Taiwan is usually considered as a small open economy. Trade and exchange rate policies in Taiwan have substantially changed since the mid-1980s. Not only has trade been liberalized, but exchange rates of the New Taiwan Dollar(NTD) were also allowed to fluctuate. This paper applies the Threshold Regression Model that puted forward of Cancer and Hansen (2004) and combines the expectation-augmented Phillips curve with a threshold for the pass-through. The paper examines whether the short-run magnitude of the pass-through is affected by the business cycle, direction and magnitude of the exchange rate change. For that purpose, two variables are tested as thresholds: (1)output gap, (2)exchange rate change. The results indicate that the short-run pass-through is higher when the economy is booming, as well as the exchange rate depreciates above some threshold. And they have important implications for monetary policy and are possibly related to pricing-to-market behavior and menu costs of price a djustment.

In this paper, we have employed the Kourtellos et al. (2007) threshold model to examine the relationship between inflation and relative price variability in Hong Kong, Argentina, Germany, Japan, Mexico and Philippines. Empirical results from Hong Kong, Japan and Mexico show that inflation are endogenous variables, and the relationship between these two variables appears to be a V shape for Hong Kong and Japan. However, the relationship appears to be positive for Mexico. Empirical results fail to reject the hypothesis of exogenous inflation for Argentina, Germany and Philippines, and the relationship between these two variables appears to be a V shape for Philippines and Argentina. There is no significant relationship between these two variables for Germany.

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The International Monetary Fund points out that four kinds of financial crisis in the world financial markets currency crisis, external debt crisis, bank crisis and systematic crisis . Taiwan could be happened in bank crisis and could have potentially impaired the economies of Taiwan. That was reason why Government protected banking industry avoiding collapse and bankruptcy. This paper details why Private Equity Fund M&A Taiwan domestic bank and the effects on financial markets. Since 2006 Carlyle Group one of a global private equity investment firm takeover bid for Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc (¤é¤ë¥ú¥b¾ÉÅé)--the world's top chip packager for US$5.45 billion- Private Equity Firm had known for Taiwan financial markets. The Government refused the plan due to that takeover bid may weakening the local capital market and leading to an outflow of investment into China. Foreign investment in Taiwan's banking industry is not new, but the acquisition of domestic banks has only become available to Private Equity Fund recently. The domestic banking industry has become a lucrative target for foreign investors not only of the Government has a policy of limiting the quantity of banking branches but also lower P/B in Asia region. Since 1997s, a striking feature in the development of Taiwan banking industry structure is the significant decline in the performance of banks while the steadily increase in the number of bank branches and caused by overbanking in Taiwan. As Taiwan slowly opens its banking industry after second round banking reformation in 2001, global M&A trends also had impacts on Taiwan, foreign financial institutions are increasingly looking to make strategic and financial investments. This paper gives a brief description of the development in the past 10 years, analyzes the driving forces on the merger of financial institutions From this research, we could come to the conclusions as follows: 1. A financial investment in domestic banks is a win-win for the various parties Private equity fund M&A of domestic commercial banks not only a very good source of capital in Taiwan, but also, through the competition of foreign banks, stimulates domestic financial institutions to upgrade operational skills and management, and improve operational efficiency and competitiveness, thus contributing to the upgrading of the financial system. 2. This paper using threshold regression model to find an adequate branch numbers of Commercial Banks industry in Taiwan. We found significant evidence good for the shareholders equity only when the branch numbers are larger than 88. 3. On the view of bank branch, the next target acquired company is Far Eastern International Bank(35 branches) ,Jih Sun Bank(36 branches) , King¡¥s Town Bank(62 branches) ,Taichung Commercial Bank(78 branches).ABN AMRO Bank(Taiwan)M&A Taitung Business Bank, the branches from 5 to 37, not to meet the bank's need for scale economics in Taiwan markets and should be M&A again 4. Private Equity Fund aims to pursue long term total return primarily through investment in equities and equity-related securities but had unique niche in resolving banking risk and corporate governance. also capitalized on the recovery of financial markets after the financial crisis in Taiwan banking indusdry According to experience of Private-Equity Firm to merge to banking industry in Korea Private Equity Fund exit their investments at last within 5-7 years after turned the bank successfully around 5. It's difference type of entering the Taiwan market through the acquisitions of banks, one is strategic investment (e.g.,Citigroup and Standard Chartered) and financial players (e.g., Newbridge Capital, The Carlyle Group).Strategic investment made a goal to construct a plateform to link Taiwan and China

Several reports research the best prediction power of the credit risk models for different industries. The structural models use firm¡¦s information for firms¡¦ structural variables, such as asset value and asset volatility, to determine the time of default, but it suffer from some drawbacks, which represent the main reasons behind their relatively poor empirical performance. It require estimates for the parameters of the firm¡¦s asset value, which is nonobservable. Moody's KMV model is well known and useful among them, but it ignores recovery rate and difference in financial structure and industry. The reduced-form models fundamentally differ from typical structural models in the degree of predictability of the default. Reduced-form models use market data and assume the probability of default is exogenously generated. However, the basel committee for banking supervision proposed that risk is endogenous. The purpose of this paper is using quantile and threshold regression to introduce a new approach which is based on the Moody¡¦s KMV model, the Lu and Kuo ( 2005) and the Altman, Brooks Brady, Resti and Sironi (2005) to the evaluation of the endogenous probability of default and the endogenous recovery rate.

Housing investment plays a vital role in the real estate market. Although the housing investment has been extensively investigated, the application of Tobin¡¦s Q theory is relatively minor. Hence, the purpose of this study is to apply Tobin¡¦s Q theory to analyze housing investment, using quarterly data for Taipei City from 1973 Q2 to 2010 Q4. The Q ratio numerator is the pre-sale housing price and the denominator represents the value of the rent. The empirical model is estimated by using building permits and use permits as measures of housing investment. Moreover, because the housing market is imperfect, this study applies the threshold regression model to test whether different effects exist in the Q ratio. Finally, this study also compares housing investment in five cities. In conclusion, these findings imply that the Q ratio has a positive relationship with housing investment, as well as a threshold effect. Furthermore, the local housing investments are affected differently by local variables.

Previous researches find that advertising expenditure and performance can significantly influence fund flows. With a unique data from Securities Investment Trust and Consulting Association (SITCA) of Taiwan, we can use monthly data of exact purchasing amounts, redemption amounts and advertising expenditures to gain more insight into investors¡¦ investment behavior. We examine the impact of advertising on mutual fund investors¡¦ behavior and the performance-flow relationship. This paper differs from the existing literature, which only concerned with the average advertising effect on fund flow. We follow the procedure of Tsay (1989) time series autoregressive processes model and modify it to cross-section variables threshold model to examine whether threshold effect of advertising on fund flows exists. We generate four empirical results. (1) Performance is significantly associated with higher fund flows. (2) Advertising is significantly associated with higher fund flows. (3) Disposition effect exists in Taiwanese mutual fund market and advertising expenditure can partially enhance the disposition effect. (4) We also measure the threshold effect of advertising on fund flows.

台灣的經濟發展，仰賴對外貿易甚鉅。廠商如何因應匯率的變動，在國際競爭激烈的貿易市場中策略性的定價以取得優勢，一直是國際貿易與金融發展上重要的議題。因此，本論文包括三篇文章，依序透過台灣進口物價、出口物價，以及人造纖維梭織布的出口價格，探討匯率轉嫁與市場取價的相關議題。以下就每篇文章的重點摘要如下。 第一篇主要驗證「菜單成本」(menu costs) 存在，所產生之不對稱匯率轉嫁行為。由於菜單成本的存在，出口商必須在調價所產生的菜單成本，以及不調價對其市場競爭力的減損中，進行權衡取捨(trade-off)。我們首先透過模型推導，說明在此情況下，出口商唯有在匯率變動超過某一水準（門檻）時， 才會因應匯率變動進行調價。這意謂若匯率波動幅度較小時，出口商囿於菜單成本不會調整價格，進口國將面臨完全匯率轉嫁；而若匯率變動幅度夠大，出口商才會調整價格以維持其市場競爭力，而產生不完全匯率轉嫁。為驗證並說明此一不對稱匯率轉嫁現象，我們利用門檻迴歸模型(threshold regression model)進行台灣進口品是否有不對稱轉嫁之實證分析。結果顯示，以匯率變動幅度為門檻變數下，當匯率變動幅度小於門檻值3%時，匯率轉嫁程度高達58.7%;而匯率變動幅度高於門檻值3%時，則無顯著之匯率轉嫁。 我們因此認為菜單成本的存在，確實可能導致匯率不對稱轉嫁行為。 第二篇則應用門檻迴歸模型檢驗台灣出口物價是否因菜單成本導致在匯率變動幅度不同時，產生不同程度調整加成的出口定價行為，導致不對稱匯率轉嫁。 實證結果顯示，當匯率變動幅度低於門檻2.5%時，調整出口價格的幅度為27%。反之，當匯率變動幅度超過門檻值時，相較於前者，調價幅度增加至42%。經檢定兩者有顯著差異，證實有不對稱匯率轉嫁。上述不對稱匯率轉嫁的實證結果與理論預期並未完全相符。我們認為可能的原因在於出口商考量當期市佔率對未來利潤的潛在影響力，因此即使當期匯率變動幅度小，仍選擇微幅調價，藉以維持市場優勢與價格競爭力。亦即菜單成本可能並非影響其定價行為的關鍵因素。此外，廠商也有可能考量其在短期無法立即因應需求而擴張產能，因此即使匯率變動幅度小，仍選擇調價穩定進口價格，如此可避免因產能不足無法接單而流失客戶。再者，受限於資料的取得，我們採用總體出口物價資料，因此僅能呈現出平均的定價行為，而無法凸顯個別產業的出口定價行為。上述皆有可能是造成理論預期與實證結果不完全一致的原因。 為修正前兩篇使用總體資料的缺點，並進一步瞭解出口商因應匯率變動時是否依不同目標市場決定不同的調整加成幅度，在第三篇中本文使用人造纖維梭織布產業資料，主要探討在不完全競爭市場的結構下，出口商面對匯率變動時的「市場取價」行為。由於紡織業為台灣創匯產業，早期以出口胚布和成衣服飾品為主。到1980年代以後，逐漸地轉為以出口紗與成品布為主。在2005年全面取消全球紡織品配額後，紡織業的競爭更加激烈。儘管台灣有許多紡織廠外移至大陸及東南亞國家生產，使得台灣布料的出口額逐年減少。然而，台灣的人造纖維梭織布的出口單價卻有上升的趨勢。因此，本文主要探討台灣自1999年至2009年，人造纖維梭織布出口至美國、中國、香港及印尼等前四大出口目的國，因應匯率變動的出口定價行為是否具有市場取價的特性。此研究有助於我們瞭解產業競爭的過程與廠商的定價行為。實證結果顯示，台灣人纖梭織布的出口有市場取價的能力。對於出口至美國及香港的人纖梭織布，出口商會因應匯率等比例調整加成，自行吸收匯率變動對進口價格的影響，以穩定進口價格(即 local currency pricing stability)。對於出口至中國及印尼的人纖梭織布，則未有明顯的證據支持類似的調價行為。