為的關鍵因素。此外，廠商也有可能考量其在短期無法立即因應需求而擴張產能，因此即使匯率變動幅度小，仍選擇調價穩定進口價格，如此可避免因產能不足無法接單而流失客戶。再者，受限於資料的取得，我們採用總體出口物價資料，因此僅能呈現出平均的定價行為，而無法凸顯個別產業的出口定價行為。上述皆有可能是造成理論預期與實證結果不完全一致的原因。 為修正前兩篇使用總體資料的缺點，並進一步瞭解出口商因應匯率變動時是否依不同目標市場決定不同的調整加成幅度，在第三篇中本文使用人造纖維梭織布產業資料，主要探討在不完全競爭市場的結構下，出口商面對匯率變動時的「市場取價」行為。由於紡織業為台灣創匯產業，早期以出口胚布和成衣服飾品為主。到1980年代以後，逐漸地轉為以出口紗與成品布為主。在2005年全面取消全球紡織品配額後，紡織業的競爭更加激烈。儘管台灣有許多紡織廠外移至大陸及東南亞國家生產，使得台灣布料的出口額逐年減少。然而，台灣的人造纖維梭織布的出口單價卻有上升的趨勢。因此，本文主要探討台灣自1999年至2009年，人造纖維梭織布出口至美國、中國、香港及印尼等前四大出口目的國，因應匯率變動的出口定價行為是否具有市場取價的特性。此研究有助於我們瞭解產業競爭的過程與廠商的定價行為。實證結果顯示，台灣人纖梭織布的出口有市場取價的能力。對於出口至美國及香港的人纖梭織布，出口商會因應匯率等比例調整加成，自行吸收匯率變動對進口價格的影響，以穩定進口價格(即 local currency pricing stability)。對於出口至中國及印尼的人纖梭織布，則未有明顯的證據支持類似的調價行為。

本論文探討不同的物價環境對匯率轉嫁程度的影響。有別於既有文獻將通貨緊縮納入低通膨的區間一併討論，本論文特別區分通貨緊縮與低且正的通膨區間，估計不同物價環境下的匯率轉嫁效果。 利用門檻迴歸模型（threshold model）及台灣1981-2008年的資料，且區分能源價格及非能源價格，本文的實證結果顯示，通貨緊縮考慮與否將影響匯率轉嫁程度與通膨、通縮環境的關係。不同於既有文獻發現匯率轉嫁效果與通膨環境呈正相關，本文發現通貨緊縮環境下的匯率轉嫁效果會提高。此外，包含能源價格之匯率轉嫁效果隨物價環境變化的幅度較大，與既有文獻的看法一致。 因此，在匯率轉嫁效果與物價環境的分析上，明確區分通貨緊縮的情況有其必要性，否則可能形成偏誤之推論。 / This dissertation incorporates inflation and deflation in the analysis of exchange rate pass-through at different price levels. Because the existing literature generally consider deflation as part of low inflation, pass-through estimates tend to be considered the same for these two regimes. This study separates the effects of deflation and low positive inflation and estimates the pass-through for different price levels. This dissertation uses a nonlinear model with aggregate and disaggregate import prices data from 1981–2008 in Taiwan to first examine the pass-through for two regimes of high inflation and low inflation. The results confirm the notion in the literature that a positive relationship exists between pass-through and inflation. Then, this dissertation extends the model to a three-regime setting, including high inflation, low positive inflation, and deflation. When deflation is clearly defined in a three-regime model, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is found to be increasing in both high inflation and deflation. The positive relationship at all price levels is no longer valid while the effect of deflation is separated from that of low inflation. In Taiwan, the pass-through becomes inversely greater as the inflation rate falls into a deflationary regime. That the pass-through is higher in a deflationary regime became particularly obvious after the 1997 financial crisis. Contrary to the results predicted by the positive relationship, this analysis does not find an unlimited downward trend for the pass-through. A rebound occurs in the degree of pass-through once deflation is clearly identified, and this pattern is also found for half of the importing industries categorized using the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). In addition, the results are consistent with the notion that oil prices usually fluctuate much more than the prices of other imports. The estimates show that the pass-through changes the most for fuels and related materials. Obviously, fluctuations in the price of oil influence the measurement of the pass-through. The increase in the pass-through found in a deflationary regime becomes smaller when oil prices are excluded.