貨幣政策為中央銀行控制經濟情勢最主要的工具。1990年紐西蘭成為第一個採取釘住通貨膨脹率政策的國家，許多經濟學家開始認為釘住通貨膨脹率政策為最適當的貨幣政策。本論文利用Lin(2010)動態追蹤資料分量迴歸,分析釘住通貨膨脹率政策對通貨膨脹率，經濟成長，通貨膨脹率之波動和經濟成長之波動的影響。本論文以103個國家在1960-2010年的追蹤資料為例,實證結果發現，通貨膨脹率水準高的國家，釘住通貨膨脹率政策降低通貨膨脹率水準的效果愈強且顯著，而經濟成長高的國家則必須損失經濟成長作為代價，並且可以穩定通貨膨脹率和經濟成長之波動。此結果應證了Ball and Sheridan(2003)提到通貨膨脹率愈高的國家,降低愈多的通貨膨脹率水準。在考慮經濟成長和通貨膨長之抵換關係後，釘住通貨膨脹率政策在高通貨膨脹率的國家能夠有效降低通貨膨脹率水準。另外,在OECD國家和新興市場也得到類似的結論。

International trade theory emphasizes the "real"factors. In standard models of international trade surveyed by Jones and Neary (1984), factor supplies play a key role in determining trade patterns. The pattern as well as the volume of trade is usually explained by the defference in comparative advantages. Through trade, countries can exploit these advantages and make more efficient use of resources. The determination of exchange rates is seen as the resoult of monetary policies in different countries. The distinction between trade and finace has been mitigated due to an important paper by Stockman (1985) who integrate a transactionsbased model of money with a real trade model. He analyzed the effect of inflation on international trade using a cash-in-adcance(CIA) model. In his setup, inflation depresses capital accumulation because the rate of return on investment is reduced. This"factor-supply"effect will cause the volume of trade to change. Since Stockman used a Heckscher- Ohlin-Samuelson model, it also follows that a small change in the rate of inflation may cause a dramatic change in domestic production, hence, the pattern of trade might be reversed completely. In this dessertation I shall point out another channel of how inflation affects the trade pattern and volume. I shall study the "demand-substitution"effect due the fact that the cash-in-advance constraint is applied to different sets of goods. When this is so, the CIA constraint impliesa higher opportunity cost of purchasing the constrained goods. Thus, the relative costs of goods under constraint in terms of the goods not under constraint will be subject to the influence of inflation, this is what I mean by "demand-substitution" effect. This dissertation is organized as follows. In section II we will survey the related literature. In section III we describe the model and the five different CIA constraints case, analyze the effect of unanticipated, anticipated and temporary monetary policy. In every case, comparative static exercise are performed. In section IV we make comparison between the three cases, followed by concluding remarks and possible extensions.

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在有關通貨膨脹與房屋市場的文獻中，Sheffrin (1983)與Poterba (1984)利用部分均衡分析房屋市場，發現通貨膨脹會造成房價上漲，而且短期間房價有先漲後跌的過度調整的現象。為了彌補以上部分均衡分析的不足，我們引用Blanchard (1981)的一般均衡分析，將原本的股票市場修改成房屋市場，經濟體系可以區分為商品市場、貨幣市場與房屋市場。 接著延續通貨膨脹這個主題，我們試著以Blanchard (1981)一般均衡分析的架構來探討政府為預防通貨膨脹而採行緊縮性政策對房屋市場的影響。Gray and Turnovsky (1979)與Wilson (1976)曾使用宣示效果探討貨幣政策對匯率的動態調整，發現在可預期到恆久性貨幣擴張下，短期匯率會有過度調整。從我們模型中，在可預期到緊縮性貨幣政策下，短期房價有先跌後回升的過度調整；在可預期到緊縮性財政政策下，房價並沒有過度調整的現象，長期房價呈現持續上揚的走勢。雖然緊縮性貨幣政策與緊縮性財政政策皆可消除通貨膨脹，但對於房價走勢卻完全不同，其差異原因可能是緊縮性貨幣政策主要影響房屋需求面，人民由於貨幣供給減少降低房屋需求(財富效果)；同時因為房屋具有對抗通膨的保值效果，人民會趁房價下挫時逢低買進(替代效果)，所以房價短期會有先下挫後回升的過度調整。緊縮性財政政策雖也會造成產出減少使得消費能力下降，但由於公共基礎建設興建緩慢會減少建商蓋新屋的意願。因此，在房屋需求面無明顯變化下，而房屋供給出現下降的情況下，房價反倒是有持續上揚的跡象。

本文使用分量處理效果方法，分析通貨膨脹目標政策對通貨膨脹的影響。 依據Svensson (1997)與Orphanides and Wilcox (2002)的理論可知，當通貨膨脹低於目標區間時，通貨膨脹目標政策對通貨膨脹具有正向的效果；當通貨膨脹高於目標區間時，具有負向的效果；而當通貨膨脹位於目標區間時，效果微弱。本文利用1980年--2010年17個國家的年資料作實證分析。實證結果發現，通貨膨脹目標政策在不同分量的通貨膨脹下對通貨膨脹的影響有所不同。當通貨膨脹低的時候，通貨膨脹目標政策對通貨膨脹具有正向效果；然而，當通貨膨脹高的時候，具有負向效果，且隨著通貨膨脹的上升，負向效果有增強的趨勢。此結果與前述理論一致。 即使考慮刪去高通貨膨脹國家、將不同開發程度的國家分開討論、不同的資料期間和不同的政策開始時間，均得到類似的結果。

本文主要是透過 Google trends 網站提供的關鍵字搜尋量資料， 探討網路資料是否能夠提供通貨膨脹率的即時資訊。 透過美國消費者物價指數的組成細項作為依據，蒐集美國2004年1月至2015年12月的 Google trends 關鍵字變數，並藉由最小絕對壓縮挑選機制(Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator)、 彈性網絡(Elastic Net)以及主成分分析法(Principal component analysis)等等變數挑選機制，有效地整合大量的關鍵字資料。實證結果發現，透過適當變數挑選後的 Google trends 關鍵字變數確實可改善美國通貨膨脹率的即時預測表現，並為美國通貨膨脹率提供額外有效的資訊。此外，我們透過台灣的關鍵字資料檢驗，也確認Google trends 關鍵字資料可以幫助台灣通貨膨脹率的即時預測。

本論文各章節扼要說明如後： 第一章緒論，說明本文之研究動機、目的與方法，並對理性預期假說之特性及政策涵 義作一闡釋。第二章則設立一基本論模型，用以探討本文之主題，而後在第三章將此 基本模型予以擴充。融入更多的外生干擾變數探討個中關係；第四章則是汲取前章模 型的精神，更進一步加入差異性預期因素。利用變異數假說，探究在理性預期下，產 出與通貨膨脹替關係的政策運作。第五章則是援引前章一般化模型，利用臺灣與亞洲 相關國家的資料，應用隨機係數迴歸的計量技巧作一番驗證，俾收理論與實務配合之 效。

本文共一冊，約三萬餘字，可分為六章。 本文嘗試將Blinder （1980），Greeb & Laffont （1981）之廠商的個體存貨行為引 入Honkapohja(1979，1980)失衡模型內，以得出跟Honkapohja不同結果、本文發現存 貨緩衝將使廠商訴諸於物價之調整較慢。在通貨緊縮內，因廠商之銷售受到限制，故 存貨增加將影響其安定性與修正後之就業乘數。而在通貨膨脹區內，因生產部門在商 品市場不受限制，存貨將不再是一個重要的變數。 Honkapohja模型乃遵從：供需法則，與貨幣餘額之調整，故物價會比工資更富伸縮性 ；由此獲致在凱因斯失業將可能呈螺旋狀盤旋而趨於通貨緊縮均衡。當工資與物價僵 硬性持續若干期時，則通貨緊縮均衡內修正後之就業乘數將大於短期乘數；但若工資 與物價能充分調整，則二者修正後之就乘數皆不確定。 而在本文中，由於考慮貨幣派預期與存貨存量，故反使物價調整比工資調整僵硬；由 此獲致在通貨緊縮均衡下不易確定其安定性，而在通貨膨脹均衡下，則必為安定，且 兩者皆可能呈螺旋狀盤旋。當工資與物價固定並持續若干期時，則在通貨緊縮區內修 正後之就業乘數可正可負，須視所得消費傾向大小而定；而在通貨膨脹區內修正後之 就業乘數則等於其短期乘數。若工資與物價皆具伸縮性，則凱因斯之修正後就業乘數 將大於短期乘數；而壓抑性通貨膨脹之修正後就業乘數可正可負。 由上可知，存貨緩衝將緩和物價調整速度，使Honkapohja模型內之通貨緊縮均衡未必 安定，而通貨膨脹均衡必為安定；在工資與物價僵硬性持續若干期時，亦使Honkapoh ja的修正後需求乘數可正可負，須視所得邊際消費傾向大小而定；在工資與物價能充 分調整下，將使 Honkapohja 的修正後需求乘數大於短期乘數，但修正後之供給乘數 為正或負。 因此，本文應有其比較對照之參考價值。

新興市場的崛起，是二十一世紀經濟發展的重要趨勢。在這一波新興國家熱潮中，越南總是不斷地成為大家的焦點。本文分析整理越南近二十年經濟發展歷程，發現其在經濟快速成長下獲致不凡的成就，但却隱含著：（一）基礎建設落後，（二）出口雖持續成長但貿易赤字卻擴大，（三）外匯存底不足且熱錢充斥，（四）通貨膨脹嚴重等四大難題。 越南在證券市場方面成長快速，證券市場規模佔GDP比重由2000年的不到1％，成長至2007年的40％，然因市場規模小，容易產生流動性風險 ，股價易暴漲暴跌，2006年股價漲幅世界第一，2008年至今股價跌幅也是世界第一。越南對外資採相當開放的態度，積極鼓勵外資直接投資或間接投資越南。在證券市場方面，其對外國投資人之開放程度亦較一般新興國家高，允許外資法人及自然人直接參與股市投資。外資一般認為越南為一低度開發的處女地，擁有豐富的天然資源，以及年輕的勞動人口，政治情勢安定，加上中產階級勢力的抬頭，對其長期經濟展望看法樂觀，但近期對越南居高不下的通貨膨脹率深感憂慮。 本研究並比較分析中國經濟改革及證券發展歷程，發現越南目前遭遇的困境，與1993年前後中國證券市場之經濟泡沫如出一轍，以中國之經驗來看，若越南能持續於金融、匯率及國企之改革，相信必能擺脫此一窘境，重回穩定成長的康莊大道。 關鍵字:越南、外資、貿易逆差、通貨膨脹、證券市場 / The rising up of the emerging markets is an important trend in the developing of economy during this century. In the up surging wave of the emerging markets, Vietnam unceasingly be the cynosure of all eyes . This article organized and analyzed the track of the economic development in Vietnam. Discovered that although it obtained an uncommon achievement under the economical fast growth, Vietnam still encounters four tough issues. (1)infrastructure backwardness, (2)although exportation continues to grow but the trade deficit actually to expand, (3)insufficiency of the foreign reserve and the hot money floods, (4)serious inflation. The stock market in Vietnam grows very fast, the stock market value accounts for the GDP proportion from under 1% in 2000, grows to over 40% at the end of 2007. However since the market scale is so small, it is easy to have the liquidity problem. The stock price is apt to rise and fall suddenly. It ranked world first in the buoyancy of 2006, It also ranked world No 1 in the downturn of 2008. Vietnam takes an open manner to the foreign capital, it positively encourages the foreign capital to invest in Vietnam. It is also more open up in the stock market comparatively to the other emerging countries, it permits foreign investors to participate directly in the stock market. From the foreign investor's point of view, Vietnam is reputed to be a lowly developed country, be abundant in natural resources as well as young working population, with relatively stable political circumstance in addition to the gaining ground middle class. So it is optimistic to its long-term perspective. But there is deeply anxious about the inflation rate in Vietnam which still stays at a high level recently. This article also compare and analyze the economy reform and the securities development course of China. It is found that the morass which Vietnam is swamped is very similar to the economic froth occurred in China during 1993. According to the experience in China, it will be able to get rid of this predicament and return to the wide free road of growth if Vietnam can continue to the finance, the exchange rate and the state-owned enterprise reform. Keywords: Vietnam, Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Portfolio Investment, Trade deficit , Inflation, Securities

This study investigates the effects of an anticipated inflation targeting in a small open economy based on the framework of Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006) with cash-in-advance constraints. It is shown that the steady-state effects of a permanent increase in the inflation rate on capital accumulation, labor and current account are consistent with the results in Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006). However, there is an ambiguous change in consumption depending on the relationship between consumption and labor in the utility function. If consumption and labor is with a large degree of substitution, consumption may rise. Moreover, there is an impact decrease in the shadow price of investment when the policy of targeting a higher inflation rate announces, and the degree of such decrease is inversely related to the time length between the announcement and the realization of policy. Prior to the execution of the policy, the capital stock decumulates and the current account may go through a deficit or surplus first and then deficit along the unstable trajectories depending on the relative impact between the change in the shadow price of investment and the shadow price of assets on the locus where the current account maintains in equilibrium. After the implementation of a higher inflation targeting policy, the capital stock continues to decumulate and the current account accumulates along the stable paths toward the new equilibrium. In addition, the relationship between consumption and labor also influences the dynamic movements of the shadow price of investment.