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Nonlinear Residual Income Model Abstract Residual income has been proven to be a new approach of value relevance recently. The purpose of this study is to introduces residual income completely, and hopefully make some creativeness and contribution to residual income model. This paper is a both modeling and empirical study. In modeling, we have the following results¡G (1) Next period residual income is a nonlinear function of this period residual income, when we consider managers¡¦ real option. (2) This study introduces ¡§nonlinear residual income model¡¨ into Ohlson model, therefore firms¡¦ value is a nonlinear function of this period residual income. (3) This paper develops an option-based valuation model. According to this paper, equity value consists of the expected value from maintaining current operations, plus the value of the (put) option to discontinue operations at date t+1, and value of the (call) option to expand operations at date t+1. Empirical tests based on 27,536 firm-year observations from 1991-99 supports the above predictions of (1) and (2). In addition to the traditional OLS, this paper applies a new statistical approach--Sliced Inversed Regression (SIR). By SIR, we identify that our data has nonlinear components. This paper provides an alternative choice of valuation model and suggests that future research should approach the basic of value drivers.

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The sources of construction business for local firms have been shifted gradually to oversea market over years due to domestic economic recession. Nevertheless, the revenue seems standstill against to the growing contract amounts since the cost has been encroached on the present cost estimation procedure which based on personal instincts, experiences and simple formula that out of ability to identify the future uncertainties and frame the flexible management in advance under drastic business environment. To enhance the managerial insight and flexibility of evaluation process for the future uncertainties, we proposed and constructed a real optional model of risk cost upon traditional cost evaluation process. As a result of experiment, the sources of uncertainties and the flexibilities for management could be observed and directed clearly to against the risk without subjective or instinctive recognization anymore. Seveal occasions of application of real option value have been suggested in this study several important key points should be emphasized before using it: neither profit/loss nor price for accounting can be promised with the real option value; rather an expectable goal for managers to achieve. Appropriate flexible activities should be studied and approached before making decisions to acquire real option value. Maximized overall real option value could be a powerful competition tool for any company that tries to adopt real option approach to profit estimation if the interaction and synergy of real option among individual projects could be integrated effectively. Under the support of authority and interorganization commitment, the real option process should be learned and modified evolutionary according to dynamic business environment then becomes a strategic advantage.

The purpose of this dissertation is to explore how the economic return of a software investment can be assessed and managed. This topic has been studied in research and has been a concern for firms making software investments. In order to study this we need a model of the underlying factors affecting the economic return. Assessing and managing the return of a software investment is been argued to be difficult due to specific economic characteristics of a software investment, i.e. high degree of intangible consequences and uncertainty about the total investment cost. Given these characteristics it is has been concluded that it is difficult to derive a return function. In this dissertation we question this conclusion and propose a comprehensive model to assess and manage the intangibles and the underlying uncertainty. The model is deduced from general assumptions of the economic behavior of the firm. To develop the model we analyze the relevance of intangibles in relation to the economic purpose of making a software investment. Based on this a new way of deriving a cash flow function for a software investments is defined. Further it is analyzed how the underlying uncertainty of a software investment can be managed. The analysis uses a quantitative approach and methods from financial economics. It includes how the application of a real option and portfolio approach can reduce the uncertainty in a software investment and the role of efficient software platforms. The relation between software platforms and the opportunity to create different types of real options for future development is inferred from empirical studies. The studies in this dissertation show how a managerial view on a software investment corresponds with the overall economic goal of the firm. They also show how a strategic value of a software investment can be created, assessed and managed.

Trois chapitres constituent cette thèse.Le premier traite des performances des modèles de valorisation traditionnels. Au travers une littérature détaillée, il met en exergue les facteurs qui impactent la structure financière ainsi que des ajustements théoriques en vue d’améliorer les différentes méthodes de valorisation. Puis, il aborde la création de valeur issue d’opérations de contrôle et expose les méthodes à privilégier en fonction de contextes déterminés. Il présente ensuite des études statistiques visant à attester de la fiabilité et de la pertinence des méthodes traditionnelles.Le deuxième est dédié à l’évaluation de la décision d’investissement par l’approche des options réelles. Tout d’abord, un cadre définit leur modélisation et leur niveau d’utilisation actuelle par les praticiens. Ensuite, la littérature étudiée développe les interactions des différentes catégories d’options présentes au sein d’un même projet d’investissement. Elle dévoile, notamment, les fondements des modèles de l’option d’attente, qui permet de déterminer le moment opportun pour investir, de l’option de désinvestissement, y compris au sein de contextes particuliers, et de l’option de croissance, qui affecte les choix de diversification et de stratégies d’acquisition. Ces différents modèles font l’objet d’applications pratiques.Enfin, le troisième s’attache à mettre en lumière l’évaluation de la structure du passif financier par l’approche des options réelles. Les modèles optionnels décrits dans la littérature proposent une nouvelle répartition de la valeur d’entreprise entre une valeur économique des capitaux propres et de la dette nette. Puis, les articles étudiés évoquent l’intégration des problèmes d’agence et du refinancement de la dette à partir de modèles optionnels. Enfin, trois études statistiques ont pour objectif de comparer des valorisations de sociétés depuis des méthodes traditionnelles et depuis celle des options réelles. Il s’agit de déterminer si la méthode des options octroie un surplus de valeur aux capitaux propres, de par la prise en compte d’une dette nette économique. Par ailleurs, les analyses réalisées visent à attester de la pertinence et de la fiabilité de la méthode des options réelles par rapport à aux méthodes traditionnelles. / This thesis is organized around three chapters.The first one deals with performances of traditional valuation methods. A detailed literature review highlights the factors that affect the financial structure and theoretical adjustments to improve the different valuation methods. Furthermore, the chapter is dedicated to value creation from control operations and outlines the preferred methods according to specific contexts. Finally, it presents statistical studies to demonstrate the reliability and relevance of traditional methods.The second chapter focuses on the assessment of the investment decision by the real options approach. First, their modeling framework is defined as well as their level of current use by practitioners. Then, the studied literature develops the interactions of different categories of options present within the same investment project. It reveals, in particular, the foundation for models of standby option, which determines the appropriate time to invest, the disinvestment option, including in particular contexts, and the growth option, which affects the choices of diversification and acquisition strategies. These different models are subject to practical applications.The third chapter aims to highlight the assessment of the financial liability structure by the real options approach. Optional models described in the literature suggest a new division of the enterprise value between economic value of equity and net debt. Moreover, the articles studied focus on the integration of agency and debt refinancing problems when using optional templates. Finally, three statistical studies aim to compare the valuation of companies based on traditional and real options methods in order to determine whether the options method gives a surplus value to equity by the inclusion of an economic net det. Furthermore, the purpose of the analyses is to attest to the relevance and reliability of the real options method compared to traditional methods.

Biotechnology generated solutions have been hailed as potential cures to many of the problems facing the world today. New therapeutics will eradicate disease, new agricultural products will solve food shortages, and industrial application will improve productivity with reduced environmental impact. Despite the much anticipated benefits of biotechnology, the industry faces significant challenges that must be overcome in the coming decades. Biotechnology is an inherently complex field with a high degree of uncertainty and associated risks. In addition to the risk associated with project development and delivery, businesses looking to extract an economic return from the provision of biotechnology products and services face significant financial risk. This is exacerbated by the long lead times in biotechnology product development and the expensive nature of research and development. This thesis looks investigates the multi faceted problem of biotechnology valuation in Australia using a multi method approach designed to provide greater insight into the valuation challenges facing the industry and identify key value drivers. The approach incorporates a broad qualitative investigation, complimented by more focused quantitative studies into specific valuation issues surrounding IPO and project valuation. Australian biotechnology firms face a significant challenge to raise sufficient capital in order to remain internationally competitive. The current industry structure and funding mechanisms encourage creation of small firms with narrow pipelines, exacerbating the risk of company failure and acting as an impediment to sustainability and, therefore, investment in the sector. Despite the challenges facing the Australian biotechnology industry, the nation possesses a competitive advantage in the strength of local science which, if fully leveraged, should see the development of an internationally competitive industry. Through improved funding mechanisms which encourage the creation of sustainable business models, increased investor participation in the industry should see a greater portion of the value generated through biotechnology retained by local participants. An IPO is likely the largest single capital raising in a company's history. A quantitative investigation into the factors influencing the amount of underpricing and money left on the table for Australian biotechnology IPOs found that the amount of money left on the table was more critical than the level of underpricing. Additionally the impact of market sentiment on biotechnology IPOs was investigated with increased media coverage found to be positively related to the amount of money left on the table. Using project valuation models, the drivers of value over the life of a typical biotechnology project were identified. Key drivers of biotechnology value are commercial viability, coupled with development cost and time. The ability of management to control these elements is crucial. Analysis of project valuations using a traditional DCF model found value estimates exhibited a greater level of uncertainty than those calculated using more contemporary methods of decision tree and real option analysis. Additionally, incorporation of management flexibility into valuation assessment using real options techniques increased the perceived value of biotechnology projects. The value of management flexibility was found to be most relevant for early stage projects where the option to abandon was found to greatly influence values.

Evaluation of the real price for financial assets has been an important issue. This thesis used four approaches, namely free cash flow method, dividend discount method, C.R.R Binomial Numerical Analysis of real-option theory and capital-budgeting techniques, to evaluate the real value of REITs in Taiwan. Fubon No.1, Cathy No.1, Shin Kong No.1 are chosen as cases to study in this thesis. This thesis analyzes their financial statements and historical data to estimate the parameters in those models and compute the real price of REITs. Our empirical results show that the real prices estimated from the free cash flow approach are higher than market prices by 30%. The real prices from the dividend discount method are higher than average market price by 300%.The real prices from the third approach, present value method, are higher than market prices by 10%. After considering the opportunities managers hold by the real-option approach, the real prices are higher than the market value by 200%. These results suggested the current prices of REITs in Taiwan are undervalued. It appears that anchoring tendency might be an explanation that prices of REITs in Taiwan are fixed in certain levels.